Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Managing an invasive predator pre-adapted to a pulsed resource: a model of stoat (Mustela erminea) irruptions in New Zealand beech forests

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Biological Invasions Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The stoat (Mustela erminea) is a specialist predator that evolved to exploit the unstable populations of northern voles and lemmings. It was introduced to New Zealand, where it is pre-adapted to respond with a population irruption to the resource pulses that follow a heavy seedfall of southern beech (Nothofagus spp.). Culling stoats during an irruption is necessary to reduce damaging predation on nesting endemic birds. Culling might not reduce the stoat population long term, however, if high natural mortality exceeds culling mortality in peak years. During other phases of the beech-mast cycle, culling might have a greater effect on a smaller stoat population, whether or not damage prevention is critical. We developed a 4-matrix model to predict the effects of culling on λ, the annual rate of change in the size of the stoat population, through the four annual phases of an average masting cycle, explicitly distinguishing between apparent and real culling. In the Post-seedfall phase of the cycle, large numbers of stoats are killed, but little of this extra mortality is additive; in other phases, culling removes larger proportions of smaller total numbers of stoats that would otherwise have lived. Culling throughout all phases is most effective at reducing stoat populations, but is also the most expensive option. Culling in Post-seedfall plus Seed or Crash years is somewhat less effective but better than culling in one phase only. Culling has different short-term effects on stoat age distribution depending on the phase of the cycle when culling begins.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alley JC, Berben PH, Dugdale JS, Fitzgerald BM, Knightbridge PI, Meads MJ, Webster RA (2001) Responses of litter-dwelling arthropods and house mice to beech seeding in the Orongorongo Valley, New Zealand. J Roy Soc NZ 31(2):425–452

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barlow ND, Barron MC (2005) Modelling the dynamics and control of stoats in New Zealand forests. Sci Conserv 252:1–40

    Google Scholar 

  • Barlow ND, Choquenot D (2002) Predicting the impact and control of stoats: a review of modelling approaches. Sci Conserv 191:1–46

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartolucci F, Pennoni F (2007) A class of latent Markov models for capture-recapture data allowing for time, heterogeneity, and behavior effects. Biometrics 63(2):568–578

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Basse B, McLennan JA, Wake GC (1999) Analysis of the impact of stoats, Mustela erminea, on northern brown kiwi, Apteryx mantelli, in New Zealand. Wildl Res 26:227–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellingham PJ, Towns DR, Cameron EK, Davis JJ, Wardle DA, Wilmshurst JM, Mulder CPH (2010) New Zealand island restoration: seabirds, predators, and the importance of history. N Z J Ecol 34(1):115–136

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown KP (1997) Predation at nests of two New Zealand endemic passerines: implications for bird community restoration. Pac Conserv Biol 3:91–98

    Google Scholar 

  • Choquenot D (2006) Bioeconomic modelling in conservation pest management: effect of stoat control on extinction risk of an indigenous New Zealand passerine, Mohua ochrocephala. Conserv Biol 20(2):480–489

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Christie JE, Kemp J, Rickard C, Murphy EC (2006) Measuring stoat (Mustela erminea) and ship rat (Rattus rattus) capture success against micro-habitat factors. N Z J Ecol 30(1):43–51

    Google Scholar 

  • Christie JE, Brown DJ, Westbrooke I, Murphy EC (2009) Environmental predictors of stoat (Mustela erminea) and ship rat (Rattus rattus) capture success. In: Research and development series, vol 305. Department of Conservation, Wellington, pp 1–27

    Google Scholar 

  • Crouchley D (1994) Stoat control on Maud Island 1982–1993. Ecol Manag 2(2):39–45

    Google Scholar 

  • Dilks P (1999) Recovery of a mohua (Mohoua ochrocephala) population following predator control in the Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, New Zealand. Notornis 46(3):323–332

    Google Scholar 

  • Dilks P, Willans M, Pryde M, Fraser I (2003) Large scale stoat control to protect mohua (Mohoua ochrocephala) and kaka (Nestor meridionalis) in the Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, New Zealand. N Z J Ecol 27(1):1–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Elliott GP (1996a) Mohua and stoats: a population viability analysis. N Z J Zool 23(3):239–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elliott GP (1996b) Productivity and mortality of mohua (Mohoua ochrocephala). N Z J Zool 23(3):229–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elliott GP, Williams M, Edmonds H, Crouchley D (2010) Stoat invasion, eradication and re-invasion of islands in Fiordland. N Z J Zool 37:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Etheridge N, Powlesland RG (2001) High productivity and nesting success of South Island robins (Petroica australis australis) following predator control at St Arnaud, Nelson Lakes, South Island. Notornis 48:179–180

    Google Scholar 

  • Gaze P (2003) The rise and fall of mohua (Mohoua ochrocephala) on Mt Stokes. Notornis 50:176–177

    Google Scholar 

  • Hobbs RJ, Arico S, Aronson J, Baron JS, Bridgewater P, Cramer VA, Epstein PR, Ewel JJ, Klink CA, Lugo AE, Norton D, Ojima D, Richardson DM, Sanderson EW, Valladares F, Vilà M, Zamora R, Zobel M (2006) Novel ecosystems: theoretical and management aspects of the new ecological world order. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 15:1–7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Innes JG (2005) Ship rat. In: King CM (ed) The handbook of New Zealand Mammals, 2nd edn. Oxford University Press, Melbourne, pp 187–203

    Google Scholar 

  • Innes J, Brown K, Jansen P, Shorten R, Williams D (1996) Kokako population studies at Rotoehu Forest and on Little Barrier Island. Sci Conserv 30:1–39

    Google Scholar 

  • Innes J, Nugent G, Prime K, Spurr E (2004) Responses of kukupa and other birds to mammal pest control at Motatau, Northland. N Z J Ecol 28:73–81

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelly D, Brindle C, Ladley JJ, Robertson AW, Maddigan FW, Butler J, Ward-Smith T, Murphy DJ, Sessions L (2005) Can stoat (Mustela erminea) trapping increase bellbird (Anthornis melanura) populations and benefit mistletoe (Peraxilla tetrapetala) pollination? N Z J Ecol 29:69–82

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelly D, Koenig WD, Liebhold A (2008) An intercontinental comparison of the dynamic behavior of mast seeding communities. Popul Ecol 50:329–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King CM (1980) Field experiments on the trapping of stoats (Mustela erminea). N Z J Zool 7:261–266

    Google Scholar 

  • King CM (1981a) The reproductive tactics of the stoat (Mustela erminea) in New Zealand forests. In: Chapman JA, Pursley D (eds) Proceedings of the first worldwide furbearer conference, vol I. Worldwide Furbearer Conference Inc., Frostburg, pp 443–468

    Google Scholar 

  • King CM (1981b) Studies on the control of stoats (Mustela erminea) in the national parks of New Zealand. In: Chapman JA, Pursley D (eds) First worldwide furbearer conference. Worldwide Furbearer Conference Inc., Frostburg, pp 1862–1874

    Google Scholar 

  • King CM (1982) Age structure and reproduction in feral New Zealand populations of the house mouse (Mus musculus), in relation to seedfall of southern beech. N Z J Zool 9:467–479 with correction in next issue

    Google Scholar 

  • King CM (1983) The relationships between beech (Nothofagus sp.) seedfall and populations of mice (Mus musculus), and the demographic and dietary responses of stoats (Mustela erminea), in three New Zealand forests. J Anim Ecol 52:141–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King CM, McMillan CD (1982) Population structure and dispersal of peak-year cohorts of stoats (Mustela erminea) in two New Zealand forests, with especial reference to control. N Z J Ecol 5:59–66

    Google Scholar 

  • King CM, Moller H (1997) Distribution and response of rats Rattus rattus, R. exulans to seedfall in New Zealand beech forests. Pac Conserv Biol 3(2):143–155

    Google Scholar 

  • King CM, Moody JE (1982) The biology of the stoat (Mustela erminea) in the national parks of New Zealand. N Z J Zool 9:49–144

    Google Scholar 

  • King CM, Powell RA (2007) The natural history of weasels and stoats: ecology, behavior and management, 2nd edn. Oxford University Press, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • King CM, Flux M, Innes JG, Fitzgerald BM (1996a) Population biology of small mammals in Pureora forest park: 1. Carnivores (Mustela erminea, M.furo, M nivalis and Felis catus). N Z J Ecol 20(2):241–251

    Google Scholar 

  • King CM, Innes JG, Flux M, Kimberley MO, Leathwick JR, Williams DS (1996b) Distribution and abundance of mammals in relation to habitat in Pureora Forest Park. N Z J Ecol 20(2):215–240

    Google Scholar 

  • King CM, Davis SA, Purdey DC, Lawrence B (2003a) Capture probability and heterogeneity of trap response in stoats, Mustela erminea. Wildl Res 30:611–619

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King CM, White PCL, Purdey DC, Lawrence B (2003b) Matching productivity to resource availability in a small predator, the stoat (Mustela erminea). Can J Zool 81(4):662–669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King CM, McDonald RM, Martin RD, Dennis T (2009) Why is eradication of invasive mustelids so difficult? Biol Conserv 142:806–816

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McDonald RA, Harris S (2002) Population biology of stoats Mustela erminea and weasels Mustela nivalis on game estates in Great Britain. J Appl Ecol 39:793–805

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McLennan JA (2006) Strategies to reduce predation on bird populations. In: Allen RB, Lee WG (eds) Biological invasions in New Zealand. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp 371–387

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • McLennan JA, Potter MA, Robertson HA, Wake GC, Colbourne R, Dew L, Joyce L, McCann AJ, Miles J, Miller PJ, Reid J (1996) Role of predation in the decline of kiwi, Apteryx spp., in New Zealand. N Z J Ecol 20(1):27–35

    Google Scholar 

  • McMurtrie P, Edge KA, Crouchley D, Gleeson D, Willans MJ, Veale AJ (in press) Eradication of Stoats (Mustela erminea) from Secretary Island, New Zealand. In: Veitch D, Clout MN, Towns DR (eds) Island invasives: eradication and management. International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland

  • Moorhouse R, Greene T, Dilks P, Powlesland R, Moran L, Taylor G, Jones A, Knegtmans J, Wills D, Pryde M, Fraser I, August A, August C (2003) Control of introduced mammalian predators improves kaka Nestor meridionalis breeding success: reversing the decline of a threatened New Zealand parrot. Biol Conserv 110(1):33–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murphy EC, Dowding JE (1995) Ecology of the stoat in Nothofagus forest: home range, habitat use and diet at different stages of the beech mast cycle. N Z J Ecol 19(2):97–109

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Donnell CFJ (1996) Predators and the decline of New Zealand forest birds: an introduction to the hole-nesting bird and predator programme. N Z J Zool 23(3):213–219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Donnell CFJ, Phillipson SM (1996) Predicting the incidence of mohua predation from the seedfall, mouse, and predator fluctuations in beech forests. N Z J Zool 23(3):287–293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Donnell CFJ, Dilks PJ, Elliott GP (1996) Control of a stoat (Mustela erminea) population irruption to enhance mohua (yellowhead)(Mohoua ochrocephala) breeding success in New Zealand. N Z J Zool 23(3):279–286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ostfeld RS, Keesing F (2000) Pulsed resources and community dynamics of consumers in terrestrial ecosystems. Trends Ecol Evol 15(6):232–237

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Parkes J, Murphy EC (2003) Management of introduced mammals in New Zealand. N Z J Zool 30(4):335–359

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Powell RA, King CM (1997) Variation in body size, sexual dimorphism and age-specific survival in stoats, Mustela erminea (Mammalia: Carnivora), with fluctuating food supplies. Biol J Linn Soc 62(2):165–194

    Google Scholar 

  • Pryde MA, O’Donnell CFJ, Barker RJ (2005) Factors influencing survival and long-term population viability of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus): implications for conservation. Biol Conserv 126:175–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richardson SJ, Allen RB, Whitehead D, Carswell FE, Ruscoe WA, Platt KH (2005) Climate and net carbon availablility determine temporal patterns of seed production by Nothofagus. Ecology 86(4):972–981

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruscoe WA, Norbury G, Choquenot D (2006) Trophic interactions among native and introduced animal species. In: Allen RB, Lee WG (eds) Biological Invasions in New Zealand. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp 247–263

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt KA, Ostfeld RS (2008) Numerical and behavioral effects within a pulse-driven system: Consequences for shared prey. Ecology 89:635–646

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Sidorovich V, Solovej IA (2007) The stoat Mustela erminea population decline in northern Belarus and its consequences for weasels Mustela nivalis. N Z J Zool 34(1):9–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith DHV, Jamieson IG (2005) Lack of movement of stoats (Mustela erminea) between Nothofagus valley floors and alpine grasslands, with implications for the conservation of New Zealand’s endangered fauna. N Z J Ecol 29:29–35

    Google Scholar 

  • Sweetapple PJ, Nugent G (2007) Ship rat demography and diet following possum control in a mixed podocarp–hardwood forest. N Z J Ecol 31:186–201

    Google Scholar 

  • Tapper SC, Green RE, Rands MRW (1982) Effects of mammalian predators on partridge populations. Mammal Rev 12:159–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tompkins DM, Veltman CJ (2006) Unexpected consequences of vertebrate pest control: predictions from a four-species community model. Ecol Appl 16(3):1050–1061

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Watkins AF, McWhirter JL, King CM (2010) Variable detectability in long-term population surveys of small mammals. Eur J Wildl Manag 56(3):261–274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • White PCL, King CM (2006) Predation on native birds in New Zealand beech forests: the role of functional relationships between stoats and rodents. Ibis 148:765–771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whitehead AL, Edge KA, Smart AF, Hill GS, Willans MJ (2008) Large scale predator control improves the productivity of a rare New Zealand riverine duck. Biol Conserv 141:2784–2794

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson PR, Karl BJ, Toft RJ, Beggs JR, Taylor RH (1998) The role of introduced predators and competitors in the decline of kaka (Nestor meridionalis) populations in New Zealand. Biol Conserv 83(2):175–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wittmer H, Powell RA, King CM (2007) Understanding contributions of cohort effects to growth rates of fluctuating populations. J Anim Ecol 76:946–956

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Yang LH, Edwards KF, Byrnes JE, Bastow JL, Wright AN, Spence KO (2010) A meta-analysis of resource pulse-consumer interactions. Ecol Monogr 80:125–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Special thanks are due to the field staff who collected the stoats in the five study areas, and to J. E. Moody, H. Robertson, G. Asher, M. Flux, M. G. Efford, and J. G. Innes, who helped in their various ways to get the material analysed. Finance for field and most laboratory work was provided at various times by the former Department of Scientific and Industrial Reasearch, National Parks Authority and New Zealand Forest Service and the present Department of Conservation, administered by A. Thorpe, A. Cragg, and A. Leigh. Tooth sectioning of the Fiordland and Craigieburn specimens was done by H. Grue, funded by North Carolina Agricultural Research Service; tooth sectioning of the Pureora and Mount Cook specimens was done by Matson’s Laboratory, Milltown, Montana USA, funded by the University of Waikato; funding for the analyses and writing up was provided by the department of Zoology, North Carolina State University and the Department of Biological Sciences, University of Waikato. Study area estimates were calculated by R. Martin. Earlier and unrecognisably different versions of the MS benefitted from the constructive criticism of K. Pollock, B. M. Fitzgerald, B. Sittler, N.C. Stenseth, S. Boutin, C. Frampton, T. Dennis and the late G. Caughley. All field collections were made using the most humane traps available at the time, but pre-dated the introduction of formal Animal Ethics Committee regulations.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biological Sciences, Waikato University, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand

    Carolyn M. King

  2. Department of Biology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27695-7617, USA

    Roger A. Powell

Authors
  1. Carolyn M. King
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Roger A. Powell
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Carolyn M. King.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

King, C.M., Powell, R.A. Managing an invasive predator pre-adapted to a pulsed resource: a model of stoat (Mustela erminea) irruptions in New Zealand beech forests. Biol Invasions 13, 3039–3055 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-011-9993-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-011-9993-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation