Skip to main content
Springer Nature Link
Log in

Assessment of changes in climate extremes of temperature and precipitation over Iran

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Intense industrial activity has led to an increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere over the past few decades, whereby the climate change phenomenon has been recognized. Increasing greenhouse gases have been changing patterns and trends of extreme climate variables that are of great importance in agriculture, water resources, and environmental hazards. In the present study, the changes and trends in climate extremes of temperature and precipitation were evaluated based on various extreme-related indices over Iran. For this purpose, both daily temperature and precipitation data of 76 synoptic stations were selected for trend analysis throughout Iran during the period 1981–2010. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator are used to investigate the trends in the selected data sets. The results of 11 extreme temperature-related indices showed, in general, warm indices such as the number of warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p), and warm spell duration (WSDI) had an increasing trend whereas trends in cold indices such as the number of cool days (TX10p), cool nights (TN10p), and cold spell duration (CSDI) decreased. The monthly maximum value of daily maximum (TXx) and minimum (TNx) temperatures increased by 0.3 and 0.4 °C/decade on average, respectively; and the monthly minimum value of daily maximum (TXn) and minimum (TNn) temperatures increased by 0.1 and 0.3 °C/decade, respectively, on average during the study period. In the case of the extreme precipitation-related indices, the results indicated both a decreasing trend in precipitation amount and intensity, and an increasing trend in the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) at most of the selected stations. Surveys demonstrated that the western, northern, and northwestern regions of Iran were most affected by the risk of climate extremes. Thus, these extreme changes will make people more vulnerable to natural hazards and make proper management in the face of climate crises more necessary.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Tagipour A Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P,Rusticucci M, Vazquez Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 111:D05109

  • Alijani B, Farajzadeh H (2015) The trend analysis of the northern temperature of Iran. J Geogr Plan 52:229–256 (In Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Asgari A, Rahimzadeh F, Mohammadian N, Fattahi E (2008) Trend analysis of extreme precipitation indices over Iran. Iran Water Resour Res 3(3):42–55 (In Persian)

  • Ávila A, Justino F, Wilson A, Bromwich D, Amorim M (2016) Recent precipitation trends, flash floods and landslides in southern Brazil. Environ Res Lett 11(11):114029

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Babaei O, Ghasemi E, Fatahi F (2014) Assessment of climate change effects on extreme precipitation indices over Iran. J Spat Assess Nat Hazard 3:85–103

    Google Scholar 

  • Balling RC, Keikhosravi Kiany MS, Sen Roy S, Khoshhal J (2016) Trends in extreme precipitation indices in Iran: 1951–2007. Theor Appl Climatol 126:775–795

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cropper T, Cropper P (2016) A 133-year record of climate change and variability from Sheffield, England. Climate 4(3):46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinpashoh Y, Jhajharia D, Fakheri-Fard A, Singh VP, Kahya E (2011) Trends in reference crop evapotranspiration over Iran. J Hydrol 399(3):422–433

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donat MG, Alexander LV, Yang H, Durre I, Vose R, Dunn RJH, Willett KM, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Caesar J, Hewitson B, Jack C, Klein Tank AMG, Kruger AC, Marengo J, Peterson TC, Renom M, Oria Rojas C, Rusticucci M, Salinger J, Elrayah AS, Sekele SS, Srivastava AK, Trewin B, Villarroel C, Vincent LA, Zhai P, Zhang X, Kitching S (2013) Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: the HadEX2 dataset. J Geophys Res 118:2098–2118

  • Erfanian M, Ansari H, Alizadeh A, Benayan Aval M (2014) Assessment of climatic extreme events variations in Khorasan Razavi province. Iran J Irrig Drain 4:817–825 (In Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Fathian F, Morid S, Kahya E (2015) Identification of trends in hydrological and climatic variables in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 119(3–4):443–464

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001) Climate change-the scientific basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change-the scientific basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Islam N (2009) Understanding the rainfall climatology and detection of extreme weather events in the SAARC region part II utilization of RCM data. SMRC-No. 29, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, 1–58

  • Karki R, Schickhoff U, Scholten T, Böhner J (2017) Rising precipitation extremes across Nepal. Climate 5(1):4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods, 4th edn. Charles Griffin & Company Limited, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kharin VV, Zwiers FW (2000) Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. J Clim 13(21):3760–3788

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiktev D, Sexton DMH, Alexander L, Folland CK (2003) Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J Clim 16:3560–3571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein Tank AMG, Peterson TC, Quadir DA, Dorji S, Zou X, Tang H, Santhosh K, Joshi UR, Jaswal AK, Kolli RK, Sikder AB, Deshpande NR, Revadekar JV, Yeleuova K, Vandasheva S, Faleyeva M, Gomboluudev P, Budhathoki KP, Hussain A, Afzaal M, Chandrapala L, Anvar H, Amanmurad D, Asanova VS, Jones PD, New MG, Spektorman T (2006) Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia. J Geophys Res 111:D16105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koozegaran S, Mousavai Bayegi M (2015) Investigating the trend of extreme weather events in northeastern Iran. J Soil Water 3:750–764 (In Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mianabadi A, Shirazi P, Ghahraman B, Coenders-Gerrits AMJ, Alizadeh A, Davary K (2019) Assessment of short-and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966–2015. Theor Appl Climatol 135(1–2):677–691

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Modarres R, Sarhadi A (2009) Rainfall trends analysis of Iran in the last half of the twentieth century. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010707

  • Modarres R, Sarhadi A, Burn DH (2016) Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran. Glob Planet Chang 144:67–81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohan S, Clarke RM, Chadee XT (2020) Variations in extreme temperature and precipitation for a Caribbean island: Barbados (1969–2017). Theor Appl Climatol 140:1277–1290. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03157-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls N, Gruza GV, Jouzel J, Karl TR, Ogallo LR, Parker DE (1996) Observed climate variability and change. In: Houghton JT, Filho LGM, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K (eds) Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 133–192

    Google Scholar 

  • Nkemelang T, New M, Zaroug M (2018) Temperature and precipitation extremes under current, 1.5 C and 2.0 C global warming above pre-industrial levels over Botswana, and implications for climate change vulnerability. Environ Res Lett 13(6):065016

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nourani V, Nezamdoost N, Samadi M, Daneshvar Vousoughi F (2015) Wavelet-based trend analysis of hydrological processes at different timescales. J Water Clim Change 6(3):414–435

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahimzadeh F, Asgari A, Fattahi E (2009) Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. Int J Climatol 29(3):329–343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raziei T, Saghafian B, Paulo AA, Pereira LS, Bodri I (2009) Spatial patterns and temporal variability of drought in Western Iran. Water Resour Manag 23:439–455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raziei T, Daryabari J, Bordi I, Modarres R, Pereira LS (2014) Spatial patterns and temporal trends of daily precipitation indices in Iran. Clim Chang 124(1–2):239–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shrestha AB, Bajracharya SR, Sharma AR, Duo C, Kulkarni A (2017) Observed trends and changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes over the Koshi river basin 1975–2010. Int J Climatol 37(2):1066–1083

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soleimani K, Ramezani N, Ahmadi MZ, Bayat F (2005) Drought and rainfall trend analysis in Mazandaran watershed. Khazar Agric Nat Resour Bull 1(3):13–28

    Google Scholar 

  • Soltani M, Laux P, Kunstmann H, Stan K, Sohrabi MM, Molanejad M, Sabziparvar AA, Ranjbar SaadatAbadi A, Ranjbar F, Rousta I, Zawar-Reza P, Khoshakhlagh F, Soltanzadeh I, Babu CA, Azizi GH, Martin MV (2016) Assessment of climate variations in temperature and precipitation extreme events over Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 126:775–795

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Hosseinzadeh Talaee P (2011) Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966–2005. J Hydrol 396:313–320

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Klein Tank A, Parker D, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick JA, Rusticucci M, Sodan B, Zhai P (2007) Observation: surface and atmospheric climate change. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge university press: UK, New York

  • Wang XL, Feng Y (2010) RHtestsV3 user manual. Climate research division, science and technology branch, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Published online at http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/software.shtml.

  • Wang L, Yao ZJ, Jiang LG, Wang R, Wu SS, Liu ZF (2016) Changes in climate extremes and catastrophic events in the Mongolian plateau from 1951 to 2012. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 55(5):1169–1182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whan K, Alexander LV, Imielska A, McGree S, Jones D, Ene E, Finaulahi S, Inape K, Jacklick L, Kumar R, Laurent V, Malala H, Malsale P, Pulehetoa-Mitiepo R, Ngemaes M, Peltier A, Porteous A, Seuseu S, Skilling E, Tahani L, Toorua U, Vaiimene M (2014) Trends and variability of temperature extremes in the tropical Western Pacific. Int J Climatol 34(8):2585–2603

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yazdani S, Haghsheno M (2008) Drought management and recommended solutions on how to deal with droughts. Americ Eurasian J Agric Environ Sci 2:64–68

    Google Scholar 

  • You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Yan Y (2008) Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005. J Geophys Res Atmos 113(D7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009389

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the editor and the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions which helped us improve the quality of the article.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Science & Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, P.O.Box 77188-97111, Rafsanjan, Iran

    Farshad Fathian

  2. Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology, P.O.Box 84156-83111, Isfahan, Iran

    Mohammad Ghadami, Mohsen Amini & Sohrab Naderi

  3. Department of New Science and Technology, University of Tehran, P.O.Box 14174-14418, Tehran, Iran

    Parsa Haghighi

  4. Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Science Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, P.O.Box 19839-63113, Tehran, Iran

    Zeinab Ghaedi

Authors
  1. Farshad Fathian
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mohammad Ghadami
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. Parsa Haghighi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  4. Mohsen Amini
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  5. Sohrab Naderi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  6. Zeinab Ghaedi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Farshad Fathian.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Fathian, F., Ghadami, M., Haghighi, P. et al. Assessment of changes in climate extremes of temperature and precipitation over Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 141, 1119–1133 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03269-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03269-2