Abstract
Under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, few studies have explored the different influences of CO2, temperature, and precipitation on wheat yield in China. Hence, we analyzed the different influences of above factors on wheat yield after analyzing the wheat yield change. Results show that (1) the wheat yield of China would increase under the two warming scenarios. The spring wheat yield of the Northeast Spring Wheat Region (DB_S) and the Northwest Spring Wheat Region (XB_S) would increase more than that in the other two spring wheat-planting subregions. The winter wheat yield of the Southwest Winter Wheat Region (XN_W) and Middle and Lower Yangtze Winter Wheat Region (CJ_W) would increase more significantly compared with that in the other three winter wheat-planting subregions. (2) CO2 fertilization was identified as the main factor leading to a wheat yield increase, with an estimated increase of 12–18% under the 1.5 °C warming scenario and 18–21% under the 2.0 °C warming scenario. (3) Without considering CO2 fertilization, compared with precipitation, temperature dominated the spatial patterns of the wheat yield responses to climate change. Temperature influence on wheat yield was mainly reflected in the amplitudes of yield increase, while precipitation mainly affected the proportion of yield-increasing area. For wheat-planting regions with less precipitation, such as the North Spring Wheat Region (BB_S) and the Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Region (HH_W), the wheat yield increase caused by precipitation was usually more pronounced. Our findings would help inform policy decisions related to wheat production in China to better cope with future climate warming.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
References
Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P, Rotter RP, Lobell DB, Cammarano D, Kimball BA, Ottman MJ, Wall GW, White JW, Reynolds MP, Alderman PD, Prasad PVV, Aggarwal PK, Anothai J, Basso B, Biernath C, Challinor AJ, De Sanctis G et al (2015) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat Clim Chang 5:143–147
Brown RA, Rosenberg NJ (1997) Sensitivity of crop yield and water use to change in a range of climatic factors and CO2 concentrations: a simulation study applying EPIC to the central USA. Agric For Meteorol 83:171–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(96)02352-0
Cai C, Yin X, He S, Jiang W, Si C, Struik PC, Luo W, Li G, Xie Y, Xiong Y, Pan G (2016) Responses of wheat and rice to factorial combinations of ambient and elevated CO2 and temperature in FACE experiments. Glob Chang Biol 22:856–874. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13065
Chen Y, Zhang Z, Tao F (2018) Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. Earth System Dynamics 9:543–562
Confalonieri R, Acutis M, Bellocchi G, Donatelli M (2009) Multi-metric evaluation of the models WARM, CropSyst, and WOFOST for rice. Ecol Model 220:1395–1410. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.02.017
Dias AS, Lidon FC (2009) Evaluation of grain filling rate and duration in bread and durum wheat, under heat stress after anthesis. J Agron Crop Sci 195:137–147. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-037X.2008.00347.x
Du X, Gao Z, Sun X, Bian D, Ren J, Yan P, Cui Y (2021) Increasing temperature during early spring increases winter wheat grain yield by advancing phenology and mitigating leaf senescence. Sci Total Environ 812:152557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152557
Duan Q, Sorooshian S, Gupta V (1992) Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models. Water Resour Res 28(4):1015–1031. https://doi.org/10.1029/91WR02985
Fang S, Shen B, Tan K, Gao X (2010) Effect of elevated CO2 concentration and increased temperature on physiology and production of crops. Chin J Eco-Agric 18:1116–1124
Fang S, Tan K, Ren S, Zhang X, Zhao J (2012) Fields experiments in North China show no decrease in winter wheat yields with night temperature increased by 2.0–2.5°C. Sci China Earth Sci 55:1021–1027. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-012-4404-5
FAO (2018) FAO Statistical Yearbook 2018. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC. Accessed 28 June 2023
He L, Asseng S, Zhao G, Wu D, Yang X, Zhuang W, Jin N, Yu Q (2015) Impacts of recent climate warming, cultivar changes, and crop management on winter wheat phenology across the Loess Plateau of China. Agric For Meteorol 200:135–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.09.011
Hou R, Ouyang Z, Li Y, Wilson GV, Li H (2012) Is the change of winter wheat yield under warming caused by shortened reproductive period? Ecol Evol 2:2999–3008. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.403
Houma AA, Kamal MR, Mojid MA, Abdullah AFB, Wayayok A (2021) Climate change impacts on rice yield of a large-scale irrigation scheme in Malaysia. Agric Water Manag 252:106908. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106908
Huang C, Li N, Zhang Z, Liu Y, Chen X, Wang F, Chen Q (2020) What is the consensus from multiple conclusions of future crop yield changes affected by climate change in China? Int J Environ Res Public Health 17:9241. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17249241
IPCC (2022) Framing and context. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C: IPCC Special Report on Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-industrial Levels in Context of Strengthening Response to Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 49–92. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.003
Jamieson PD, Porter JR, Wilson DR (1991) A test of the computer simulation model ARCWHEAT1 on wheat crops grown in New Zealand. Field Crop Res 27:337–350. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4290(91)90040-3
King AD, Karoly DJ, Henley BJ (2017) Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming. Nat Clim Chang 7:412–416. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3296
Li Y, Hou R, Liu X, Chen Y, Tao F (2022) Changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes in conventional vs. conservational tillage systems. Sci Total Environ 815:152947. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.152947
Li Y, Hou R, Tao F (2020a) Interactive effects of different warming levels and tillage managements on winter wheat growth, physiological processes, grain yield and quality in the North China Plain. Agric Ecosyst Environ 295:106923. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2020.106923
Li Y, Li F, Yang F, Xie X, Yin L (2020b) Spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on food production: case study of Shaanxi Province, China. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 27:19826–19835. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08447-3
Li Y, Ye W, Wang M, Yan X (2009) Climate change and drought: a risk assessment of crop-yield impacts. Clim Res 39:31–46
Liu B, Martre P, Ewert F, Porter JR, Challinor AJ, Müller C, Ruane AC, Waha K, Thorburn PJ, Aggarwal PK, Ahmed M, Balkovič J, Basso B, Biernath C, Bindi M, Cammarano D, Sanctis GD, Dumont B, Espadafor M et al (2019) Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming. Glob Chang Biol 25(4):1428–1444. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14542
Liu W, Ye T, Jägermeyr J, Müller C, Chen S, Liu X, Shi P (2021) Future climate change significantly alters interannual wheat yield variability over half of harvested areas. Environ Res Lett 16:094045. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1fbb
Liu X, Ma Q, Yu H, Li Y, Zhou L, He Q, Xu Z, Zhou G (2020a) Responses of plant biomass and yield component in rice, wheat, and maize to climatic warming: a meta-analysis. Planta 252:90. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00425-020-03495-y
Liu Y, Tang L, Qiu X, Liu B, Chang X, Liu L, Zhang X, Cao W, Zhu Y (2020b) Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming on rice production across China. Agric For Meteorol 284:107900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.107900
Liu Y, Zhang J, Pan T, Chen Q, Qin Y, Ge Q (2022) Climate-associated major food crops production change under multi-scenario in China. Sci Total Environ 811:151393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151393
Lobell DB, Asseng S (2017) Comparing estimates of climate change impacts from process-based and statistical crop models. Environ Res Lett 12:015001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa518a
Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531
Lv Z, Liu X, Cao W, Zhu Y (2013) Climate change impacts on regional winter wheat production in main wheat production regions of China. Agric For Meteorol 171:234–248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.12.008
Ma X, Zhao C, Tao H, Zhu J, Kundzewicz ZW (2018) Projections of actual evapotranspiration under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios in sandy areas in northern China. Sci Total Environ 645:1496–1508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.253
Ma X, Zhao C, Yan W, Zhao X (2019) Influences of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios on water use efficiency dynamics in the sandy areas of northern China. Sci Total Environ 664:161–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.402
Nam WH, Hong EM, Baigorria GA (2015) How climate change has affected the spatio-temporal patterns of precipitation and temperature at various time scales in North Korea. Int J Climatol 36:722–734
Nunes HGGC, Farias VDS, Sousa DP, Costa DLP, Pinto JVN, Moura VB, Teixeira EO, Lima MJA, Ortega-Farias S, Souza PJOP (2021) Parameterization of the AquaCrop model for cowpea and assessing the impact of sowing dates normally used on yield. Agric Water Manag 252:106880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106880
Pequeno DNL, Hernandez-Ochoa IM, Reynolds M, Sonder K, MoleroMilan A, Robertson RD, Lopes MS, Xiong W, Kropff M, Asseng S (2021) Climate impact and adaptation to heat and drought stress of regional and global wheat production. Environ Res Lett 16:054070
Qian B, Zhang X, Smith W, Grant B, Jing Q, Cannon A, Neilsen D, McConkey B, Li G, Bonsal B, Wan H, Xue L, Zhao J (2019) Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0°C. Environ Res Lett 14(7):074005
Qu C-h, Li X-x, Ju H, Liu Q (2019) The impacts of climate change on wheat yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China using DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model under different climate scenarios. J Integr Agric 18:1379–1391. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(19)62585-2
Rashid MA, Jabloun M, Andersen MN, Zhang X, Olesen JE (2019) Climate change is expected to increase yield and water use efficiency of wheat in the North China Plain. Agric Water Manag 222:193–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.06.004
Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, Ruane AC, Müller C, Arneth A, Boote KJ, Folberth C, Glotter M, Khabarov N, Neumann K, Piontek F, Pugh TAM, Schmid E, Stehfest E, Yang H, Jones JW (2014) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 111:3268–3273. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222463110
Sage RF, Sharkey TD (1987) The effect of temperature on the occurrence of O2 and CO2 insensitive photosynthesis in field grown plants 1. Plant Physiol 84:658–664. https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.84.3.658
Schleussner C-F, Deryng D, Müller C, Elliott J, Saeed F, Folberth C, Liu W, Wang X, Pugh TAM, Thiery W, Seneviratne SI, Rogelj J (2018) Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty. Environ Res Lett 13:064007
Schleussner C-F, Rogelj J, Schaeffer M, Lissner T, Licker R, Fischer EM, Knutti R, Levermann A, Frieler K, Hare W (2016) Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Nat Clim Chang 6:827–835. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3096
Sun Q, Miao C, Hanel M, Borthwick AGL, Duan Q, Ji D, Li H (2019) Global heat stress on health, wildfires, and agricultural crops under different levels of climate warming. Environ Int 128:125–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.04.025
Tao F, Xiao D, Zhang S, Zhang Z, Rötter RP (2017) Wheat yield benefited from increases in minimum temperature in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the past three decades. Agric For Meteorol 239:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.02.033
Tao F, Zhang Z (2013) Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agric For Meteorol 170:146–165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.10.003
Tian Y, Chen J, Chen C, Deng A, Song Z, Zheng C, Hoogmoed W, Zhang W (2012) Warming impacts on winter wheat phenophase and grain yield under field conditions in Yangtze Delta Plain, China. Field Crop Res 134:193–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2012.05.013
Verrillo F, Badeck F-W, Terzi V, Rizza F, Bernardo L, Di Maro A, Fares C, Zaldei A, Miglietta F, Moschella A, Bracale M, Vannini C (2017) Elevated field atmospheric CO2 concentrations affect the characteristics of winter wheat (cv. Bologna) grains. Crop and Pasture. Science 68:713. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP17156
Wan W, Zhao J, Li HY, Mishra A, Hejazi M, Lu H, Demissie Y, Wang H (2018) A holistic view of water management impacts on future droughts: a global multimodel analysis. J Geophys Res Atmos 123:5947–5972. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD027825
Wanders N, Wada Y, van Lanen HAJ (2015) Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime. Earth System Dynamics 6:1–15. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-1-2015
Warszawski L, Frieler K, Huber V, Piontek F, Serdeczny O, Schewe J (2014) The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): project framework. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 111:3228–3232. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110
Xiao D, Bai H, Liu D (2018) Impact of future climate change on wheat production: a simulated case for China’s wheat system. Sustain 10:1277. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10041277
Xing H (2018) Water-saving irrigation of winter wheat by assimilation of remote-sensing data and crop model. China University of Mining & Technology
Yang H, Cai J (2020) A review on the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature on rice growth and development. J Anhui Agric Sci 48(24-27):30
Ye Z, Qiu X, Chen J, Cammarano D, Ge Z, Ruane AC, Liu L, Tang L, Cao W, Liu B, Zhu Y (2020) Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above pre-industrial on potential winter wheat production of China. Eur J Agron 120:126149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2020.126149
Yin H (2013) Application of AquaCrop model in deficit irrigation management of spring wheat in semi-arid region--a case study of Dingxi City, Gansu Province. Northwest Normal University
Yue Y, Li J, Ye X, Wang Z, Zhu AX, Wang J-a (2015) An EPIC model-based vulnerability assessment of wheat subject to drought. Nat Hazards 78:1629–1652. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1793-8
Yue Y, Wang L, Li J, Zhu AX (2018) An EPIC model-based wheat drought risk assessment using new climate scenarios in China. Clim Chang 147:539–553. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2150-1
Zhang C, Li Y, Yu Z, Liu J, Wang G, Liu X, Wu J, Yin K, Jin G (2021a) Mechanism of photosynthetic physiology and molecular biology of crop yield as affected by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature - a review. Soil and Crops 10:256–265
Zhang Y, Niu H, Yu Q (2021b) Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s. Ecol Indic 125:107588. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107588
Zhao C, Liu B, Piao SL, Wang XH, Lobell DB, Huang Y, Huang MT, Yao YT, Bassu S, Ciais P, Durand JL, Elliott J, Ewert F, Janssens IA, Li T, Lin E, Liu Q, Martre P, Muller C et al (2017) Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 114:9326–9331
Zhao GC (2010a) Study on Chinese wheat planting regionalization (I). J Triticeae Crops 30:886–895
Zhao GC (2010b) Study on Chinese wheat planting regionalization (II). J Triticeae Crops 30:1140–1147
Zheng C, Zhang J, Chen J, Chen C, Tian Y, Deng A, Song Z, Nawaz MM, van Groenigen KJ, Zhang W (2017) Nighttime warming increases winter-sown wheat yield across major Chinese cropping regions. Field Crop Res 214:202–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2017.09.014
Zhu X, Xu K, Liu Y, Guo R, Chen L (2021) Assessing the vulnerability and risk of maize to drought in China based on the AquaCrop model. Agric Syst 189:103040. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103040S1-13
Funding
This work has been supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 42071401).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation and data collection were performed by Feng Tian, Hongkui Zhou, Jianjun Wu, and Xinyi Han. Data analysis was performed by Jianhua Yang, Qiu Shen, Bingyu Zhao, Ruohua Du, and Jianhang Zhang. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Jianhua Yang, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary information
ESM 1
(DOCX 11051 kb)
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Yang, J., Tian, F., Zhou, H. et al. CO2 and temperature dominate the variation characteristics of wheat yield in China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Theor Appl Climatol 154, 627–641 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04574-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04574-2