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Prediction of Preschool Education Demand under China’s Three-Child Policy: Based on the Demographic Trends from 2024–2050

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Abstract

The impact of population policy changes on the demand for educational resources has long been a central focus of scholarly inquiry. With the recent implementation of China’s three-child policy, there arises the potential for shifts in preschool enrollment patterns, thereby influencing the demand for preschool educational resources. This study seeks to elucidate these implications by leveraging population forecasting software (PADIS-INT) to project population growth trends and estimate the corresponding demand for preschool institutions and teachers in China from 2024 to 2050. Drawing upon data from China’s seventh census as the foundational dataset, our analysis reveals that the population aged 0–6 years exhibits a wave-like decreasing trend from 2024 to 2050. Furthermore, our projections indicate a decrease in demand for kindergarten facilities, full-time teachers, and healthcare workers compared to the demand observed in 2022. Conversely, there is a projected increase in demand for nursery facilities and teaching positions during the same period. These findings carry significant implications for policymakers, suggesting the potential repurposing of surplus kindergarten resources to accommodate nursery services for children under the age of 3. Such reallocation stands to enhance the efficiency of childcare resource allocation and address emerging demographic trends.

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Acknowledgements

This research was fully funded by Shanghai “Super Postdoctoral” Incentive Program (Project #: 2022487), and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Project #: 2023T160428).

Funding

Data collection and preliminary analysis were sponsored by Shanghai Human Resources and Social Security Bureau [Grant number 2022487]; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [Grant number 2023T160428]. We have no conflicts of interest to disclose.

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  1. Shanghai Institute of Early Childhood Education, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China

    Yifang Wang

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Correspondence to Yifang Wang.

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The study was approved by University Committee on Human Research Protection of Shanghai Normal University with approval number “2023035” in advance of data collection.

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Wang, Y. Prediction of Preschool Education Demand under China’s Three-Child Policy: Based on the Demographic Trends from 2024–2050. Early Childhood Educ J 53, 1823–1834 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10643-024-01709-6

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