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Simulating the hydrological responses to climate change of the Xiang River basin, China

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Abstract

The responses of stream flow, actual evaporation, and soil moisture to climate change in six catchments within Xiang River basin, China, are investigated using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Results show that stream flows are highly correlated to precipitation while weakly correlated to temperature, which indicates precipitation governs variability of stream flow for these catchments. The VIC model performs well at simulating monthly discharge, with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies (NSEs) exceeding 70 % and relative errors (REs) of the volumetric fit falling in the range of ±10 % for both calibration and validation periods. The model can simulate seasonal cycles of soil moisture and actual evaporation reasonably well. Due to humid climate of the region, stream flows are more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to change in temperature, while soil moisture and actual evaporation tend to be relatively more affected by temperature. A 2 °C rise in temperature will lead to 5.62 % (4.3–7.45 %) decrease in stream flow, 6.45 % (5.8–7.02 %) increase in actual evaporation, and 5 % (4.16–5.59 %) decrease in soil moisture. A 10 % increase in precipitation will result in 14.17 % (13.44–15.70 %), 5.22 % (4.32–5.62 %), and 4.57 % (2.90–4.96 %) increases in stream flow, actual evaporation, and soil moisture, respectively.

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Acknowledgments

This study has been financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 41330854, 41371063, 41401026) and the National Key Technology R & D Program in the 12th 5-year Plan (grant nos. 2012BAC21B01, 2012BAC19B03). Thanks also to the anonymous reviewers and editors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China

    Guoqing Wang, Jianyun Zhang, Zhenxin Bao, Yanli Liu, Junliang Jin, Cuishan Liu & Xiaomeng Song

  2. Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China

    Yueping Xu

  3. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

    Thomas C. Pagano

  4. Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210067, China

    Sicheng Wan

Authors
  1. Guoqing Wang
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  2. Jianyun Zhang
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  3. Thomas C. Pagano
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  4. Yueping Xu
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  5. Zhenxin Bao
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  6. Yanli Liu
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  7. Junliang Jin
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  8. Cuishan Liu
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  9. Xiaomeng Song
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  10. Sicheng Wan
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Correspondence to Guoqing Wang.

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Wang, G., Zhang, J., Pagano, T.C. et al. Simulating the hydrological responses to climate change of the Xiang River basin, China. Theor Appl Climatol 124, 769–779 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1467-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1467-1

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