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Validation of IPCC AR4 models over the Iberian Peninsula

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Abstract

This paper reports analysis of the ability of 24 coupled global climate models that were used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to simulate the current monthly seasonal cycle of sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in the last two decades of the twentieth century. The period investigated runs from 1979 to 1998. In order to assess the performance of the models, averaged seasonal cycles and probability density functions (PDFs) calculated from model simulations are compared with the corresponding seasonal cycles, whilst PDFs are also obtained using the data from the ERA40 reanalysis and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. We found that simulated PDFs generally provided a better fit to actual PDFs than seasonal cycles do. This conclusion indicates that when evaluating model performance, the climate variability as measured by means of PDFs is not the only climatic element that should be tested. Regarding the comparison based on the seasonal cycle, results also show that the root mean square skill score is more useful than the r skill score. To rank the AR4 models, sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation variables were selected and a group of five AR4 models were identified as the models which best reproduce current climate in the area: MIROC3.2-HIRES, MPI-ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.1, BCCR-BCM2.0 and UKMO-HADGEM1. The rank obtained should not be understood in a hierarchical manner because there is a certain degree of internal variability in the model ensembles. Finally, it should be noted that these results are in good agreement with other classifications found in the scientific literature.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful for financial support through projects CGL2008-03321/CLI, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, and EKLIMA21, funded by Euskalmet (ETORTEK projects IE08-217 and IE09-264). We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy. Finally, the authors thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments which have significantly improved this manuscript and INC Language Services for the English correction.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Nuclear Engineering and Fluids Mechanics, University of the Basque Country, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

    Inigo Errasti

  2. Department of Applied Physics II, University of the Basque Country, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

    Agustín Ezcurra

  3. Department of Applied Physics II, University of the Basque Country, Bilbao, Spain

    Jon Sáenz

  4. Department of Nuclear Engineering and Fluids Mechanics, University of the Basque Country, Bilbao, Spain

    Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi

  5. University College of Engineering, University of the Basque Country (EHU/UPV), 12 Nieves Cano, 01006, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

    Inigo Errasti

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  1. Inigo Errasti
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Errasti, I., Ezcurra, A., Sáenz, J. et al. Validation of IPCC AR4 models over the Iberian Peninsula. Theor Appl Climatol 103, 61–79 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0282-y

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