Skip to main content
Springer Nature Link
Log in

Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this study, trend analyses of historic past climatic variables were investigated for the Betwa basin located in Central India. In the serially independent climatic variables, Mann–Kendall test (MK test) was applied to the original sample data. However, in the serially correlated series, pre-whitening is used before employing the MK test. The long-term trend analysis showed several of the meteorological stations to exhibit a decreasing trend in annual and seasonal precipitation in the study area. Seasonal and yearly numbers of rainy days are decreased. However, onset of effective monsoon (except for Shivpuri and Tikamgarh stations) did not show any trend during the study period. For maximum temperature, five out of 12 stations showed a decreasing trend in monsoon season whereas almost all other stations showed an increasing trend in winter and no trend in summer season. For minimum temperature, only two stations of the basin showed a decreasing trend in monsoon and all other stations exhibited a significant increase in winter and summer season. The increase of winter temperature may adversely affect the growth of Rabi crop (wheat and mustard) in the study area. Potential evopotranspiration (PET) did not show any trend in monsoon, except for Jalaun and Jhansi stations, showing decreasing trends. Raisen and Vidisha stations showed an increasing trend in winter only, and the trend for other stations were random in nature. In summer, five out of 12 stations showed an increasing trend in PET. Results of this study can be employed in preparation of water resources development and management plan in the Betwa Basin.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

Explore related subjects

Discover the latest articles and news from researchers in related subjects, suggested using machine learning.

References

  • Anyadike RNC (1993) Seasonal and annual rainfall variations over Nigeria. Int J Climatol 13:567–580

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok Raj PC (1979) Onset of effective monsoon and critical dry spells. IARI Research Bulletin No.11, IARI, New Delhi

  • Aziz AO, Burn DH (2006) Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin. J Hydrol 319(1–4):282–294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Basistha A, Arya DS, Goel NK (2009) Analysis of historical changes in precipitation in the Indian Himalayas. Int J Climatol 29(4):555–572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burn DH, Hag Elnur MA (2002) Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. J Hydrol 255:107–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burn DH, Cunderlik JM, Pietroniro A (2004) Hydrological trends and variability in the Liard River basin. Hydrol Sci J 49(1):53–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaube UC (1988) Model study of water use and water balance in Betwa Basin. J Inst Eng India Civ Eng Div 69:169–173

    Google Scholar 

  • Chaube UC, Suryavanshi S, Nurzaman L, Pandey A (2011) Synthesis of flow series of tributaries in Upper Betwa basin. Int J Environ Sci 1(7):59–75

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen H, Guo S, Xu C, Singh VP (2007) Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin. J Hydrol 344:171–184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cruz RV, Harasawa H, Lal M, Wu S, Anokhin Y, Punsalmaa B, Honda Y, Jafari M, Li C, Huu NN (2007) In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Asia climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 469–506

    Google Scholar 

  • Douglas EM, Vogela RM, Kroll CN (2000) Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J Hydrol 240:90–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drosdowsky W (1993) An analysis of Australian seasonal rainfall anomalies: 1950–1987: II. Temporal variability and teleconnection patterns. Int J Climatol 13:111–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Granger OE (1977) Secular fluctuations of seasonal precipitation in lowland California. Mon Weather Rev 105:386–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hingane LS, Rupa Kumar K, Ramana Murthy BV (1985) Long-term trends of surface air temperature in India. J Climatol 5:521–528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirsch RM, Slack JR (1984) A nonparametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence. Water Resour Res 20(6):727–732

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA (1982) Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour Res 18(1):107–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kothawale DR, Revadekar JV, Rupa Kumar K (2010) Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India. J Earth Syst Sci 119(1):51–65

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar RK, Ashrit RG, Pant GB (2002) Indian summer monsoon: past, present and future. Sci Cult 68:217–224

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar KK, Patwardhan SK, Kulkarni A, Kamala K, Rao KK, Jones R (2011) Simulated projections for summer monsoon climate over India by a high-resolution regional climate model (PRECIS). Curr Sci 101(3):312–326

    Google Scholar 

  • Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Wallis JR (1994) Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States 1948–1988. J Clim 7(4):586–607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lins HF, Slack JR (1999) Streamflow trends in the United States. Geophys Res Lett 26(2):227–230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mall RK, Bhatia R, Pandey SN (2007) Water resources in India and impact of climate change. Jalvigyan Sameeksha 22:157–176

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matalas NC (1967) Time series analysis. Water Resour Res 3:817–829

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mirza MQ, Warrick RA, Ericksen NJ, Kenny GJ (1998) Trends and persistence in precipitation in Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins. Hydrol Sci 43:845–858

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mishra AK, Ozger M, Singh VP (2009) Trend and persistence of precipitation under climate change scenarios for Kansabati basin, India. Hydrol Processes 23:2345–2357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Water Policy (2012) Draft as recommended by National Water Board, Ministry of Water Resources, http://mowr.gov.in/writereaddata/linkimages/DraftNWP2012_English9353289094.pdf, accessed on 20 September 2012

  • Nicholson SE, Palao IM (1993) A re-evaluation of rainfall variability in the Sahel: Part I. Characteristics of rainfall fluctuations. Int J Climatol 13:371–389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ogallo L (1979) Rainfall variability in Africa. Mon Weather Rev 107:1133–1139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ojha CSP, Berndtsson R, Bhunya P (2008) Engineering hydrology. Oxford University Press, New York

  • Onoz B, Bayazit M (2003) The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turk J Eng Environ Sci 27:247–251

    Google Scholar 

  • Pal I, Al-Tabaa A (2011) Assessing seasonal precipitation trends in India using parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques. Theor Appl Climatol 103:1–11

    Google Scholar 

  • Ranade A, Singh N, Singh HN, Sontakke NA (2008) On variability of hydrological wet season, seasonal rainfall and rainwater potential of the river basins of India (1813–2006). J Hydrol Res Dev 23:79–108

    Google Scholar 

  • Rao PG (1993) Climatic changes and trends over a major river basin in India. Clim Res 2:215–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodhe H, Virji H (1976) Trends and periodicities in East African rainfall data. Mon Weather Rev 104:307–315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sinha Ray KC, Mukhopadhayay RK, Chowdhury SK (1997) Trends in maximum minimum temperatures and sea level pressure over India, INTROPMET-97, IIT New Delhi, 2–5 Dec., 1997

  • Some'e BS, Ezani A, Tabari H (2012) Spatiotemporal trends and change point of precipitation in Iran. Atmos Res 113:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sonali P, Kumar N (2013) Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect extreme temperature changes in India. J Hydrol 476:212–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Subash N, Sikka AK, Ram Mohan HS (2011) An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India – a historical perspective 1889–2008. Theor Appl Climatol 103:305–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Aghajanloo MB (2012) Temporal pattern of aridity index in Iran with considering precipitation and evapotranspiration trends. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3432

    Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Somee BS, Zadeh MR (2011) Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran. Atmos Res 100:132–140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theil H (1950) A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis. K Ned Akad Wet 53:386–392

    Google Scholar 

  • Türkes M (1998) Influence of geopotential heights, cyclone frequency and Southern Oscillation on rainfall variations in Turkey. Int J Climatol 18:649–680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Türkes M (1999) Vulnerability of Turkey to desertification with respect to precipitation and aridity conditions. Turk J Eng Environ Sci 23:363–380

    Google Scholar 

  • Türkes M, Sümer UM, Kiliç G (2002) Persistence and periodicity in the precipitation series of Turkey and associations with 500 hPa geopotential heights. Clim Res 21:59–81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • WCDMP-45 (2000) World climate programme – water, detecting trend and other changes in hydrological data. In: Kundzewicz ZW, Robson A (eds) Geneva, May 2000, United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, World Meteorological Organization

  • WMO (1966) Climatic change. WMO Technical Note 79, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva

  • Yevjevich V (1971) Stochastic processes in hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins

    Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P (2004) A comparison of the power of the t test, Mann Kendall and bootstrap tests for trend detection. Hydrol Sci J 49(1):21–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G (2002) Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho test for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. J Hydrol 259:254–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Jiang T, Gemmer M, Becker S (2005) Precipitation, temperature and runoff analysis from 1950–2002 in the Yangtze basin, China. Hydrol Sci J 50(1):65–80

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, SSET, Sam Higginbottom Institute of Agriculture, Technology and Sciences, Allahabad, 211007, India

    Shakti Suryavanshi

  2. Department of Water Resources Development and Management, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 247 667, India

    Ashish Pandey & Umesh Chandra Chaube

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 247 667, India

    Nitin Joshi

Authors
  1. Shakti Suryavanshi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ashish Pandey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. Umesh Chandra Chaube
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  4. Nitin Joshi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shakti Suryavanshi.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Suryavanshi, S., Pandey, A., Chaube, U.C. et al. Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India. Theor Appl Climatol 117, 403–418 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1013-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1013-y

Keywords

Profiles

  1. Ashish Pandey View author profile