Abstract
Disasters caused by rainfall extremes represent social challenges in several sectors, especially in climate change scenarios. Along with changes in land use and land cover, this relationship may become more complex. Thus, the present study aimed to detect recent trends in the pattern of rainfall indicators and associate them with records of natural disasters and the evolution of changes in land use and land cover for the state of Espírito Santo, southeastern Brazil. Daily rainfall data from 77 rain gauge stations from 1970 to 2018 were used to analyze climate trends in different rainfall indicators obtained using the RClimDex software. Records of natural disasters from 1991 to 2020 in the state of Espírito Santo were gathered from the Brazilian Integrated Disaster Information System. Additionally, land use and land cover data from 1985 and 2019 were also used. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test and the Sen slope were used to detect and quantify trends. In the Litoral Norte Espírito-santense and Noroeste Espírito-santense mesoregions of the State, trends of drought intensification are expected mainly in the regions further north. Associated with the great recent agricultural expansion in the region, this trend is concerning. The Central Espírito-santense and Sul Espírito-santense mesoregions tend to become wetter, which explains the recent increase in floods and heavy rainfall. No significant trends were found in the other regions studied. The approach adopted in this study has the potential to assist decision-making, implement mitigation and/or adaptation measures, and reduce the impacts of natural disasters in different regions of the world.
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Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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This research was funded by Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES)—grant number 001; and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico – Brasil (CNPq) – grant number 304916/2017–0.
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All authors contributed to the study conception, design, investigation, formal analysis, and write the original draft of the manuscript. Material preparation and data collection were performed by Mariza Pereira de Oliveira Roza. The supervision, project administration, and funding acquisition were performed by Roberto Avelino Cecílio. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Mariza Pereira de Oliveira Roza, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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de Oliveira Roza, M.P., Cecílio, R.A., Zanetti, S.S. et al. Natural disasters related to rainfall trends in Espírito Santo, southeastern Brazil. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 1451–1466 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04703-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04703-x