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Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast

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Abstract

Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed.

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Acknowledgments

Funding for A. Pampell-Manis and J. Horrillo was provided by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) under awards NA12NWS4670014, Construction of Five Additional Tsunami Inundation Maps for the Gulf of Mexico and NA13NWS4670018, A Probabilistic Methodology for Hazard Assessment Generated by Submarine Landslide in the Gulf of Mexico. Funding for all authors was also provided by the NTHMP under award NA14NWS4670049, Implementing NTHMP-MMS Strategic Plan in Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Products for the Gulf of Mexico. The authors also wish to thank Chayne Sparagowski and Amy Godsey for their direction on hurricane storm surge comparisons, and Craig Harter for his assistance with processing of data for comparisons.

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Author notes

  1. Alyssa Pampell-Manis

    Present address: , HX5 LLC, Houston, TX, 77058, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Ocean Engineering, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX, 77553, USA

    Alyssa Pampell-Manis, Juan Horrillo & Jens Figlus

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  1. Alyssa Pampell-Manis
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  2. Juan Horrillo
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  3. Jens Figlus
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Correspondence to Alyssa Pampell-Manis.

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Responsible Editor: Diana Greenslade

This article is part of the Topical Collection on the 14th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting in Key West, Florida, USA, November 8–13, 2015

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Pampell-Manis, A., Horrillo, J. & Figlus, J. Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast. Ocean Dynamics 66, 1005–1024 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-016-0966-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-016-0966-7

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