Abstract
The concept of relative vulnerability allows for comparisons between analogous units in a regional context. It is utilised within tourism studies to consider how climate change might affect demand and perceived attractiveness of destinations relative to their competitors. This paper examines Australian tourists travelling to New Zealand’s ski fields, responding to the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) assertion that, “tourist flows from Australia to New Zealand might grow as a result of the relatively poorer snow conditions in Australia” (Hennessy et al. 2007: p 523). This travel flow is not a new phenomenon; however, it is forecast to increase as climate change impacts upon Australia’s natural and man-made snowmaking capacity with implications for the viability of the ski industries in both Australia and New Zealand. The Queenstown Lakes Region (South Island, New Zealand) serves as the field area for this study. The empirical research utilises a qualitative methodology for which in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with New Zealand ski industry representatives and Australian tourists during the southern hemisphere winter season of 2011. Findings suggest that the social context of vulnerability creates difficulty in forecasting the outcomes and behaviours associated with relative vulnerability. While tourism representatives’ focus on snow reliability and availability to conceptualise relative vulnerability, Australian tourists are influenced by a broader range of factors including their own travel experience. This paper demonstrates a clear need to move beyond a focus on snow reliability to consider the broad range of factors that contribute to regional variations in vulnerability. In doing so, it confirms the critical importance of situating relative vulnerability within a social context.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adger WN, Brown K (2009) Vulnerability and resilience to environmental change: ecological and social perspectives. In: Castree N, Demeritt D, Liverman D, Rhoads B (eds) A companion to environmental geography. Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Oxford, pp 109–122
Amelung B, Nicholls S, Viner D (2007) Implications of global climate change for tourism flows and seasonality. J Travel Res 45(3):285
Bicknell S, McManus P (2006) The canary in the coalmine: Australian ski resorts and their response to climate change. Geograph Res 44(4):386–400
Bigano A, Hamilton JM, Maddison DJ, Tol RSJ (2006) Predicting tourism flows under climate change. Clim Change 79(3):175–180
Dawson J, Scott D (2007) Climate change vulnerability of the Vermont ski tourism industry (USA). Ann Leis Res 10(3/4):550
Dickson TJ, Faulks P (2007) Exploring overseas snowsport participation by Australian skiers and snowboarders. Tour Rev 62(3/4):7–14
Ehmer P, Heymann E (2008) Klimawandel und Tourismus: Wohin geht die Reise?. Deutsche Bank Research, Frankfurt
Füssel H (2007) Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environ Change 17(2):155–167
Füssel H, Klein R (2006) Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Clim Change 75(3):301–329
Galloway R (1988) The potential impact of climate changes on Australian ski fields. In: Pearman GI (ed) Greenhouse: planning for climate change. CSIRO Publications, East Melbourne, pp 428–437
Gaskell G (2000) Individual and group interviewing. In: Bauer MW, Gaskell G (eds) Qualitative researching with text, image and sound. Sage Publications London, UK, pp 38–56
Glantz (1995) Assessing the impacts of climate: the issue of winners and losers in a global climate change context. In: Zwever S, van Rompaey RSAR, Kok MTJ, Berk MM (eds) International climate change research conference, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp 41–54
Gössling S, Hall CM (2006) Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change. Clim Change 79(3):163–173
Hamilton JM, Maddison DJ, Tol RSJ (2005) Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study. Global Environ Change Part A 15(3):253–266
Hein L, Metzger MJ, Moreno A (2009) Potential impacts of climate change on tourism; a case study for Spain. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 1(2):170–178
Hendrikx J, Hreinsson E (2010) The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow conditions in New Zealand. National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Christchurch
Hendrikx J, Hreinsson EÖ (2012) The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow in New Zealand: part II—industry vulnerability and future snowmaking potential. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0713-z
Hendrikx J, Clark M, Hreinsson EO, Tait A, Woods R, Slater A, Mullan B (2009) Simulations of seasonal snow in New Zealand: past and future. In: Proceedings of the 9th international conference on southern hemisphere meterology and oceanography, Melbourne, Australia, American Meterological Society, p 11
Hendrikx J, Hreinsson EÖ, Clark MP, Mullan AB (2012) The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow in New Zealand: part I—an analysis using 12 GCMs. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0711-1
Hendrikx J, Zammit C, Hreinsson EO, Becken S (2012) A comparative assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the ski industry in New Zealand and Australia (forthcoming)
Hennessy KJ, Whetton P, Smith I, Bathols J, Hutchinson M, Sharples J (2003) The impact of climate change on snow conditions in mainland Australia. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale
Hennessy K, Fitzharris B, Bates BC, Harvey N, Howden M, Hughes L, Salinger J, Warrick R (2007) Australia and New Zealand. Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge
Hennessy K, Whetton P, Walsh K, Smith I, Bathols J, Hutchinson M, Sharples J (2008) Climate change effects on snow conditions in mainland Australia and adaptation at ski resorts through snowmaking. Clim Res 35(3):255–270
Hurd B, Leary N, Jones R, Smith J (1999) Relative regional vulnerability of water resources to climate change. J Am Water Resour Assoc 35(6):1399–1409
König U (1998) Tourism in a warmer world: implications of climate change due to enhanced greenhouse effect for the ski industry in the Australian Alps. University of Zürich-Irchel, Zürich
Lazard A (2002) Is the winter world flat? Ski Area Manage 41(5):22–27
Maddison D (2001) In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flows of British tourists. Clim Change 49(1):193–208
Nicholls N (2005) Climate variability, climate change and the Australian snow season. Aust Meteorol Mag 54(3):177–185
O’Brien K, Leichenko R (2000) Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization. Global Environ Change Part A Human Policy Dimens 10(3):221–232
O’Brien KL, Leichenko RM (2003) Winners and losers in the context of global change. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 93(1):89–103
O’Brien K, Eriksen S, Nygaard L, Schjolden A (2007) Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses. Clim Policy 7(1):73–88
Peeters P, Dubois G (2010) Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints. J Transp Geogr 18(3):447–457
Pickering C (2011) Changes in demand for tourism with climate change: a case study of visitation patterns to six ski resorts in Australia. J Sustain Tour 19(6):767–781
Pickering MC, Buckley RC (2010) Climate response by the ski industry: the shortcomings of snowmaking for Australian resorts. Ambio 39(6):430–438
Pickering CM, Castley JG, Burtt M (2010) Skiing less often in a warmer world: attitudes of tourists to climate change in an Australian ski resort. Geograph Res 48(2):137–147
Roman CE, Lynch AH, Dominey-Howes D, Weeden C (2010) Uncovering the essence of the climate change adaptation problem-a case study of the tourism sector at Alpine Shire, Victoria, Australia. Tour Plann Dev 7(3):237–252
Scott D, McBoyle G, Minogue A, Mills B (2006) Climate change and the sustainability of ski-based tourism in eastern North America: a reassessment. J Sustain Tour 14(4):376–398
Scott D, Dawson J, Jones B (2008) Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation–tourism sector. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 13(5):577–596
Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environ Change 16(3):282–292
Unbehaun W, Pröbstl U, Haider W (2008) Trends in winter sport tourism: challenges for the future. Tour Rev 63(1):36–47
Vanat L (2012) 2012 International report on mountain tourism: overview of the key industry figures for ski resorts. Laurent Vanat Consultants
Whetton P, Haylock M, Galloway R (1996) Climate change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps. Clim Change 32(4):447–479
Williams SE, Shoo LP, Isaac JL, Hoffmann AA, Langham G (2008) Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change. PLoS Biol 6(12):325
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the University of Otago and the New Zealand Federation of Graduate Women's Harriette Jenkins award for supporting this research.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hopkins, D., Higham, J.E.S. & Becken, S. Climate change in a regional context: relative vulnerability in the Australasian skier market. Reg Environ Change 13, 449–458 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0352-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0352-z