Abstract
Climate extremes pose significant risks to human health, agriculture, and water resources. These extremes are defined as long-term, unusual events that fall into the 10th or 90th percentile of a probability density function derived from observations at a certain location (e.g., drought and wildfire). The quantification of future climate risks is based on climate model predictions. Here, we present a review of literature focusing on extreme climate projections in the latest generation of climate models, namely, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) from 2020 to the present. We highlight the extreme events that could cause potential societal risks, including precipitation (the 90th percentile of the cumulative frequency distribution of daily precipitation), temperature (the 10th or 90th percentile of daily temperature within a reference period), droughts (meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural), floods, heat waves, and compound/concurrent extremes. Regionally, the precipitation extremes are projected to increase in North Africa (Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya), followed by drying in South Africa. Heatwaves will increase in a warming scenario (SSP3-7.0) in Asia (Indo-Gangetic Plain) and Afghanistan. The rise in heat stress intensity in Asia will augment the climate risks to agriculture under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. On a global scale, land areas are projected to face severe drought specifically in higher biomass regions, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Future droughts bring hazards to Europe and the Amazon River basin with severe aridification over Australia, the Middle East, South and North Africa, and Central Asia. The CMIP6 model projections on a regional and global scale over the US Southwest predict intense drought and hot dry summers. The study supplements the discussion section by providing insights on sources of uncertainty in extreme event projections, the role of emergent constraints in uncertainty reduction, and the impact of extremes on water resources, agriculture, and human health.
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Acknowledgements
Suchithra Sundaram acknowledges Department of Science and Technology, India, for her fellowship (DST/WOS-A/EA-19/2020(G))).
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Conceptualization, methodology, software, visualization; validation, writing—original draft preparation-DR, VK, and SS; formal analysis, writing—review and editing, VK and SS. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
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Deepa, R., Kumar, V. & Sundaram, S. A systematic review of regional and global climate extremes in CMIP6 models under shared socio-economic pathways. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 2523–2543 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04872-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04872-3