Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Temperature trends for coastal and adjacent higher lying interior regions of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Temperature trends for KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa, are investigated for the period 1930–2015, with the intention to test whether interior regions (within ~ 100 km of the coast) are warming faster than coastal regions, given oceanic moderating effects along the coast. This is achieved through analyzing instrumental temperature records from the coastal station of Mount Edgecombe, and adjacent interior stations of Cedara and Emerald Dale. The modified Mann-Kendall test is used to determine annual and seasonal mean temperature (\( \overline{T} \)), maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends for the period 1930–2015, and for the most recent few decades. For annual Tmax, a significant increasing trend (0.07 °C/decade) is recorded at the coast, whereas adjacent interior stations record no trend. Annual Tmin record significant warming at all stations, with warming rates over the interior being double that recorded at the coast for the period 1930–2015. For seasonal Tmin over the interior, significant warming rates are recorded: 0.21 °C/decade (summer), 0.22 °C/decade (autumn), 0.20 °C/decade (winter), and 0.15 °C/decade (spring). Seasonal Tmin warming over the coast were also significant: 0.16 °C/decade (summer), 0.08 °C/decade (autumn), 0.06 °C/decade (winter), and 0.12 °C/decade (spring). Thus, higher lying interior regions are warming at considerably greater magnitudes compared to adjacent coastal areas, mainly due to Tmin warming trends. For the period 1930–2015, record positive annual Tmax anomalies are reported for 2015 at Mount Edgecombe (mean anomaly = 1.6 °C), Cedara (mean anomaly = 1.7 °C), and Emerald Dale (mean anomaly = 2.0 °C).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ageena I, Macdonald N, Morse AP (2014) Variability of maximum and mean average temperature across Libya (1945–2009). Theor Appl Climatol 117:549–563. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1012-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baumann H, Doherty O (2013) Decadal changes in the world’s coastal latitudinal temperature gradients. PlosOne 8:e67596. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0067596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eeley HAC, Lawes MJ, Piper SE (1999) The influence of climate change on the distribution of indigenous forest in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. J Biogeogr 26:595–617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Falvey M, Garreaud RD (2009) Regional cooling in a warming world: recent temperature trends in the southeast Pacific and along the west coast of subtropical South America (1979–2006). J Geophys Res 114:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gocic M, Trajkovic S (2013) Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Glob Planet Chang 100:172–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goschen WS, Bornman TG, Deyzel SHP, Schumann EH (2015) Coastal upwelling on the far eastern Agulhas Bank associated with large meanders in the Agulhas Current. Cont Shelf Res 101:34–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Green AN, Ovechkina MN, Mostovski MB (2012) Late Holocene shore face evolution of the wave dominated Durban Bight, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a mixed storm and current driven system. Cont Shelf Res 49:56–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2012.09.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanna E, Mernild SH, Cappelen J, Steffen K (2012) Recent warming in Greenland in a long-term instrumental (1881–2012) climatic context: I. Evaluation of surface air temperature records. Environ Res Lett 7:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045404

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones PD, Raper SCB, Wigley TML, Diaz HF, Kelly PM Wigley TML (1986) Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature varations: 1851-1984. J Clim Appl Meteorol 25:161–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones PD, Parker DE, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR (2016) Global and hemispheric temperature anomalies—land and marine instrumental records. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi: https://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/cli.002 http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/jones.html Accessed 31 July 2018

  • Jury MR (1998) Statistical analysis and prediction of KwaZulu-Natal climate. Theor Appl Climatol 60:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kafle HK, Bruins HJ (2009) Climatic trends in Israel 1970-2002: warmer and increasing aridity inland. Clim Chang 96:63–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kenawy AE, Lopez-Moreno JI, Štěpánek P, Vicente-Serrano SM (2013) An assessment of the role of homogenization protocol in the performance of daily temperature series and trends: application to northeastern Spain. Int J Climatol 33:87–108

  • King'uyu SM, Ogallo LA, Anyamba EK (2000) Recent trends of minimum and maximum surface temperatures over Eastern Africa. J Clim 13:2876–2886

  • Kruger AC, Nxumalo M (2017) Surface temperature trends from homogenized time series in South Africa: 1931-2015. Int J Climatol 37:2364–2377

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kruger AC, Shongwe S (2004) Temperature trends in South Africa: 1960–2003. Int J Climatol 24:1929–1945. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1096

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lakhraj-Govender R, Grab S, Ndebele NE (2017) A homogenized long-term temperature record for the Western Cape Province in South Africa: 1916-2013. Int J Climatol 37:2337–2357

  • Landman WA, Kgatuke MJ, Mbedzi M, Beraki A, Bartman A, du Piesanie A (2009) Performance comparison of some dynamical and empirical downscaling methods for South Africa from a seasonal climate modelling perspective. Int J Climatol 29:1535–1549

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lebassi B, Gonzalez J, Fabris D, Maurer E, Miller N, Milesi C, Bornstein R (2009) Observed 1970-2005 cooling of summer daytime temperatures in coastal California. J Clim 22:3558–3573

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lima FP, Wethey DS (2012) Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming. Nat Commun 704:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1713

    Google Scholar 

  • MacKellar N, New M, Jack C (2014) Observed and modelled trends in rainfall and temperature for South Africa: 1960–2010. S Afr J Sci 110:1–13 https://doi.org/10.1590/sajs.2014/20130353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B (2007) The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ Urban 19:17–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGregor HV, Dima M, Fischer HW, Mulitza S (2007) Rapid 20th century increase in coastal upwelling off Northwest Africa. Science 315:637–639. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1134839

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan MR, Drinkwater KF, Pocklington R (1993) Temperature trends at coastal stations in eastern Canada. Climatol Bull 27:135–153

  • NOAA central library (2013) Department of Transport Reports on Meteorological data (1920-1977) The government printer, Pretoria. Available online https://library.noaa.gov/Collections/Digital-Docs/Foreign-Climate-Data/South-Africa-Climate-Data. Accessed 22 July 2016

  • Reason CJC (2001) Evidence for the influence of the Agulhas Current on regional atmospheric circulation patterns. J Clim 14:2769–2778

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rebetez M, Reinhard M (2008) Monthly air temperature trends in Switzerland 1901-2000 and 1975-2004. Theor Appl Climatol 91:27–34. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0296-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rouault MJ, Penven P (2011) New perspectives on Natal Pulses from satellite observations. J Geophys Res 116:C07013. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006866

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rouault MJ, Penven P, Pohl B (2009) Warming in the Agulhas Current since 1980s. Geophys Res Lett 36:L12602. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037987

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santos F, Gomez-Gesteira M, de Castro M, Alvarez I (2012) Variability of coastal and ocean water temperature in the upper 700 m along the western Iberian Peninsula from 1975 to 2006. PlosOne 7:1–7. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0050666

    Google Scholar 

  • Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S, Harun SB, Katimon A (2012) Changes in diurnal temperature range in Bangladesh during the time period 1961–2008. Atmos Res 118:260–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.07.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sonali P, Kumar DN (2013) Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India. J Hydrol 476:212–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Štěpánek P (2008) AnClim—software for time series analysis. Dept. of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences, MU, Brno. http://www.climahom.eu/AnClim.html. Accessed 25 June 2015

  • Štěpánek P, Zahradníček P, Huth R (2011) Interpolation techniques used for data quality control and calculation of technical series: an example of Central European daily time series. Idöjárás 115:87–98

  • Tyler K, White T, Anslow F (2015) Indicators of climate change for British Columbia 2015 update. Ministry of Environment, Victoria, p 50

    Google Scholar 

  • Tyson PD, Preston-Whyte RA (2000) The weather and climate of southern Africa. Oxford University Press Southern Africa, Cape Town

    Google Scholar 

  • Venema VKC, Mestre O, Aguilar E, Auer I, Guijarro JA, Domonkos P, Vertacnik G, Szentimrey T, Štěpánek P, Zahradnicek P, Viarre J, Muller-Westermeier G, Lakatos M, Williams CN, Menne MJ, Lindau R, Rasol D, Rustemeier E, Kolokythas K, Marinova T, Andresen L, Acquaotta F, Fratianni S, Cheval S, Klancar M, Brunetti M, Gruber C, Prohom Duran M, Likso T, Esteban P, Brandsma T (2012) Benchmarking monthly homogenization algorithms. Clim Past 7:2655–2718. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-89-2012

  • XLSTAT (2015) Available online: https://www.xlstat.com/en/Accessed 2 January 2015

  • Yue S, Wang C (2004) The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18:201–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank SAWS for providing temperature data. RL-G appreciates the Department of Higher Education and Training Research Development Grant provided by the Tshwane University of Technology (TUT), South Africa, and the National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa (98258).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Environmental, Water and Earth Sciences, Tshwane University of Technology, 175 Nelson Mandela Drive, Arcadia campus, Pretoria, South Africa

    R. Lakhraj-Govender

  2. School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

    R. Lakhraj-Govender & SW. Grab

Authors
  1. R. Lakhraj-Govender
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. SW. Grab
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to R. Lakhraj-Govender.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 24 kb)

ESM 2

(DOCX 12 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Lakhraj-Govender, R., Grab, S. Temperature trends for coastal and adjacent higher lying interior regions of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 373–381 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2602-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2602-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation