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Critique and Lessons Learned from using Multiple Methods to Estimate Population Size of Men who have Sex with Men in Ghana

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Abstract

Population size estimation of key populations at risk of HIV is essential to every national response. We implemented population size estimation of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ghana using a three-stage approach within the 2011 Ghana Men’s Study: during the study’s formative assessment, the larger integrated bio-behavioral surveillance (IBBS) survey; and during the stakeholder meeting. We used six methods in combination within the three-stage approach (literature review, mapping with census, unique object multiplier, service multiplier, wisdom of the crowd, and modified Delphi) to generate size estimates from 16 locations (4 IBBS survey sites and 12 other locations) and used the estimates from the 16 sites to extrapolate the total MSM population size of Ghana. We estimated the number of MSM in Ghana to be 30,579 with a plausible range of 21,645–34,470. The overall estimate suggests that the prevalence of MSM in Ghana is 0.48 % of the adult male population. Lessons learned are shared to inform and improve applications of the methods in future studies.

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Acknowledgments

This research has been supported by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Ghana Country Office under the terms of Cooperative Agreement Number 5U2GPS001469-03. The authors would like to thank Dr. Fazle Khan, Dr. Celia Woodfill and all reviewers for helpful comments on the manuscript. The views expressed in this manuscript do not necessarily reflect the official views of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Global HIV/AIDS, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 24 Fourth Circular Rd., Cantonments, Accra, Ghana

    Silas Quaye

  2. Global Health Sciences, Prevention and Public Health Group, University of California, San Francisco, San Franciscos, CA, USA

    H. Fisher Raymond & Willi McFarland

  3. San Francisco Department of Public Health, San Francisco, CA, USA

    H. Fisher Raymond & Willi McFarland

  4. Ghana AIDS Commission, Accra, Ghana

    Kyeremeh Atuahene & Angela El-Adas

  5. UNAIDS-Technical Support Facility, West and Central Africa, West Africa

    Richard Amenyah

  6. Division of Global HIV/AIDS, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia

    John Aberle-Grasse

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  1. Silas Quaye
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  2. H. Fisher Raymond
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  5. John Aberle-Grasse
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  6. Willi McFarland
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  7. Angela El-Adas
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Ghana Men Study Group

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Correspondence to Silas Quaye.

Additional information

Ghana Men’s Study team are listed in the Appendix.

Appendix: Ghana Men’s Study team

Appendix: Ghana Men’s Study team

The Ghana Men’s Study team includes the following members: Prof. Francis Dodoo, Prof. John K. Anarfi, Prof. Alexander Nyarko, Prof. William Ampofo, Prof. Richard Adanu, Prof. Stephen Kwankye, NaaDoduaAdjokatse, Adriana Biney, Eric Harrison, Prince Parbie, Samuel Dery (University of Ghana), Dr. Kelly Taylor, Ellen Stein, Shaan Chaturvedi (University of California San Francisco), Clive Ashby, and Jewel Lamptey (Ghana AIDS Commission).

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Quaye, S., Fisher Raymond, H., Atuahene, K. et al. Critique and Lessons Learned from using Multiple Methods to Estimate Population Size of Men who have Sex with Men in Ghana. AIDS Behav 19 (Suppl 1), 16–23 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10461-014-0943-4

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