Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Climate change adaptation implications for drought risk mitigation: a perspective for India

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

There is a growing evidence that the climate change do has implications for drought vulnerable India with studies projecting future possible reductions in monsoon related rainfall in the country. The existing drought risk mitigation and response mechanisms were looked into and gaps were identified by drawing lessons from previous disasters and response mechanisms. In absence of reliable climate predictions at the scales that make them useful for policy level planning, the emphasis was on identifying no-regret adaptation options those would reduce current vulnerabilities while mainstreaming the adaptation in the long run. The most notable climate change implications for the drought vulnerable India are the enhanced preparedness with due emphasis to the community based preparedness planning, reviewing the existing monsoon and drought prediction methodologies, and establishing drought monitoring and early warning systems in association with a matching preparedness at the input level.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and hydrological cycle. Nature 419:224–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bagla P (2002) Drought exposes crack in India’s monsoon model. Science 297:1265–1266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhaskaran B, Mitchell JFB, Lavery JR, Lal M (1995) Climatic response of Indian subcontinent to doubled CO2 concentrations. Int J Climatol 15:873–892

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhattacharya S, Sharma C, Dhiman RC, Mitra AP (2006) Climate change and malaria in India. Curr Sci 90(3):369–375

    Google Scholar 

  • Blench R (1999) Seasonal climatic forecasting: Who can use it and how it can be disseminated? Natural Resource Perspectives 47. http://www.odi.org.uk/nrp/index.html. Cited 12 January 2007

  • BMTPC (1997) Vulnerability atlas of India, Parts I–III, building materials and technology promotion council, New Delhi, India

  • Bolin R, Stanford L (1998) The Northridge earthquake: community-based approaches to unmet recovery needs. Disasters 22(1):21–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bruce JP, Lee H, Haites EF (1996) Climate change 1995: economic and social dimensions of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Bruwer JJ (1993) Drought policy in the Republic of South Africa. In: Wilhite DA (ed) Drought assessment, management and planning: theory and case studies. Kluwer, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  • Burton I (2004) Vulnerability and adaptive response in the context of climate and climate change. Clim Change 36(1–2):185–196

    Google Scholar 

  • Carter TR, Kankaanpaa S (2003) A preliminary examination of adaptation to climate change in Finland. The Finnish Environment 640, Ministry of Environment, Finland, p 66

  • Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (2006) India country profile of natural disasters, EM-DAT: The International Disaster Database. http://www.em-dat.net/disasters/Visualisation/profiles/countryprofile.php. Cited 6 Mar 2006

  • Christoplos I, Mitchel J, Liljelund A (2001) Re-framing risk: The changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness. Disasters 25(3):185–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (2004) Drought 2002: A Report, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, New Delhi, p 190

  • Ebrahim A (2001) NGO behavior and development discourse: cases from western India. Voluntas. Int J Volunt Nonprofit Organ 12(2):79–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrington J, Lobo C (1997) Scaling up participatory watershed development in India: Lessons from the Indo-German watershed development programme. Natural Resource Perspectives 17. http://www.odi.org.uk/nrp/index.html. Cited 12 December 2006

  • Fussel HM (2007) Adaptation to climate change: the obvious and not so obvious. International Symposium on Global Sustainability-Social Systems and Technological Strategies, Kyoto, Japan, 15–16 Jan 2007

  • Gadgil S, Srinivasan J, Ravi S, Nanjundiah K, Kumar K, Munot AA, Kumar KR (2002) On forecasting the Indian summer monsoon: the intriguing season of 2002. Curr Sci 83(4):394–403

    Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S, Vinayachandran PN, Francis PA (2003) Droughts of the Indian summer monsoon: role of clouds over the Indian Ocean. Curr Sci 85(12):1713–1719

    Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S, Rajeevan M, Nanjundiah R (2005) Monsoon prediction-why yet another failure? Curr Sci 88(9):1389–1400

    Google Scholar 

  • Glantz MH (2003) The ties that bind: the connection between climate and society. Climate affairs: a primer. Island Press, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Gosain AK, Rao S, Basuray D (2006) Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Indian river basins. Curr Sci 90(3):346–353

    Google Scholar 

  • Government of India (1994) Guidelines for watershed development. Department of Land Resources, Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India, New Delhi

  • Government of India (2006) Guidelines for Hariyali (2003). Department of Land Resources, Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India, New Delhi. http://dolr.nic.in/HariyaliGuidelines.htm. Cited 18 October 2006

  • Hayes MJ, Wilhelmi OV, Knutson CL (2004) Reducing drought risk: Bridging theory and practice. Nat Hazards Rev 5(2):106–113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • High Powered Committee (2002) Disaster management report, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, India, p 107

  • Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, Van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm. Cited 20 Dec 2006

  • Ivey JL, Smithers J, De Loe RC, Kreutzwiser RD (2004) Community capacity for adaptation to climate induced water shortages: Linking institutional complexity and local actors. Environ Manag 33(1):36–47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kane S, Shogren JF (2000) Linking adaptation and mitigation in climate change policy. Clim Change 45:75–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kerr JM, Pangare G, Pangare VL (2002) Watershed development projects in India: an evaluation, Research Report 127, IFPRI, Washington, p 86

  • Kothyari UC, Singh VP (1996) Rainfall and temperature trends in India. Hydrol Process 10:357–372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishna A (2003) Partnerships between local governments and community-based organizations: Exploring the scope for synergy. Public Admin Dev 23:361–371

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar RK (2002) Regional climate scenarios, TERI workshop on climate change: policy options for India, New Delhi, 5–6 Sept 2002

  • Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar RK, Kumar KK, Pant GB (1994) Diurnal asymmetry of surface temperature trends over India. Geophys Res Lett 21:677–680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar K, Hoerling M, Rajagopalan B (2005) Advancing Indian monsoon rainfall predictions. Geophys Res Lett 32(L08704):1–4

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar RK, Sahai AK, Kumar KK, Patwardhan SK, Mishra PK, Revadekar JV, Kamala K, Pant GB (2006) High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century. Curr Sci 90(3):334–345

    Google Scholar 

  • Lal M, Cubasch U, Voss R, Waszkewitz J (1995) Effect of transient increase in greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols on monsoon climate. Curr Sci 69(9):752–763

    Google Scholar 

  • Lal M, Harasawa H, Murdiyarso D (2001a) Asia. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK, pp 877–912

    Google Scholar 

  • Lal M, Nozawa T, Emori S, Harasawa H, Takahashi K, Kimoto M, Abe-Ouchi A, Nkajima T, Takemura T, Numaguti A (2001b) Future climate change: implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability. Curr Sci 81:1196–1207

    Google Scholar 

  • Lim B, Spanger-Siegfried E (2005) Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change: developing strategies, policies and measures. Cambridge University Press, UK, p 258

    Google Scholar 

  • Lonergan S (1998) Climate warming and India. In: Dinar A, Mendelsohn R, Evenson R et al (eds) Measuring the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. World Bank Technical Paper No 402, Washington DC

  • Mall RK, Singh R, Gupta A, Sinivasan G, Rathore LS (2006) Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: A review. Clim Change 78:445–478

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, UK, p 1008

    Google Scholar 

  • Meinke H, Stone RC (2005) Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: The new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations. Clim Change 70:221–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mileti DS (1999) Disasters by design: a reassessment of natural hazards in the United States. Joseph Henry, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of Home Affairs (2004) Local level risk management: Indian experience. An initiative under the GoI-UNDP disaster risk management programme. Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, National Disaster Management Division, New Delhi, p 15

  • Moench M, Dixit A (2004) Adaptive capacity and livelihood resilience: adaptive strategies for responding to floods and droughts in South Asia. Institute of Social and Environmental Transition, Boulder and Institute of Social and Environmental Transition, Nepal, p 214

  • Murphy AH (1993) What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Am Meteorol Soc 8:281–293

    Google Scholar 

  • National Disaster Management Act (2005) Ministry of Law and Justice, Government of India, New Delhi, India, p 29

  • National Institute of Disaster Management (2005) Workshop on Drought Relief Management for Tangible and Intangible Benefits: Revisiting the Priorities, National Institute of Disaster Management, Government of India, New Delhi

  • National Institute of Disaster Management (2006) National disaster risk management program. Mid-term Review Report, National Institute of Disaster Management, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, India

  • Navone HD, Ceccatto HA (1994) Predicting Indian monsoon rainfall: A neural network approach. Clim Dyn 10:305–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Brien K, Leichenko R, Kelkar U, Venema H, Aandahl G, Tompkins H, Javed A, Bhadwal S, Barg S, Nygaard L, West J (2004) Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: Climate change and globalization in India. Glob Environ Change 14:303–313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pant GB, Kumar R, Borgaonkar HP (1999) Climate and its long-term variability over the western Himalaya during the past two centuries. In: Dash SK, Bahadur J (eds) The Himalayan environment. New Age International (P) Limited, New Delhi, pp 172–184

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearce L (2003) Disaster management and community planning, and public participation: How to achieve sustainable hazard mitigation? Nat Hazards 28(2–3):211–228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pittock AB, Jones RN (2000) Adaptation to what and why? Environ Monit Assess 61:9–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramachandran R (2003) Forecasting the monsoon. Frontline, 20 (10). http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2010/stories/20030523003809900.htm. Cited 22 Jan 2007

  • Rathore MS (2004) State level analysis of drought policies and impacts in Rajasthan, India. Working Paper 93, Drought Series Paper 6, International Water Management Institute, Sri Lanka, p 29

  • Ray KCS (2000) Role of drought early warning systems for sustainable agricultural research in India. In: Wilhite DA, Sivakumar MVK, Wood DA (eds) Early warning systems for drought preparedness and drought management. Proceedings of an expert group meeting, September 5–7, 2000, Lisbon, Portugal. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  • Redmond K (1991) Climate monitoring and indices. In: Wilhite DA, Wood DA, Kay PA (eds) Proceedings of the Seminar and Workshop Drought Management and Planning, Denver, Colorado, May 30–June 1, 1990. International Drought Information Center. University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Richards M (2003) Poverty reduction, equity and climate change: challenges for global governance. Natural Resource Perspectives 83. http://www.odi.org.uk/nrp/index.html. Cited 18 January 2007

  • Rocha LJ, Christoplos I (2001) Disaster mitigation and preparedness on the Nicaraguan Post-Mitch agenda. Disasters 25(3):240–250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roy SS, Balling RC (2004) Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India. Int J Climatol 24:457–466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sainath P (1996) Everybody loves a good drought. Penguin, India, p 470

    Google Scholar 

  • Saith N, Slingo J (2006) The role of the Midden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002. Int J Climatol 26:1361–1378

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Samra JS (2004) Review and analysis of drought monitoring, declaration and management in India. Working Paper 84, Drought Series Paper 2, International Water Management Institute, Sri Lanka, p 31

  • Saravanan VS (2003) Institutional analysis of watershed management in India: case for investment in a watershed economy. In: Proceedings of conference on market development of water and waste technologies through environmental economics, Centre de Sciences Humaines, New Delhi

  • Selvaraju R (2003) Impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on Indian foodgrain production. Int J Climatol 23:187–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen S (1999) Some aspects of state—NGO relationships in India the post-independence era. Dev Change 30:327–355

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaw R, Prabhakar SVRK, Fujieda A (2005) Community level climate change adaptation and policy issues: a case study from Gujarat, India. Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies. Kyoto University, Japan, p 59

    Google Scholar 

  • Sikka AK, Sharda VN (2002) Land and water care through participatory watershed management in India: An overview. In: Proceedings of 12th ISCO Conference, Beijing, China, 26–31 May 2002. Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing, China

  • Singh N, Sontakke NA (2002) On climatic fluctuations and environmental changes of the Indo-Gangetic plains, India. Clim Change 52:287–313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh RS, Narain P, Sharma KD (2001) Climate changes in Luni river basin of arid western Rajasthan (India). Vayu Mandal 31(1–4):103–106

    Google Scholar 

  • Smit B, Pilifosova O (2001) Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, UK, pp 877–912

    Google Scholar 

  • Smit B, Burton I, Klein RJT, Wandel J (2000) An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability. Clim Change 45(1):223–251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smithers J, Smit B (1997) Human adaptation to climatic variability and change. Glob Environ Change 7(2):129–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Someshwar S, Subbiah AR (2003) Institutional responses to 2002–03 drought in Rajasthan and Orissa: Potential of climate information for proactive drought management. International resources Institute, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center and UNDP Report, United Nations Development Program, New Delhi, p 49

  • Spanger-Siegfried E, Dougherty B (2005) User’s guidebook. In: Lim B, Spanger-Siegfried E (eds) Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change: developing strategies, policies and measures. UNDP, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 5–28

    Google Scholar 

  • Subbiah AR (2002) Establishing common ground to bring together disaster reduction and climate change communities-Challenges and opportunities. Paper presented at UNDP Expert Group Meeting on Integrating Disaster Reduction and Adaptation to Climate Change, Havana, June 17–19 2002

  • Svoboda M, LeComte D, Hayes M, Heim R, Gleason K, Angel J, Rippey B, Tinker R, Palecki M, Stooksbury D, Miskus D, Stephens S (2002) The drought monitor. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1181–1190

    Google Scholar 

  • Swami SK (2001) Management of drought in India. UNDP Sub-regional seminar on drought mitigation, Teheran, 28–29 August 2001

  • The Energy Resources Institute (2001) India’s first national communication to UNFCCC. The Energy Resources Institute, New Delhi, India

  • Thenkabail PS, Gamage MSDN, Smakhtin VU (2004) The use of remote sensing data for drought assessment and monitoring in south west Asia. Research Report 85, International Water Management Institute, Sri Lanka

  • Thomalla F, Downing T, Spanger-Siegried E, Han G, Rockstrom J (2006) Reducing hazard vulnerability: Towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. Disasters 30(1):39–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Timmermann A, Oberuber J, Bacher A, Esch M, Latif M, Roeckner E (1999) Increased El-Nino frequency in a climatic model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature 398:694–696

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ, Downing TE, Kuik OJ, Smith JB (2003) Distributional aspects of climate change impacts. OECD workshop on the benefits of climate policy: Improving information for policy makers. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, France, p 30

  • Turton C, Bottrall A (1997) Water resource development in the drought prone uplands. Natural Resource Perspectives 18. http://www.odi.org.uk/nrp/index.html. Cited 18 January 2007

  • Venkateswarlu J (1987) Technological and sociopolitical adaptation and adjustments to drought: The Indian experience. In: Wilhite DA, Easterling WE, Wood DA (eds) Planning for drought toward a reduction of societal vulnerability. Westview Press, London, pp 391–408

    Google Scholar 

  • Vörösmarty CJ, Green P, Salisbury J, Lammers RB (2000) Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289:284–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA (ed) (1993) Drought assessment, management, and planning: theory and case studies. Kluwer Acad Publ, Boston, Mass

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA (1996) A methodology for drought preparedness. Nat Hazards 13:229–252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA (2002) Combating drought through preparedness. Nat Resour Forum 26:275–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA, Svoboda MD (2000) Drought early warning systems in the context of drought preparedness and mitigation. In: Wilhite DA, Sivakumar MVK, Wood DA (eds) Early warning systems for drought preparedness and drought management. Proceedings of an expert group meeting, Lisbon, Portugal, 5–7 September 2000. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  • ZENEB and UNDP (2001) Proceedings of international workshop on measuring vulnerability to food insecurity under the conditions of drought, Bonn, Germany, 12–13 October 2001

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to S. V. R. K. Prabhakar.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Prabhakar, S.V.R.K., Shaw, R. Climate change adaptation implications for drought risk mitigation: a perspective for India. Climatic Change 88, 113–130 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9330-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9330-8

Keywords

Navigation