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Economic effects of global warming under stock growth uncertainty: the European sardine fishery

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Abstract

Global warming of the oceans is expected to alter the environmental conditions that determine the growth of a fishery resource. Most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios that focus on economic growth, or they concentrate on simulating the potential losses or cost to fisheries due to climate change. However, analysis that addresses model optimisation problems to better understand the complex dynamics of climate change and marine ecosystems is still lacking. In this paper, a simple algorithm to compute transitional dynamics in order to quantify the effect of climate change on the European sardine fishery is presented. The model results indicate that global warming will not necessarily lead to a monotonic decrease in the expected biomass levels. Our results show that if the resource is exploited optimally, then in the short run, increases in the surface temperature of the fishery ground are compatible with higher expected biomass and economic profit.

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Acknowledgments

We thank M. Dolores Garza-Gil, Julia Torralba, and Manuel M. Varela-Lafuente for their valuable comments and suggestions. Financial aid from the European Commission (MYFISH, FP7-KBBE-2011-5, nº 289257), and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2009-14697-C02-02, ECO2012-39098-C06-00, ECO2012-39098-C06-01 and ECO2012-35820) are gratefully acknowledged. The first draft of the paper was written while Jose María Da Rocha was visiting Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica-CSIC, and the hospitality extended by its members is gratefully acknowledged. Sebastián Villasante acknowledges the financial support of the Latin American and Caribbean Environmental Economic Program (LACEEP) and the Norwegian Research Council. The author is also grateful to the Beijer International Institute of Ecological Economics (The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden) for awarding him the Karl-Göran Mäler Scholarship.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CIE. Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de Mexico (ITAM), Distrito Federal, Mexico

    José-María Da Rocha

  2. MacLab, FAEII and BETS, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015, Bilbao, Spain

    María-José Gutiérrez

  3. The Beijer International Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 50005, SE-104 05, Stockholm, Sweden

    Sebastian Villasante

  4. Centro Nacional Patagónico, CONICET, 9120 Puerto Madryn, Chubut, Argentina

    Sebastian Villasante

  5. Universidade de Vigo, Campus Lagoas Macrosende, 36200, Vigo, Spain

    José-María Da Rocha

  6. Campus do Mar, International Campus of Excellence, Vigo, Spain

    José-María Da Rocha & Sebastian Villasante

  7. Department of Applied Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Santiago de Compostela, Av. Burgo das Nacións s/n, 15782, Santiago de Compostela, Spain

    Sebastian Villasante

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  1. José-María Da Rocha
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  2. María-José Gutiérrez
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  3. Sebastian Villasante
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Correspondence to Sebastian Villasante.

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Da Rocha, JM., Gutiérrez, MJ. & Villasante, S. Economic effects of global warming under stock growth uncertainty: the European sardine fishery. Reg Environ Change 14, 195–205 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0466-y

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