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A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

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Abstract

Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the Non-profit Research Foundation for Meteorology of China (No. GYHY201506016), the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2012CB956204), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41371232 and 41271110), the Non-profit Research Foundation for Agriculture of China (No. 201103039), and the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (No. 2012BAD09B02).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China

    Zhiqiang Dong, Zhihua Pan, Pingli An, Jingting Zhang, Jun Zhang, Yuying Pan, Lei Huang, Hui Zhao, Guolin Han, Dong Wu, Jialin Wang, Dongliang Fan & Xuebiao Pan

  2. Shandong Provincial Climate Center, Jinan, 250031, China

    Zhiqiang Dong

  3. Key Ecology and Environment Experimental Station of Ministry of Agriculture for Field Scientific Observation in Hohhot, Wuchuan, Hohhot, 011705, China

    Zhiqiang Dong, Zhihua Pan, Pingli An, Jingting Zhang, Jun Zhang, Yuying Pan, Lei Huang, Hui Zhao, Guolin Han, Dong Wu, Jialin Wang, Dongliang Fan, Lin Gao & Xuebiao Pan

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  1. Zhiqiang Dong
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  2. Zhihua Pan
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  3. Pingli An
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  4. Jingting Zhang
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  5. Jun Zhang
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  6. Yuying Pan
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  7. Lei Huang
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  8. Hui Zhao
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  9. Guolin Han
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  10. Dong Wu
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  11. Jialin Wang
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  12. Dongliang Fan
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  13. Lin Gao
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  14. Xuebiao Pan
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Correspondence to Zhihua Pan.

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Dong, Z., Pan, Z., An, P. et al. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change. Theor Appl Climatol 131, 653–659 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1988-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1988-2

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