Abstract
Temperature inversions are a common feature of the Arctic climate, affecting the surface energy budget and planetary boundary layer transports. This study investigates the evolution of large-scale temperature inversions (between 925 hPa and 2 m) in the context of a changing climate. To this end, two five-member regional climate model (RCM) ensembles, driven by the Canadian Earth System Model, spanning the 1950–2099 period, corresponding to two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), are considered. An ERA-Interim driven simulation for the 1979–2005 period is also considered to assess model performance. A comparison of observed atmospheric soundings with the boundary layer variations in the reanalysis-driven simulation indicates that the model captures the temperature inversion characteristics reasonably well, with some positive biases in the temperature inversion strength and frequency. The transient regional climate change simulations suggest substantial decreases in both temperature inversion strength and frequency in winter in future climate for both emission scenarios. These changes are consistent with the reduced sea ice cover and the associated increase in cloud cover that reduce the surface radiative cooling necessary for the formation of strong temperature inversions. Some increases in the frequency and strength of temperature inversions are projected for summer over the Arctic Ocean, possibly linked with increased poleward moisture transport.
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The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author.
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The code used to generate the plots and to analyze the data can be found at https://github.com/caioruman.
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Acknowledgements
CJR acknowledges the support of the McGill Engineering Doctoral Awards (MEDA) program. The GEM simulations in this study were performed on supercomputers managed by Calcul Québec and Compute Canada.
Funding
This work was supported by funding from the Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction, and Response (MEOPAR)/Polar Knowledge Canada (POLAR) Year of Polar Prediction project “Predicting the Future(s) of Renewable Energy in Canada’s Arctic.” AHM acknowledges the support of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) [funding reference number RGPIN-2019–04986].
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C. J. Ruman analyzed the data and wrote the manuscript with editorial assistance from L. Sushama and A. Monahan.
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Ruman, C.J., Monahan, A.H. & Sushama, L. Climatology of Arctic temperature inversions in current and future climates. Theor Appl Climatol 150, 121–134 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04147-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04147-9