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Accuracy of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium Model Among Women with LCIS

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Abstract

Purpose

The Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) model predicts risk of invasive breast cancer risk based on age, race, family history, breast density, and history of benign breast disease, including lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS). However, validation studies for this model included few women with LCIS. We sought to evaluate the accuracy of the BCSC model among this cohort.

Methods

Women with LCIS diagnosed between 1983 and 2017 were identified from a prospectively maintained database. The BCSC score was calculated; those with prior breast cancer, unknown breast density, age < 35 years or > 74 years, or with history of chemoprevention use were excluded. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate incidence rates. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to analyze the discriminative capacity of the model.

Results

1302 women with LCIS were included. At a median follow-up of 7 years, 152 women (12%) developed invasive cancer (6 with bilateral disease). Cumulative incidences of invasive breast cancer were 7.1% (95% CI 5.6–8.7) and 13.3% (95% CI 10.9–15.6), respectively, and the median BCSC risk scores were 4.9 and 10.4, respectively, at 5 and 10 years. The median 10-year BCSC score was significantly lower than the 10–year Tyrer-Cuzick score (10.4 vs 20.8, p < 0.001). The ROC curve scores (AUC) for BCSC at 5 and 10 years were 0.59 (95% CI 0.52–0.66) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.52–0.64), respectively.

Conclusion

The BCSC model has moderate accuracy in predicting invasive breast cancer risk among women with LCIS with fair discrimination for risk prediction between individuals.

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Data availability

The data that supports these findings are available by reasonable request from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

Editorial support in the preparation of the manuscript was provided by Hannah Rice, BA, ELS at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.

Funding

The preparation of this study was supported in part by NIH/NCi Cancer Center Support Grant No. P30CA008748 to Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA

    Idil Eroglu

  2. Breast Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, 300 East 66th Street, New York, NY, 10065, USA

    Idil Eroglu, Anna Park & Melissa L. Pilewskie

  3. Biostatistics Service, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA

    Varadan Sevilimedu

  4. Division of Breast Surgery, Department of Surgery, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

    Tari A. King

  5. Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

    Tari A. King

  6. Breast Oncology Program, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute/Brigham and Women’s Cancer Center, Boston, MA, USA

    Tari A. King

Authors
  1. Idil Eroglu
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  2. Varadan Sevilimedu
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  3. Anna Park
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  4. Tari A. King
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  5. Melissa L. Pilewskie
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Contributions

MP, IE, TK, and VS conceptualized and designed the project and performed interpretation. VS performed the data analysis. IE and AP performed data collection. IE drafted the manuscript. IE, TK, VS, and MP assisted in the critical revision of the manuscript; all authors approved the final manuscript as submitted.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Melissa L. Pilewskie.

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The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

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Eroglu, I., Sevilimedu, V., Park, A. et al. Accuracy of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium Model Among Women with LCIS. Breast Cancer Res Treat 194, 257–264 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-021-06499-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-021-06499-8

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