Abstract
The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.
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Acknowledgments
The first author would like to acknowledge with thanks the postdoctoral fellowship for foreign researchers provided by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS). The research was partially carried out with the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. 50539110 and 40772170), and Ministry of Science and Technology of China (No. 2006BAC04B05). This work was also supported by Program for Talents in Huazhong University of Science and Technology.
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Wang, H., Wang, G., Wang, F. et al. Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations. Landslides 5, 387–395 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-008-0131-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-008-0131-6