Abstract
Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic virus that can pose a serious threat to human and livestock health. Old-world fruit bats (Pteropus spp.) are the natural reservoir hosts for NiV, and Pteropus lylei, Lyle’s flying fox, is an important host of NiV in mainland Southeast Asia. NiV can be transmitted from bats to humans directly via bat-contaminated foods (i.e., date palm sap or fruit) or indirectly via livestock or other intermediate animal hosts. Here we construct risk maps for NiV spillover and transmission by combining ecological niche models for the P. lylei bat reservoir with other spatial data related to direct or indirect NiV transmission (livestock density, foodborne sources including fruit production, and human population). We predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) distribution of P. lylei across Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Our best-fit model predicted that central and western regions of Thailand and small areas in Cambodia are currently the most suitable habitats for P. lylei. However, due to climate change, the species range is predicted to expand to include lower northern, northeastern, eastern, and upper southern Thailand and almost all of Cambodia and lower southern Vietnam. This expansion will create additional risk areas for human infection from P. lylei in Thailand. Our combined predictive risk maps showed that central Thailand, inhabited by 2.3 million people, is considered highly suitable for the zoonotic transmission of NiV from P. lylei. These current and future NiV transmission risk maps can be used to prioritize sites for active virus surveillance and developing awareness and prevention programs to reduce the risk of NiV spillover and spread in Thailand.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by a Research Chair Grant (P-13-01091) “Zoonotic diseases: role of reservoirs and vectors, diagnosis, mechanism and therapeutic”, by the Cluster and Program Management Office (CPMO) (P-15-50535); the “Wildlife Habitat restoration for prey species of tiger in Dong Phayayen-Khao Yai Forest Complex” (P-18-51249) of the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA); the Centre for Advanced Studies in Tropical Natural Resources, National Research University, Kasetsart University, (CASTNAR, NRU-KU), Bangkok, Thailand; the EID-SEARCH project under the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health (U01AI151797); and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats PREDICT program.
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Chaiyes, A., Duengkae, P., Suksavate, W. et al. Mapping Risk of Nipah Virus Transmission from Bats to Humans in Thailand. EcoHealth 19, 175–189 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-022-01588-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-022-01588-6