Abstract
Climate change and biological invasions are two of the most cited factors that may affect species diversity in the coming decades. Here we used five climate scenarios to investigate the potential distribution of two invasive tree species, Acacia mangium and A. auriculiformis, in the Atlantic Forest hotspot. Additionally, we used expansion–contraction maps and maps of potential areas for forest restoration to investigate whether biological invasion could affect restoration efforts. We found A. mangium has a large suitable area in all scenarios (average 268,010.1 km2 ± 25,292.4 SD), while A auriculiformis is confined to a relatively small region (average 13,123.1 km2 ± 361.7 SD). In the low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 2.6), the suitable area for A. mangium varied from the current scenario of 24.8% of the Atlantic Forest to 26.2% and 25.4% in the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. In the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5), the suitable area contracted to 23.1% and 20.5% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. Approximately 30.8% of the potential area for restoration currently overlaps the suitable area for A. mangium, and this overlap reaches at least 23.8% of the potential areas for restoration in the future scenarios (RCP 8.5 in 2070). A. mangium has a large suitable area in the Atlantic Forest and can become a barrier to restoration efforts in the coming decades. Expansion–contraction maps should be used to establish environmental policies that promote both forest restoration and prevention of biological invasion in suitable areas.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
AFRP—Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact (2017) http://www.pactomataatlantica.org.br/. Accessed 30 June 2018
Aguiar A Jr, Barbosa RI, Barbosa JBF, Mourão M (2014) Invasion of Acacia mangium in Amazonian savannas following planting for forestry. Plant Ecol Divers 7:359–369. https://doi.org/10.1080/17550874.2013.771714
ALA—Atlas of Living Australia (2017) http://www.ala.org.au. Accessed 20 Nov 2017
Allen JM, Bradley BA (2016) Out of the weeds? Reduced plant invasion risk with climate change in the continental United States. Biol Conserv 203:306–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.09.015
Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). J Appl Ecol 43:1223–1232. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x
Alvares CA, Stape JL, Sentelhas PC et al (2014) Köppen’s climate classification map for Brazil. Meteorol Z 22:711–728. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0507
Booth TH, McMurtrie RE (1988) Climatic change and Pinus radiata plantations in Australia. Greenhouse: planning for climate change. In: Pearman GI (ed) Greenhouse: planning for climate change. CSIRO, Melbourne, pp 534–545
Booth TH, Nix HA, Busby JR, Hutchinson MF (2014) BIOCLIM: the first species distribution modelling package, its early applications and relevance to most current MaxEnt studies. Divers Distrib. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12144
Bradley BA, Oppenheimer M, Wilcove DS (2009) Climate change and plant invasions: restoration opportunities ahead? Glob Chang Biol 15:1511–1521. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01824.x
Bradley BA, Wilcove DS, Oppenheimer M (2010) Climate change increases risk of plant invasion in the Eastern United States. Biol Invasions 12:1855–1872. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-009-9597-y
Brancalion PHS, Chazdon RL (2017) Beyond hectares: four principles to guide reforestation in the context of tropical forest and landscape restoration. Restor Ecol 25:491–496. https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.12519
Brancalion PHS, Pinto SR, Pugliese L et al (2016) Governance innovations from a multi-stakeholder coalition to implement large-scale Forest Restoration in Brazil. World Dev Perspect 3:15–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2016.11.003
Broennimann O, Treier UA, Müller-Schärer H et al (2007) Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion. Ecol Lett 10:701–709. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01060.x
Bueno ML, Pennington RT, Dexter KG et al (2016) Effects of Quaternary climatic fluctuations on the distribution of Neotropical savanna tree species. Ecography 40:403–414. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01860
Cupertino-Eisenlohr MA, Vinícius-Silva R, Meireles LD et al (2017) Stability or breakdown under climate change? A key group of woody bamboos will find suitable areas in its richness center. Biodivers Conserv 26:1845–1861. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-017-1332-x
de Almeida Campos Cordeiro A, Neri AV (2019) Spatial patterns along an elevation gradient in high altitude grasslands, Brazil. Nord J Bot. https://doi.org/10.1111/njb.02065
Delnatte C, Meyer J-Y (2012) Plant introduction, naturalization, and invasion in French Guiana (South America). Biol Invasions 14:915–927. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-011-0129-1
Donaldson JE, Hui C, Richardson DM et al (2014) Invasion trajectory of alien trees: the role of introduction pathway and planting history. Glob Chang Biol 20:1527–1537. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12486
Eisenlohr PV, Oliveira-Filho AT, Prado J (2015) The Brazilian Atlantic Forest: new findings, challenges and prospects in a shrinking hotspot. Biodivers Conserv 24:2129–2133. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-015-0995-4
Elith J (2002) Quantitative methods for modeling species habitat: Comparative 31 performance and an application to Australian plants. In: Ferson S, Burgman M (eds) Quantitative methods for conservation biology. Springer, New York, pp 39–58
Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP et al (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129–151. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x
ESRI (2012) ArcGIS desktop: release 10.1. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands
Ferro VG, Lemes P, Melo AS, Loyola R (2014) The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens Atlantic Forest tiger moths. PLoS ONE 9:e107792. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107792
Fridley JD, Stachowicz JJ, Naeem S et al (2007) The invasion paradox: reconciling pattern and process in species invasions. Ecology 88:3–17. https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2007)88%5b3:Tiprpa%5d2.0.Co;2
Gaertner M, Biggs R, Te Beest M et al (2014) Invasive plants as drivers of regime shifts: identifying high-priority invaders that alter feedback relationships. Divers Distrib 20:733–744. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12182
GBIF—Global Biodiversity Biodiversity Facility (2017) https://www.gbif.org/. Accessed 20 Nov 2017
Griffin AR, Midgley SJ, Bush D et al (2011) Global uses of Australian acacias—recent trends and future prospects. Divers Distrib 17:837–847. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00814.x
Hellmann C, Sutter R, Rascher KG et al (2011) Impact of an exotic N2-fixing Acacia on composition and N status of a native Mediterranean community. Acta Oecol 37:43–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao.2010.11.005
Heringer G, Thiele J, Meira-Neto JAA, Neri AV (2019) Biological invasion threatens the sandy-savanna Mussununga ecosystem in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Biol Invasions 21:2045–2057. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-019-01955-5
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965–1978. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1276
Hulme PE (2009) Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization. J Appl Ecol 46:10–18. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01600.x
Hutchinson MF (1995) Interpolating mean rainfall using thin plate smoothing splines. Int J Geogr Inf Syst 9:385–403. https://doi.org/10.1080/02693799508902045
I3N Brazil—National Database of Invasive Alien Species (2017) Instituto Hórus de Desenvolvimento e Conservacão Ambiental, Florianópolis, Brazil. http://i3n.institutohorus.org.br/www. Accessed 30 June 2017
IBGE—Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (2004) Mapa da Vegetacão do Brasil. Rio de Janeiro. ftp://ftp.ibge.gov.br/Cartas_e_Mapas/Mapas_Murais/. Accessed 29 June 2017
Jiménez-Valverde A (2012) Insights into the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a discrimination measure in species. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 5:498–507. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00683.x
Jones CC, Acker SA, Halpern CB (2010) Combining local-and large-scale models to predict the distributions of invasive plant species. Ecol Appl 20:311–326. https://doi.org/10.1890/08-2261.1
Kamino LHY, Stehmann JR, Amaral S et al (2012) Challenges and perspectives for species distribution modelling in the neotropics. Biol Lett 8:324–326. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2011.0942
Kennedy TA, Naeem S, Howe KM et al (2002) Biodiversity as a barrier to ecological invasion. Nature 417:636–638. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature00776
Koutika L-S, Richardson DM (2019) Acacia mangium Willd: benefits and threats associated with its increasing use around the world. For Ecosyst. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-019-0159-1
Laurance W (2009) Conserving the hottest of the hotspots. Biol Conserv 142:1137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.011
Le Maitre DC, Gaertner M, Marchante E et al (2011) Impacts of invasive Australian acacias: implications for management and restoration. Divers Distrib 17:1015–1029. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00816.x
Lehmann JR, Prinz T, Ziller SR et al (2017) Open-source processing and analysis of aerial imagery acquired with a low-cost unmanned aerial system to support invasive plant management. Front Environ Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2017.00044
Lemes P, Melo AS, Loyola RD (2014) Climate change threatens protected areas of the Atlantic Forest. Biodivers Conserv 23:357–368. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-013-0605-2
Magnago LFS, Edwards DP, Edwards FA et al (2014) Functional attributes change but functional richness is unchanged after fragmentation of Brazilian Atlantic forests. J Ecol 102:475–485. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12206
Magnago LFS, Magrach A, Laurance WF et al (2015) Would protecting tropical forest fragments provide carbon and biodiversity co-benefits under redd +? Glob Change Biol 21:3455–3468. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12937
Marchante H, Freitas H, Hoffmann JH (2011) Assessing the suitability and safety of a well-known bud-galling wasp, Trichilogaster acaciaelongifoliae, for biological control of Acacia longifolia in Portugal. Biol Control 56:193–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocontrol.2010.11.001
Martinez-Ramos M, Pingarroni A, Rodríguez-Velázquez J et al (2016) Natural forest regeneration and ecological restoration in human-modified tropical landscapes. Biotropica 48:745–757. https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12382
Matos FAR, Magnago LFS, Gastauer M et al (2016) Effects of landscape configuration and composition on phylogenetic diversity of trees in a highly fragmented tropical forest. J Ecol 105:265–276. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12661
Meira-Neto JAA, da Silva MCNA, Tolentino GS et al (2017) Early Acacia invasion in a sandy ecosystem enables shading mediated by soil, leaf nitrogen and facilitation. Biol Invasions. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-017-1647-2
Melo FPL, Pinto SRR, Brancalion PHS et al (2013) Priority setting for scaling-up tropical forest restoration projects: early lessons from the Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact. Environ Sci Policy 33:395–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.07.013
Meyerson LA, Mooney HA (2007) Invasive alien species in an era of globalization. Front Ecol Environ 5:199–208. https://doi.org/10.1890/1540-9295(2007)5%5b199:IASIAE%5d2.0.CO;2
MMA—Ministério do Meio Ambiente (2012) Monitoramento do desmatamento nos biomas brasileiros por satélite. Brasília, DF, Brazil. http://www.mma.gov.br/estruturas/sbf_chm_rbbio/_arquivos/relatorio_tcnico_mata_atlantica_2008_2009_72.pdf. Accessed 05 May 2018
Myers N, Mittemeier RA, Mittemeier CG et al (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403:853–858. https://doi.org/10.1038/35002501
National Research Council (1983) Mangium and other fast-growing Acacias for the humid tropics. National Academy Press, Washington
Oliveira U, Paglia AP, Brescovit AD et al (2016) The strong influence of collection bias on biodiversity knowledge shortfalls of Brazilian terrestrial biodiversity. Divers Distrib 22:1232–1244. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12489
Oliveira U, Soares BS, Paglia AP et al (2017) Biodiversity conservation gaps in the Brazilian protected areas. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-08707-2
Pena JCDC, Kamino LHY, Rodrigues M et al (2014) Assessing the conservation status of species with limited available data and disjunct distribution. Biol Conserv 170:130–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2013.12.015
Pereira HM, Leadley PW, Proença V et al (2010) Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science 330:1496–1501. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1196624
Peterson AT, Soberón J, Pearson RG et al (2011) Ecological niches and geographic distributions. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Phillips S, Anderson R, Schapire R (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190:231–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026
Rascher KG, Große-Stoltenberg A, Máguas C et al (2011) Acacia longifolia invasion impacts vegetation structure and regeneration dynamics in open dunes and pine forests. Biol Invasions 13:1099–1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-011-9949-2
Rezende CL, Scarano FR, Assad ED et al (2018) From hotspot to hopespot: an opportunity for the Brazilian Atlantic. Perspect Ecol Conserv. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2018.10.002
Ribeiro MC, Metzger JP, Martensen AC et al (2009) The Brazilian Atlantic Forest: how much is left, and how is the remaining forest distributed? Implications for conservation. Biol Conserv 142:1141–1153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.02.021
Ribeiro MC, Martensen AC, Metzger JP et al (2011) The Brazilian Atlantic Forest: a shrinking biodiversity hotspot. In: Zachos FE, Habel JC (eds) Biodiversity hotspots: distribution and protection of conservation priority areas. Springer, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-20992-5_21
Richardson DM, Rejmánek M (2011) Trees and shrubs as invasive alien species—a global review. Divers Distrib 17:788–809. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00782.x
Richardson DM, Thuiller W (2007) Home away from home—objective mapping of high-risk source areas for plant introductions. Divers Distrib 13:299–312. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00337.x
Richardson DM, Pysek P, Rejmánek M et al (2000) Naturalization and invasion of alien plants: concepts and definitions. Divers Distrib 6:93–107. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1472-4642.2000.00083.x
Rodrigues RR, Gandolfi S, Nave AG et al (2011) Large-scale ecological restoration of high-diversity tropical forests in SE Brazil. For Ecol Manag 261:1605–1613. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.07.005
Sala OE, Chapin FSS III, Armesto JJ et al (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 87:1770–1774. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
Scarano FR, Ceotto P (2015) Brazilian Atlantic forest: impact, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change. Biodivers Conserv 24:2319–2331. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-015-0972-y
Species Link (2017) http://www.splink.cria.org.br/. Accessed 20 Nov 2017
Urban MC (2015) Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science 348:571–573. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4984
van Kleunen M, Dawson W, Essl F et al (2015) Global exchange and accumulation of non-native plants. Nature 525:100–103. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14910
Wisz MS, Hijmans RJ, Li J et al (2008) Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Divers Distrib 14:763–773. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00482.x
Acknowledgements
We thank the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) and the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme FP7-PEOPLE-2010-IRSES (“INSPECTED.NET” Project—Proposal No. 269206) for the fellowships granted to GH during his Ph.D.; CAPES and the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) for the postdoctoral fellowship to GH; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) for the productivity fellowship to JAAMN (No. 307591/2016-6); Sílvia R. Ziller (Instituto Hórus) for facilitating access to the I3N Brazil—Database of Invasive Alien Species in Brazil, Edson Santiam and Ludmila Pugliese (Atlantic Forest Restoration Pact) for making available the data on potential restoration areas of Atlantic Forest; Leandro Biondo (Serviço Florestal) and Pedro Heyerdahl (IDAF—ES) for the discussions about SiCAR; and Lívia C. de Siqueira, Hugo G. Cândido, Nathália V.H. Safar, Eric K.O. Hattori, Leonardo R.M. Palmeira, Alex J.P. Coelho, Gabriel R. Silva and Rafael D. Marques for the assistance provided during field work; Luiz F.S. Magnago for the helpful discussions during the development of this study; and two anonymous reviewers for the helpful contributions.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Heringer, G., Bueno, M.L., Meira-Neto, J.A.A. et al. Can Acacia mangium and Acacia auriculiformis hinder restoration efforts in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest under current and future climate conditions?. Biol Invasions 21, 2949–2962 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-019-02024-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-019-02024-7