Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Determination of the uncertainties of the German emission inventories for particulate matter and aerosol precursors using Monte-Carlo analysis

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper presents the application of a Monte-Carlo simulation for assessing the uncertainties of German 2005 emissions of particulate matter (PM10 & PM2.5) and aerosol precursors (SO2, NOx, NH3 and NMVOC) carried out in the PAREST (PArticle REduction STrategies) research project. For the uncertainty analysis the German Federal Environment Agency’s emission inventory was amended and integrated with a model on the disaggregation of energy balance data. A series of algorithms was developed in order to make efficient and pragmatic use of available literature and expert judgement data for uncertainties of emission model input data. The inventories for PM10 (95 %-confidence interval: −16 %/+23 %), PM2.5 (−15 %/+19 %) and NOx (−10 %/+23 %) appear most uncertain, while the inventories for SO2 (−9 %/+9 %), NMVOC (−10 %/+12 %) and NH3 (−13 %/+13 %) show a higher accuracy. The source categories adding the most relevant contributions to overall uncertainty vary across the pollutants and comprise agriculture, mobile machinery in agriculture and forestry, construction sites, small businesses/carpentries, cigarette smoke and fireworks, road traffic, solvent use and stationary combustion. The PAREST results on relative uncertainties have been quoted in the German Informative Inventory Reports since 2012. A comparison shows that the PAREST results for Germany are within the range of (for NH3: close below) other European countries’ results on air pollutant inventory uncertainties as reported in the 2013 Informative Inventory Reports.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aardenne JA (2002) Uncertainties in emission inventories. Thesis Wageningen University, ISBN 90-5808-641-0

  • Builtjes P, Theloke J, Stern R, Joerss W (2010) PAREST-final report to the German federal environment agency (UBA), FKZ 206 43 200/01 “Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung”, UBA-TEXTE Nr. 9/2012, Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt, ISSN 1862–4804

  • CEIP 2013: EMEP Centre on Emission Inventories and Projections: CLRTAP Inventory Submissions 2013; available in the internet: http://www.ceip.at/status-of-reporting/2013-submissions/; accessed 8 August 2013

  • Dämmgen U (2008) Expert Judgement on uncertainties of German agricultural emissions, 01. 04.2008.

  • Dämmgen U, Haenel HD, Rösemann C, Conrad J, Lüttich M, Döhler H, Eurich-Menden B, Laubach P, Müller-Lindenlauf M, Osterburg B (2009) Calculations of emissions from German agriculture—national emission inventory report (NIR) 2009 for 2007. Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut Bundesforschungsinstitut für Ländliche Räume, Wald und Fischerei (vTI) Braunschweig, 2009. ISSN 0376–0723, ISBN 978-3-86576-049-4.

  • Degel, M Joerss W (2009) Aufbereitung von Daten der Emissionserklärungen gemäß 11. BImSchV aus dem Jahre 2004 für die Verwendung bei der UNFCCC-und UNECE-Berichterstattung—Teilbericht Stationäre Verbrennungsmotoren. UBA-TEXTE Nr. 45/2009, Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt, ISSN 1862–4804

  • Eggleston HS, Buendia L, Miwa K et al. (ed.) (2006) IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. Prepared by the national greenhouse gas inventories programme. Japan. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html

  • EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook—2009; EEA Technical report No 6/2009, Copenhagen, 2009; ISBN 978-92-9213-034-3; DOI 10.2800/23924; http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-emission-inventory-guidebook-2009

  • Fauser P, Sørensen P, Nielsen M, Winther M, Plejdrup M, Hoffmann L, Gyldenkærne S, Hjorth Mikkelsen M, Albrektsen R, Lyck E, Thomsen M, Hjelgaard K, Nielsen O (2011) Monte Carlo (Tier 2) uncertainty analysis of Danish Greenhouse gas emission inventory. Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management 1(3–4):145–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Handke V, Joerss W, Pfitzner R, Brinkschneider F, Schollenberger H (2004) Das Qualitäts-System-Emissionsinventare-Handbuch. Report to the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) FKZ 202 42 266; Berlin: IZT

  • Harthan R, Graichen J, Graichen V, Repenning R, Ziesing HJ, Wittke F (2007) Dokumentation der Datenqualität von Aktivitätsdaten für die Berichte über Emissionen aus stationären Feuerungen im Rahmen des Nationalen Inventarberichtes und des Monitoring Mechanismus nach RL EG 99/296; Report to the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) FKZ 204 41, Berlin, 2007

  • IPCC (2001) Good practice guidance and uncertainty management in national greenhouse gas inventories. IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Technical Support Unit

  • Joerss W, Kamburow C (2006) Bilanzierung und Modellierung emissionsrelevanter Daten zum Energieverbrauch in stationären Quellen. WerkstattBericht Nr. 78. Berlin: IZT—Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung

  • Joerss W (2010) Emissionen aus Offener Verbrennung in Deutschland. Report to the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), in the framework of the PAREST project FKZ 206 43 200/01 „Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung, UBA-TEXTE Nr. 42/2013, Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt, ISSN 1862–4804

  • Joerss W, Handke V (2010), Unsicherheiten der PAREST-Referenz-Emissionsdatenbasis; Report to the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), in the framework of the PAREST project FKZ 206 43 200/01 “Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung”, UBA-TEXTE Nr. 45/2013, Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt, ISSN 1862–4804

  • Joerss W, Kugler U, Theloke J (2010) Emissionen im PAREST-Referenzszenario 2005 – 2020; Report to the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), in the framework of the PAREST project FKZ 206 43 200/01 “Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung”, UBA-TEXTE Nr. 46/2013, Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt, ISSN 1862–4804

  • Kludt R (2009) Expert Judgement on uncertainties of activity rates and emission factors for particulate matter emissions from handling of bulk materials. Berlin 26(8):2009

    Google Scholar 

  • Knörr W, Heldstab J, Kasser F, Keller M (2009) Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland. INFRAS AG Zürich, Schweiz. ifeu-Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung. Heidelberg. Commissioned by the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA). FKZ 360 16 023. Heidelberg/Zürich/Bern, 20. Juli 2009

  • Morgan MG, Henrion M (1990) Uncertainty. A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 0-521-42744-4

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Müller PH (1991) Lexikon der Stochastik. Akademie Verlag, Berlin, 5. Auflage

    Google Scholar 

  • Passant NR (2002): Estimation of Uncertainties in the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory; AEA Technology; Report No. AEAT/ENV/R/1039 issue 1

  • PBL 2009: N.J.P. Hoogervorst and A. Hoen (project management), H.S.M.A. Diederen, F.J. Dietz, A.H. Hanemaaijer, R.B.A. Koelemeijer, K. Kovar, S. Kruitwagen, P. Lagas, C.J. Peek, G.A. Rood, M. Verdonk, H.J. Westhoek, W.J. Willems (2009): Milieubalans 2009; PBL-report 500081015; ISBN: 978-90-6960-231-8

  • Rentz O, Karl U, Peter H (2002) Ermittlung und Evaluierung von Emissionsfaktoren für Feuerungsanlagen in Deutschland für die Jahre 1995, 2000 und 2010. UBA-report 299 43 142.

  • Rypdal K (2002) Uncertainties in the Norwegian emission inventories of acidifying pollutants and volatile organic compounds. In: Environmental Science & Policy, Jg. 5, H. 3, S. 233–246.

  • Schaap M, Manders AMM, Hendriks ECJ, Cnossen JM, Segers AJS, van der Gon Denier HAC, Jozwicka M, Sauter F, Velders G, Mathijssen J, Builtjes PJH (2009) Regional modelling of particulate matter for the Netherlands. Technical report BOP, research carried out for Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM), Bilthoven, Netherlands

  • Stern R (2010) Analyse der Unsicherheiten/Bandbreiten in der im PAREST-Projekt verwendeten Kausalkette Emission-Transmission-Immission; Report to the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), in the framework of the PAREST project FKZ 206 43 200/01 “Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung”, UBA-TEXTE Nr. 66/2013, Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt, ISSN 1862–4804

  • Struschka M, Zuberbühler U, Dreiseidler A, Dreizler D, Baumbach G, Hartmann H, Schmid V, Link H (2003) Ermittlung und Evaluierung der Feinstaubemissionen aus Kleinfeuerungsanlagen im Bereich der Haushalte und Kleinverbraucher sowie Ableitung von geeigneten Maßnahmen zur Emissionsminderung, Report to the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA); UBA-TEXTE 41/03, ISSN 1862–4804.

  • Struschka M, Kilgus D, Springmann M, Baumbach G (2008) Effiziente Bereitstellung aktueller Emissionsdaten für die Luftreinhaltung; Universität Stuttgart, Institut für Verfahrenstechnik und Dampfkesselwesen (IVD) UBA-FB 205 42 322. UBA-FB 001217; UBA Texte 44/08. Dessau-Roßlau, November 2008. ISSN 1862–4804.

  • Suutari R, Amann M, Cofala J, Klimont Z, Schöpp W (2001) From economic activities to critical load Exceedances in Europe – An uncertainty analysis of two scenarios of the RAINS integrated assessment model. IIASA. Laxenburg. (IIASA Interim Report, IR-01-020)

  • SYKE 2005: Air Emission Team of the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE): Kristina Saarinen, Santtu Mattila, Johanna Mikkola, Jouko Petäjä and Sirpa Silander (2005): Air Pollutant Emissions in Finland 1990–2003 – National Inventory Report to the Secretariat of the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution; 13th May 2005

  • Theloke, J (2005).: NMVOC-Emissionen aus der Lösemittelanwendung und Möglichkeiten zu ihrer Minderung. Fortschritt-Berichte VDI Reihe 15 Nr. 252. Düsseldorf: VDI-Verlag 2005

  • UBA 2012: Umweltbundesamt (Publ.): German Informative Inventory Report; submitted to the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution on 15 March 2012; available in the internet: http://iir-de-2012.wikidot.com/; accessed 8 August 2013

  • UBA 2013: Umweltbundesamt (Publ.): German Informative Inventory Report; submitted to the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution on 18 March 2013; available in the internet: http://iir-de.wikidot.com/; accessed 8 August 2013

  • van Gijlswijk R, Coenen P, Pulles T, van der Sluijs J (2004) Uncertainty assessment of NOx, SO2 and NH3 emissions in the Netherlands. (TNO-Report, R 2004/100).

  • Winiwarter W, Muik B (2010) Statistical dependence in input data of national greenhouse gas inventories: Effects on the overall inventory uncertainty. Clim Chang 103:19–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Energy & Climate, Oeko-Institut e.V., Schicklerstr. 5-7, 10179, Berlin, Germany

    Wolfram Joerss

Authors
  1. Wolfram Joerss
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wolfram Joerss.

Additional information

This article is part of a Special Issue on “Third International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories” edited by Jean Ometto and Rostyslav Bun.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Joerss, W. Determination of the uncertainties of the German emission inventories for particulate matter and aerosol precursors using Monte-Carlo analysis. Climatic Change 124, 605–616 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1028-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1028-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation