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Long-term trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin in China

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Abstract

On the basis of the mean annual and seasonal temperatures from 30 meteorological stations in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) from 1961 to 2008, the temperature trends are analyzed by using Mann–Kendall test and linear trend analysis. There is an increasing trend in mean annual and seasonal temperatures during this period, and the increasing trends in winter seem more significant than those in the other three seasons. The mean annual temperature has increased by 0.0158°C/year during the last 48 years. There are more than 70% of stations exhibiting increasing trends for annual and seasonal temperatures. The increasing trends in the headwater and upper reaches are more dominant than those in the middle and lower reaches. The largest increase magnitude occurred in the low temperature area, while the largest decrease magnitude occurred in the high temperature area. The decreasing trends are mainly characterized for the maximum temperature time series, and summer is the only season showing a slight and insignificant increasing trend. All the time series showed a statistically significant increasing trend at the level of α = 0.05 for the minimum temperature time series. As a whole, the increasing magnitude of the minimum temperature is significantly greater than the decreasing magnitude of the maximum temperature.

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Acknowledgments

The paper was written with funding from the Institute of Plateau Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration (BROP201103, BROP201022 and BROP200907), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41075066) and China Meteorological Administration (CCFS-09-19). The opinions expressed here are those of the author and not those of other individuals or organizations. The constructive comments and suggestions from the editor and anonymous reviewers, which resulted in a significant improvement of the manuscript, are gratefully appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu, 610072, People’s Republic of China

    Shunjiu Wang

  2. Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610064, People’s Republic of China

    Xinli Zhang

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  1. Shunjiu Wang
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  2. Xinli Zhang
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Correspondence to Shunjiu Wang.

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Wang, S., Zhang, X. Long-term trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin in China. Theor Appl Climatol 109, 591–603 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0603-4

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