Abstract
Affected by user demand and policy, the technological innovation speed and economic efficiency of different power technologies will change internally. By setting different policy scenarios, based on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model, the paper comprehensively compared the impact of different policy portfolios and policy input intensity on the economics and stage of power technologies, and the market competitiveness evolution of coal power and renewable energy power is mainly analyzed. After 2020, with the increase in coal fuel prices and the acceleration of nuclear power technology learning, the LCOE of coal power has shown an upward trend, while the LCOE of nuclear power has shown the declining year by year. With the positive effects of technological innovation and diffusion, the LCOE of solar photovoltaic power (PV), and centralized solar power (CSP) technologies has also shown a downward trend year by year. In Scenario 1, continuing the existing energy policies, the LCOE of wind power, solar PV and CSP was significantly lower than coal power in 2040. In Scenario 2, implementing low-level coal resource tax, environmental tax, carbon tax and PV price subsidy, the LCOE of wind power and solar PV power was lower than coal power in 2030, and the LCOE of CSP was lower than coal power in 2040. In Scenario 3, implementing more rigorous energy policies, with the obvious economic advantages, the alternative of new energy power sources such as wind power and solar PV power is stronger.
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Funding
This study was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (71673085), Program for the Innovative Talents of Higher Education Institutions of Shanxi (PTIT) and Program for the Philosophy and Social Sciences Research of Higher Learning Institutions of Shanxi (2020W061). The authors would also like to acknowledge great thanks to anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments which largely improve the academic quality of this paper. The usual caveats apply.
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Data collection and analysis were performed by ZY and JY. The first draft of the manuscript was written by YX and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Xu, Y., Yang, Z. & Yuan, J. The economics of renewable energy power in China. Clean Techn Environ Policy 23, 1341–1351 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-021-02031-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-021-02031-0