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Evaluation of three simulation approaches for assessing yield of rainfed sunflower in a Mediterranean environment for climate change impact modelling

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Abstract

The determination of the impact of climate change on crop yield at a regional scale requires the development of new modelling methodologies able to generate accurate yield estimates with reduced available data. In this study, different simulation approaches for assessing yield have been evaluated. In addition to two well-known models (AquaCrop and Stewart function), a methodological proposal considering a simplified approach using an empirical model (SOM) has been included in the analysis. This empirical model was calibrated using rainfed sunflower experimental field data from three sites located in Andalusia, southern Spain, and validated using two additional locations, providing very satisfactory results compared with the other models with higher data requirements. Thus, only requiring weather data (accumulated rainfall from the beginning of the season fixed on September 1st, and maximum temperature during flowering) the approach accurately described the temporal and spatial yield variability observed (RMSE = 391 kg ha−1). The satisfactory results for assessing yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions obtained in this study demonstrate the utility of empirical approaches with few data requirements, providing an excellent decision tool for climate change impact analyses at a regional scale, where available data is very limited.

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Acknowledgments

Authors would like to express their gratitude RAEA-sunflower technicians for their collaboration. Part of this study was funded by grant P10-EXC10-0036 / AGR-6126 from the Regional Government of Andalusia. The excellent revision by the anonymous referees is greatly appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. IFAPA—Alameda del Obispo, Junta de Andalucía, Post Office Box 3092, 14080, Córdoba, Spain

    J. García-López, Ignacio J. Lorite, R. García-Ruiz & J. Domínguez

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  1. J. García-López
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  2. Ignacio J. Lorite
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  3. R. García-Ruiz
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  4. J. Domínguez
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Correspondence to Ignacio J. Lorite.

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García-López, J., Lorite, I.J., García-Ruiz, R. et al. Evaluation of three simulation approaches for assessing yield of rainfed sunflower in a Mediterranean environment for climate change impact modelling. Climatic Change 124, 147–162 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1067-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1067-6

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