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Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change

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Abstract

Delineating geographic shifts in crop cultivation under future climate conditions provides information for land use and water management planning, and insights to meeting future demand. A suitability modeling approach was used to map the thermal niche of almond cultivation and phenological development across the Western United States (US) through the mid-21st century. The Central Valley of California remains thermally suitable for almond cultivation through the mid-21st century, and opportunities for expansion appear in the Willamette Valley of western Oregon, which is currently limited by insufficient heat accumulation. Modeled almond phenology shows a compression in reproductive development under future climate. By the mid-21st century, almond phenology in the Central Valley showed ~ 2-week delay in chill accumulation and ~ 1- and ~ 2.5-week advance in the timing of bloom and harvest, respectively. Although other climatic and non-climatic restrictions to almond cultivation may exist, these results highlight opportunities for shifts in the geography of high-value cropping systems, which may influence growers’ long-term land use decisions, and shape regional water and agricultural industry discussions regarding climate change adaptation options.

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Funding

This research was supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture competitive grant, award number 2011-68002-30191. Additional funding was provided by the United States Department of Agriculture Northwest Climate Hub.

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Correspondence to Lauren E. Parker.

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Parker, L.E., Abatzoglou, J.T. Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change. Climatic Change 147, 211–224 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2118-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2118-6

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