Abstract
Nitellopsis obtusa was first documented in the St. Lawrence River in 1974 and likely spread via human-assisted activity to at-least seven states in the U.S.A. This invasive macroalga is a nuisance for native plants, animals, and recreational activities. Because eradication of invasive species is more difficult after establishment, early detection plans are an important tool in preventing and slowing their spread. Macro-scale data analyses have improved our ability to predict changes in freshwater ecosystems and are important to assess and control invasive species. We developed species distribution models (random forest, boosted regression trees, and Maxent) using presence records of N. obtusa coupled with publicly available in-lake temperature and chemistry (bicarbonate and chloride) model data and landscape scale lake watershed characteristics for over 48,000 individual lakes in the Midwest and northeast U.S.A. January and July–August–September growing degrees days, bicarbonate concentrations, and chloride concentrations correlate with high relative likelihood of occurrence. Our analyses found N. obtusa likelihood of occurrence is high in developed, lake-dense regions with ~ 2000 July–August–September growing degree days, 1–3 mMol bicarbonate, and > 10 mg L−1 chloride. Based on relative likelihood of occurrence predictions, N. obtusa has the potential to spread to new lakes within Midwest and northeast USA states that currently do not have known populations of N. obtusa, including inland lakes in Illinois, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
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Data availability
The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available in Supplementary Information 3.
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Acknowledgements
This research was funded by the Michigan Chapter of the North American Lake Management Society to EKM, the Michigan Space Grant Consortium (NNX15AJ20H) to EKM, the Grand Valley State University Presidential Research Grant to EKM and was supported by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources grant: Desiccation, Freezing, and Dispersal of Nitellopsis obtusa (AIRD10716) to KGK.
Funding
This research was funded by the Michigan Chapter of the North American Lake Management Society, the Michigan Space Grant Consortium (NNX15AJ20H) to EKM, and the Grand Valley State University Presidential Research Grant to EKM and was supported by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources grant: Desiccation, Freezing, and Dispersal of Nitellopsis obtusa (AIRD10716) to KGK.
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Conceptualization: EKM, SAW, KGK, SEH; Methodology: EKM, SAW, KGK, SEH; Formal analysis and investigation: EKM, SAW; Writing—original draft preparation: EKM; Writing—review and editing: EKM, SAW, KGK, SEH; Funding acquisition: EKM; Resources: EKM, SAW, KGK, SEH; Supervision: SAW, KGK, SEH.
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Moore, E.K., Woznicki, S.A., Karol, K.G. et al. Modeling of suitable habitats for starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) in inland lakes in the Midwest and northeast U.S.A. Biol Invasions 25, 3307–3322 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-023-03111-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-023-03111-6