Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Predicting debris-flow clusters under extreme rainstorms: a case study on Hong Kong Island

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Debris flows can cause severe loss of human lives and damage to property, especially on densely populated hilly terrains. In the changing climate, the frequency of debris flows is on a rising trend. Therefore, it is important to forecast possible scenarios of debris flows under extreme weather conditions. Previous numerical studies often deal with one individual debris flow in one analysis. Yet a large number of debris flows can occur in a large storm. This paper presents a physically based model to predict likely debris flow clusters on Hong Kong Island with an area of approximately 80 km2 considering the influence of the changing climate. Firstly, a slope stability analysis is conducted, and unstable cells and landslide deposition areas are predicted. Then clusters of debris flows initiating from these landslides are simulated considering hillslope erosion. The models are validated with historical debris flows triggered by a rainstorm in 2008. Finally, debris flow clusters under three reference extreme rainstorms (i.e. 44%, 65% and 85% of the 24-h probable maximum precipitation, PMP) are predicted. With the increase of rainstorm magnitude, numerous debris flows can occur simultaneously and merge, posing much greater threat to society. The consequences of debris flows grow dramatically when the magnitude reaches a certain extent, i.e. 65% of the 24-h PMP.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • AECOM Asia Company Limited, Lin BZ (2014) 24-hour PMP updating study, Agreement No. CE 13/2011 (GE). Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering and Development Department, Hong Kong

  • Au SWC (1998) Rain-induced slope instability in Hong Kong. Eng Geol 51(1):1–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bout B, Lombardo L, van Westen CJ, Jetten VG (2018) Integration of two-phase solid fluid equations in a catchment model for flashfloods, debris flows and shallow slope failures. Environ Model Softw 105:1–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunsden D, Prior DB (1984) Slope instability. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang DS, Zhang LM, Xu Y, Huang RQ (2011) Field testing of erodibility of two landslide dams triggered by the 12 may Wenchuan earthquake. Landslides 8(3):321–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang WL, Hui TW (2001) Probable maximum precipitation for Hong Kong. ATC3 Workshop on rain-induced landslides, Hong Kong

  • Chen HX, Zhang LM, Chang DS, Zhang S (2012) Mechanisms and runout characteristics of the rainfall-triggered debris flow in Xiaojiagou in Sichuan Province, China. Nat Hazards 62(3):1037–1057

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen HX, Zhang LM (2014) A physically-based distributed cell model for predicting regional rainfall-induced shallow slope failures. Eng Geol 176:79–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen HX, Zhang LM (2015) EDDA 1.0: integrated simulation of debris flow erosion, deposition and property changes. Geosci Model Dev 8(3):829–844

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiang SH, Chang KT, Mondini AC, Tsai BW, Chen CY (2012) Simulation of event-based landslides and debris flows at watershed level. Geomorphology 138(1):306–318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collins BD, Znidarcic D (2004) Stability analyses of rainfall induced landslides. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 130(4):362–372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Corominas J (1996) The angle of reach as a mobility index for small and large landslides. Can Geotech J 33(2):260–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cui P, Zou Q, Xiang LZ, Zeng C (2013) Risk assessment of simultaneous debris flows in mountain townships. Prog Phys Geogr 37(4):516–542

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai FC, Lee CF, Wang SJ (1999) Analysis of rainstorm-induced slide-debris flows on natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Eng Geol 51(4):279–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drainage Service Department (2008) Flooding blackspots. Drainage Services Department, Hong Kong

    Google Scholar 

  • Fan RL, Zhang LM, Wang HJ, Fan XM (2018) Evolution of debris flow activities in Gaojiagou ravine during 2008–2016 after the Wenchuan earthquake. Eng Geol 235:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FLO-2D Software Inc (2009) FLO-2D Reference Manual Nutrioso, Arizona, U.S.A

  • Fredlund DG, Morgenstern NR, Widger RA (1978) The shear strength of unsaturated soils. Can Geotech J 15(3):313–321

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fredlund DG, Rahardjo H (1993) Soil mechanics for unsaturated soils. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Fyfe JA, Shaw R, Compbess SDG, Lai KW, Kirk PA (2000) The quaternary geology of Hong Kong. Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering and Development Department, Hong Kong

    Google Scholar 

  • Gao L, Zhang LM, Chen HX (2015) Likely scenarios of natural terrain shallow slope failures on Hong Kong Island under extreme storms. Nat Hazards Rev 18(1):B4015001

    Google Scholar 

  • Gao L, Zhang LM, Chen HX, Shen P (2016) Simulating debris flow mobility in urban settings. Eng Geol 214:67–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gardner WR (1958) Some steady-state solutions of the unsaturated moisture flow equation with application to evaporation from a water table. Soil Sci 85(4):228–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geotechnical Control Office (1982) Mid-levels study: report on geology, hydrology and soil properties. Geotechnical Control Office, Hong Kong

    Google Scholar 

  • Han XD, Chen JP, Xu PH, Niu CC, Zhan JW (2018) Runout analysis of a potential debris flow in the Dongwopu gully based on a well-balanced numerical model over complex topography. Bull Eng Geol Environ 77(2):679–689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han Z, Li Y, Huang JL, Chen GQ, Xu LR, Tang C, Zhang H, Shang YH (2017) Numerical simulation for run-out extent of debris flow using an improved cellular automaton model. Bull Eng Geol Environ 76(3):961–974

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanson GJ, Simon A (2001) Erodibility of cohesive streambeds in the loess area of the midwestern USA. Hydrol Process 15(1):23–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He SM, Ouyang CJ, Liu W, Wang DP (2016) Coupled model of two-phase debris flow, sediment transport and morphological evolution. Acta Geologica Sinica-English Edition 90(6):2206–2215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang Y, Cheng HL, Dai ZL, Xu Q, Liu F, Sawada K, Moriguchi S, Yashima A (2015) SPH-based numerical simulation of catastrophic debris flows after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Bull Eng Geol Environ 74(4):1137–1151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hungr O (1995) A model for the runout analysis of rapid flow slides, debris flows, and avalanches. Can Geotech J 32:610–623

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hungr O, McDougall S (2009) Two numerical models for landslide dynamic analysis. Comput Geosci 35(5):978–992

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ho KKS (2013) Managing the uncertainties of natural terrain landslides and extreme rainfall in Hong Kong. Landslide science and practice:285–302

  • Julien PY, Lan Y (1991) Rheology of hyperconcentrations. J Hydraul Eng 117(3):346–353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King JP (2013) Tsing Shan Debris Flow and Debris Flood, GEO Report No. 281. Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering and Development Department, Hong Kong

    Google Scholar 

  • Ko FWY, Lo FLC (2016) Rainfall-based landslide susceptibility analysis for natural terrain in Hong Kong - a direct stock taking approach. Eng Geol 215:95–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lam CLH, Lau JWC, Chan HW (2012) Factual report on Hong Kong rainfall and landslides in 2008, GEO Report No. 273. Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering and Development Department, Hong Kong

    Google Scholar 

  • Li ACO, Lau JWC, Cheung LLK, Lam CLH (2009) Review of landslides in 2008, GEO Report No. 274. Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering and Development Department, Hong Kong

    Google Scholar 

  • Li YM, Ma C, Wang YJ (2017) Landslides and debris flows caused by an extreme rainstorm on 21 July 2012 in mountains near Beijing, China. Bull Eng Geol Environ 3:1–16

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Brien JS, Julien PY (1988) Laboratory analysis of mudflow properties. J Hydraul Eng 114(8):877–887

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ouyang C, He S, Tang C (2015) Numerical analysis of dynamics of debris flow over erodible beds in Wenchuan earthquake-induced area. Eng Geol 194:62–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pudasaini SP (2012) A general two-phase debris flow model. J Geophys Res: Earth Surf 117:F03010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen P, Zhang LM, Chen HX, Fan RL (2018) EDDA 2.0: integrated simulation of debris flow initiation and dynamics considering two initiation mechanisms. Geosci Model Dev 11(7):2841–2856

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Staley DM, Kean JW, Cannon SH, Schmidt KM, Laber JL (2013) Objective definition of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California. Landslides 10(5):547–562

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takahashi T, Nakagawa H, Harada T, Yamashiki Y (1992) Routing debris flows with particle segregation. J Hydraul Eng 118(11):1490–1507

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organization (2009) Manual on estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP). WMO-No. 1045, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang LL, Zhang J, Zhang LM, Tang WH (2011) Stability analysis of rainfall-induced slope failures: a review. Geotech Eng Proc Instit Civ Eng 164(5):299–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang N, Matsushima T, Peng NB (2018) Numerical investigation of post-seismic debris flows in epicentral area of the Wenchuan earthquake. Bull Eng Geol Environ:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-018-1359-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang S, Zhang LM (2017) Impact of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China on subsequent long-term debris flow activities in the epicentral area. Geomorphology 276:86–103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang S, Zhang LM, Glade T (2014) Characteristics of earthquake- and rain-induced landslides near the epicentre of Wenchuan earthquake. Eng Geol 175:58–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang S, Zhang LM, Chen HX, Yuan Q, Pan H (2013) Changes in runout distances of debris flows over time in the Wenchuan earthquake zone. J Mt Sci 10(2):281–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu H, Zhang LM, Xiao T, Li XY (2017) Enhancement of slope stability by vegetation considering uncertainties in root distribution. Comput Geotech 85:84–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu H, Zhang LM (2015) Evaluating suction profile in a vegetated slope considering uncertainty in evapotranspiration. Comput Geotech 63(1):112–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the support from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong SAR (no. C6012-15G and no. 16206217).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clearwater Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong

    S. Y. Zhou, L. Gao & L. M. Zhang

Authors
  1. S. Y. Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. L. Gao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. L. M. Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to L. M. Zhang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhou, S.Y., Gao, L. & Zhang, L.M. Predicting debris-flow clusters under extreme rainstorms: a case study on Hong Kong Island. Bull Eng Geol Environ 78, 5775–5794 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-019-01504-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-019-01504-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation