Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Validation of IPCC AR4 models over the Iberian Peninsula

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper reports analysis of the ability of 24 coupled global climate models that were used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to simulate the current monthly seasonal cycle of sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in the last two decades of the twentieth century. The period investigated runs from 1979 to 1998. In order to assess the performance of the models, averaged seasonal cycles and probability density functions (PDFs) calculated from model simulations are compared with the corresponding seasonal cycles, whilst PDFs are also obtained using the data from the ERA40 reanalysis and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. We found that simulated PDFs generally provided a better fit to actual PDFs than seasonal cycles do. This conclusion indicates that when evaluating model performance, the climate variability as measured by means of PDFs is not the only climatic element that should be tested. Regarding the comparison based on the seasonal cycle, results also show that the root mean square skill score is more useful than the r skill score. To rank the AR4 models, sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation variables were selected and a group of five AR4 models were identified as the models which best reproduce current climate in the area: MIROC3.2-HIRES, MPI-ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.1, BCCR-BCM2.0 and UKMO-HADGEM1. The rank obtained should not be understood in a hierarchical manner because there is a certain degree of internal variability in the model ensembles. Finally, it should be noted that these results are in good agreement with other classifications found in the scientific literature.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie P, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P, Nelkin E (2003) The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present). J Hydrometeor 4:1147–1167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahlfeld DP (2006) Comparison of climate model precipitation forecasts with North American Observations. Proceedings of the XVI International Conference on Computational Methods in Water Resources

  • Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticcucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111:D05109. doi:10.1029/ 2005JD006290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson L, Hagemann S, Hodges KI (2004) Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data? J Geophys Res 109:D11111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Biasutti M, Giannini A (2006) Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings. Geophys Res Lett 33:L11706. doi:10.1029/2006GL026067

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chelliah M, Ropelewski CF (2000) Reanalyses-based tropospheric temperature estimates: uncertainties in the context of global climate change detection. J Climate 13:3187–3205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collins WD et al (2006) The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). J Climate 19:2122–2143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Castro M, Martín-Vide J, Alonso S (2005) El clima de España: pasado, presente y escenarios de clima para el siglo XXI. In: Moreno JM (ed) Evaluación Preliminar general de los Impactos en España por Efecto del Cambio Climático. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. Universidad de Castilla La Mancha, Madrid

    Google Scholar 

  • Delworth TL et al (2006) GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: formulation and simulation characteristics. J Climate 19:643–674

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dessai S, Lu X, Hulme M (2005) Limited sensitivity analysis of regional climate change probabilities for the 21st century. J Geophys Res 110:D19108. doi:10.1029/ 2005JD005919

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diansky NA, Volodin EM (2002) Simulation of present-day climate with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. Izv Atmos Ocean Phys 38:732–747

    Google Scholar 

  • Fernández-Mills G (1995) Principal component analysis of precipitation and rainfall regionalization in Spain. Theor Appl Climatol 50:169–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flato GM, Boer GJ, Lee WG, McFarlane NA, Ramsden D, Reader MC, Weaver AJ (2000) The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis global coupled model at its climate. Climate Dyn 16:451–467

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Font Tullot I (1983) Climatología de España y Portugal. Instituto Nacional Meteorología, 296 pp

  • Furevik T, Bentsen M, Drange H, Kvamsto N, Sorteberg A (2003) Description and evaluation of the Bergen climate model: ARPEGE coupled with MICOM. Climate Dyn 21:27–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks HT, Gregory JM, Johns TC, Mitchell JFB, Wood RA (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics 16:147–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gordon HB et al (2002) The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model. CSIRO Atmos Res Tech Rep 60:130

    Google Scholar 

  • Gualdi S, Scoccimarro E, Navarra A (2008) Changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming: results from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. J Climate 21:5204–5228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hagemann S, Gates LD (2001) Validation of the hydrological cycle of ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses using the MPI hydrological discharge model. J Geophys Res 106:1503–1510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harrison MSJ, Palmer TN, Richardson DS, Buizza R (1999) Analysis and model dependencies in medium-range ensembles: two transplant case studies. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 125:2487–2515

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasumi H, Emori S (2004). K-1 coupled model (MIROC) description. Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokio, K-1 Tech. Rep. 1, 34 pp

  • Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Morrissey M, Bolvin DT, Curtis S, Joyce R, McGavock B, Susskind J (2001) Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multi-satellite observations. J Hydrometeor 2:36–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johns T, Durman C, Banks H, Roberts M, McLaren A, Ridley J, Sebior C, Williams K, Jones A, Keen A, Rickard G, Cusack S, Joshi M, Ringer M, Dong B, Spencer H, Hill R, Gregory J, Pardaens A, Lowe J, Bodas-Salcedo A, Stark S, Dearl Y (2004) HadGEM1-model description and analysis of preliminary experiments for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Tech. Rep, 55, UK. Met Office, Exeter, UK

  • Jungclaus JH et al (2006) Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Climate 19:3952–3972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lawson JS (1989) The wet spell in southern Spain, mid-October 1988. Weather 44:475–478

    Google Scholar 

  • Lucarini L, Russell GL (2002) Comparison of mean climate trends in the northern hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere–ocean model forced runs. J Geophys Res 107(D15):ACL7.1–ACL7.13. doi:10.1029/2001JD001247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lucarini V, Calmanti S, Della Aquila A, Ruti PM, Speranza A (2007) Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models. Climate Dynamics 28(7–8):829

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maxino CC, McAvaney BJ, Pitman AJ, Perkins SE (2007) Ranking the AR4 climate models over the Murray Darling Basin using simulated maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. Int J Climatol 28:1097–1112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marti O, Braconnot P, Bellier R et al. (2005) The new IPSL climate system model: IPSL-CM4. Note du Pole de Modelisation 26, Institute Pierre Laplace Simon, 84 pp

  • Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007a) The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1383–1394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Tebaldi C (2007b) Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to changes in temperature extremes over the United States. Geophys Res Lett 34:L19709. doi:10.1029/2007GL030948

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Millan M, Estrela MJ, Caselles V (1995) Torrential precipitation on the Spanish east coast: the role of the Mediterranean sea surface temperature. Atmos Res 36:1–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Min SK, Legutke S, Hense A, Kwon WT (2005) Internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G. Part I: near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure. Tellus 57A:605–621

    Google Scholar 

  • Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner HH, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Nieto S, Rodríguez-Puebla C (2006) Comparison of precipitation from observed data and general circulation models over the Iberian Peninsula. J Climate 19:4254–4275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reichler T, Kim J (2008) How well do coupled models simulate today’s climate? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 8:303–311. doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-3-303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodríguez-Puebla C, Encinas AH, Nieto S, Garmendía J (1998) Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula. Int J Climatol 18:299–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodríguez-Puebla C, Encinas AH, Sáenz J (2001) Winter precipitation over the Iberian peninsula and its relationships to circulation indices. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 5:233–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Russell J, Stouffer RJ, Dixon KW (2006) Intercomparison of the Southern Ocean circulations in IPCC coupled model control simulations. J Climate 19:4560–4575

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sáenz J, Zubillaga J, Rodríguez Puebla C (2001a) Interannual variability of winter precipitation in northern Iberian Peninsula. Int J Climatol 21:1503–1513

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sáenz J, Rodríguez-Puebla C, Fernández J, Zubillaga J (2001b) Interpretation of interannual winter temperature variations over Southwestern Europe. J Geophys Res 106:20641–20652

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salas-Meliá D, Chauvin F, Déqué M et al. (2005). Description and validation of the CNRM-CM3 global coupled model. CNRM, Note de Centre no. 103, 36 pp

  • Schmidt GA et al (2006) Present-day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: comparison to in-situ, satellite and reanalysis data. J Climate 19:153–192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silverman BW (1986) Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Chapman and Hall, Bristol

    Google Scholar 

  • Simmons AJ, Gibson JK (2000) The ERA-40 project Plan, ERA-40 Project Report Series No. 1, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading

  • Sturaro G (2003) A closer look at the climatological discontinuities present in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis temperature due to the introduction of satellite data. Clim Dynam 21:309–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster J, Meehl GA (2006) Going to the extremes. An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change 79(3–4):185–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Guillemot CJ (1995) Evaluation of the global atmospheric moisture budget as seen from analyses. J Climate 8:2255–2272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Guillemot CJ (1998) Evaluation of the atmospheric moisture and hydrological cycle in the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim Dynamics 14:213–231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trigo R, Palutikof J (2001) Precipitation scenarios over Iberia: a comparison between direct GCM output and different downscaling techniques. J Climate 14:4422–4446

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ulbrich U, Christoph M, Pinto JG, Corte-Real J (1999) Dependence of winter precipitation over Portugal on NAO and baroclinic wave activity. Int J Climatol 19:379–390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ulbrich U, Pinto JG, Kupfer H, Leckebusch G, Spangehl T, Reyers M (2008) Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations. Am Meteorol Soc 21:1669–1679

    Google Scholar 

  • Uppala SM, Kollberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, Da Costa BV, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, Van De Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Hólm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf JF, Morcrette JJ, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 131(612):2961–3012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vera C, Silvestri G, Liebmann B, Gonzalez P (2006) Precipitation variability in South America from IPCC-AR4 models. Part II: influence of circulation leading patterns. Proceedings of 8 ICSHMO, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, INPE, April 24–28, pp 477–485

  • Von Storch H, Zwiers FW (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Washington WM et al (2000) Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Climate Dynamics 16(10/11):755–774

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang M, Overland JE, Kattsov V, Walsh JE, Zhang X, Pavlova T (2007) Intrinsic versus forced variation in coupled climate model arctic during the twentieth century. J Climate 20:1094–1107

    Google Scholar 

  • Wild M (2008) Short-wave and long wave surface radiation budgets in GCMs: a review based on the IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 models. Tellus 60A:932–945

    Google Scholar 

  • Yin X, Gruber A, Arkin P (2004) Comparison of the GPCP and CMAP merged gauge-satellite monthly precipitation products for the period 1979–2001. J Hydrometeor 5:1207–1222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu Y, Yu R, Zhang X, Liu H (2004) Global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models in LASG/IAP. Adv Atmos Sci 19:169–190

    Google Scholar 

  • Yukimoto S et al (2006) Present-day climate and climate sensitivity in the Meteorological Research Institute coupled GCM version 2.3 (MRI-CGCM2.3). J Meteor Soc Japan 84:333–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 78:2539–2558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zolina O et al (2004) Analysis of extreme precipitation over Europe from different reanalyses: a comparative assessment. Global Planet Change 44:129–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zorita E, Kharin V, Von Storch H (1992) The atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic area in winter: their interaction and relevance for Iberian precipitation. J Climate 5:1097–1108

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful for financial support through projects CGL2008-03321/CLI, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, and EKLIMA21, funded by Euskalmet (ETORTEK projects IE08-217 and IE09-264). We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy. Finally, the authors thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments which have significantly improved this manuscript and INC Language Services for the English correction.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Nuclear Engineering and Fluids Mechanics, University of the Basque Country, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

    Inigo Errasti

  2. Department of Applied Physics II, University of the Basque Country, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

    Agustín Ezcurra

  3. Department of Applied Physics II, University of the Basque Country, Bilbao, Spain

    Jon Sáenz

  4. Department of Nuclear Engineering and Fluids Mechanics, University of the Basque Country, Bilbao, Spain

    Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi

  5. University College of Engineering, University of the Basque Country (EHU/UPV), 12 Nieves Cano, 01006, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

    Inigo Errasti

Authors
  1. Inigo Errasti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Agustín Ezcurra
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jon Sáenz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Inigo Errasti.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Errasti, I., Ezcurra, A., Sáenz, J. et al. Validation of IPCC AR4 models over the Iberian Peninsula. Theor Appl Climatol 103, 61–79 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0282-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0282-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation