Abstract
Climate change and biological invasions are two of the most cited factors that may affect species diversity in the coming decades. Here we used five climate scenarios to investigate the potential distribution of two invasive tree species, Acacia mangium and A. auriculiformis, in the Atlantic Forest hotspot. Additionally, we used expansion–contraction maps and maps of potential areas for forest restoration to investigate whether biological invasion could affect restoration efforts. We found A. mangium has a large suitable area in all scenarios (average 268,010.1 km2 ± 25,292.4 SD), while A auriculiformis is confined to a relatively small region (average 13,123.1 km2 ± 361.7 SD). In the low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 2.6), the suitable area for A. mangium varied from the current scenario of 24.8% of the Atlantic Forest to 26.2% and 25.4% in the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. In the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5), the suitable area contracted to 23.1% and 20.5% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. Approximately 30.8% of the potential area for restoration currently overlaps the suitable area for A. mangium, and this overlap reaches at least 23.8% of the potential areas for restoration in the future scenarios (RCP 8.5 in 2070). A. mangium has a large suitable area in the Atlantic Forest and can become a barrier to restoration efforts in the coming decades. Expansion–contraction maps should be used to establish environmental policies that promote both forest restoration and prevention of biological invasion in suitable areas.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) and the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme FP7-PEOPLE-2010-IRSES (“INSPECTED.NET” Project—Proposal No. 269206) for the fellowships granted to GH during his Ph.D.; CAPES and the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) for the postdoctoral fellowship to GH; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) for the productivity fellowship to JAAMN (No. 307591/2016-6); Sílvia R. Ziller (Instituto Hórus) for facilitating access to the I3N Brazil—Database of Invasive Alien Species in Brazil, Edson Santiam and Ludmila Pugliese (Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact) for making available the data on potential restoration areas of Atlantic Forest; Leandro Biondo (Serviço Florestal) and Pedro Heyerdahl (IDAF—ES) for the discussions about SiCAR; and Lívia C. de Siqueira, Hugo G. Cândido, Nathália V.H. Safar, Eric K.O. Hattori, Leonardo R.M. Palmeira, Alex J.P. Coelho, Gabriel R. Silva and Rafael D. Marques for the assistance provided during field work; Luiz F.S. Magnago for the helpful discussions during the development of this study; and two anonymous reviewers for the helpful contributions.
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Heringer, G., Bueno, M.L., Meira-Neto, J.A.A. et al. Can Acacia mangium and Acacia auriculiformis hinder restoration efforts in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest under current and future climate conditions?. Biol Invasions 21, 2949–2962 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-019-02024-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-019-02024-7