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Forecasting monthly precipitation in Central Chile: a self-organizing map approach using filtered sea surface temperature

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Abstract

Western South America is subject to considerable inter-annual variability due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) so forecasting inter-annual variations associated with ENSO would provide an opportunity to tailor management decisions more appropriately to the season. On one hand, the self-organizing maps (SOM) method is a suitable technique to explore the association between sea surface temperature and precipitation fields. On the other hand, Wavelet transform is a filtering technique, which allows the identification of relevant frequencies in signals, and also allows localization on time. Taking advantage of both methods, we present a method to forecast monthly precipitation using the SOM trained with filtered SST anomalies. The use of the SOM to forecast precipitation for Chillan showed good agreement between forecasted and measured values, with correlation coefficients (r 2) ranging from 0.72 to 0.91, making the combined use filtered SST fields and SOM a suitable tool to assist water management, for example in agricultural water management. The method can be easily tailored to be applied in other stations or to other variables.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the financial support from project FONDECYT No. 11090032. D Rivera is grateful for DAAD-CONICYT and Erasmus Mundus Postdoctoral Scholarships.SOM Toolbox by Alhoniemi, Himberg, Parhankangas and Vesanto. MATLAB codes and datasets are available upon request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources, University of Concepcion, Concepcion, Chile

    Diego Rivera, Mario Lillo & José Luis Arumí

  2. Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

    Cintia B. Uvo

  3. Institute of Water Resources Management, Hydrology and Agricultural Hydraulic Engineering, Leibniz University of Hannover, Hannover, Germany

    Max Billib

Authors
  1. Diego Rivera
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  2. Mario Lillo
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  3. Cintia B. Uvo
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  4. Max Billib
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  5. José Luis Arumí
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Correspondence to Diego Rivera.

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Rivera, D., Lillo, M., Uvo, C.B. et al. Forecasting monthly precipitation in Central Chile: a self-organizing map approach using filtered sea surface temperature. Theor Appl Climatol 107, 1–13 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0453-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0453-5

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