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Evaluation of 3D structural changes in general atmospheric and monsoon circulations during Kedarnath disaster (India), 16–17 June 2013

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Abstract

Intense rains on 16–17 June 2013 over Mandakini River catchment caused Kedarnath disaster in Uttarakhand State (India). Normal and departure-from-normal 3D global atmospheric thermal structure and general and monsoon circulations during the event have been compared using equatorially/globally- conditioned surface and upper air parameters (1000–100 hPa) (period: 1979–2013). Briefly, normal monsoon structure is: 1000‒850 hPa layer- cross-equatorial flows over Indian Ocean and Eurasian westerlies confluence over Indian domain, the two flows further confluence downstream with Pacific easterlies and then the accumulated airmasses blow northeastward; 700‒500 hPa layer- Eurasian westerlies after sweeping entire Indian subcontinent make exit northeastward; and 400‒100 hPa layer- upper tropospheric anticyclone well-developed over subtropical Asia and outflows are spread all around. On 16–17 June 2013, two upper tropospheric anticyclonic cells occurred, one over Tibet-China and another Mediterranean-Middle East. Troposphere (1000–250 hPa) was significantly warmer-and-thicker over Tibet-China followed by Mediterranean-Middle East while cooler-and-thinner over central Asia-India sector. Departures in downward slopes of tropospheric temperature and thickness from Tibet-China outward were significantly steeper. A huge trough evolved over Indo-Pacific region from an interaction between Eurasian westerlies and Indo-Pacific easterlies, and outflows from the trough made forced exit through western Himalaya which modulated north mid-high latitudes westerlies into a single wave structure. Combined five factors produced disastrous rains over Kedarnath: cool-low and warm-low regime contrast; squeezing of deep warm-moist flows; orographic lifting; and pumping and suction effects. Forced warm-moist outflows from Indo-Pacific region caused warmer-thicker troposphere over eastern Russia-North America. Lesser outflows from Tibet-China anticyclone were directed southward, consequently troposphere was cooler-thinner over southern mid-high latitudes.

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Abbreviations

AIP:

Asia-Indo-Pacific

CA-IND:

Central Asia – India

CH:

Cool-high

CL:

Cool-low

EC-mslp:

Equatorially Conditioned mean sea level pressure

EC-PW:

Equatorially Conditioned Precipitable Water

EC-Tlevel :

Equatorially Conditioned Temperature at particular level

EC-TTROP :

Equatorially Conditioned Tropospheric temperature

EC-Zlevel :

Equatorially Conditioned geopotential height at particular level

EC-ZTROP :

Equatorially Conditioned Tropospheric Thickness

EMV:

Equatorial Mean Value

EREs:

Extreme Rain Events

GC-W:

Globally Conditioned Wind Speed

GMV:

Global Mean Value

GWRs:

Global Weather Regimes

LOSSI:

Location, orientation, shape, size and intensity

MME:

Mediterranean – Middle East

NH:

Northern Hemisphere

NPL:

North Polar

NSBT:

North Subtropic

SH:

Southern Hemisphere

SPL:

South Polar

SSBT:

South Subtropic

TBT-CHN:

Tibet-China

WL:

Warm-low

WH:

Warm-high

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Acknowledgements

First author is extremely gratefully to Director, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee for necessary facilities to pursue the study, and to the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Govt. of India for sponsoring this research project.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Surface Water Hydrology Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, 247667, India

    Ranade Ashwini

  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune, Maharashtra, 411008, India

    Singh Nityanand

  3. 9, Pashan Villa, Pashan, Pune, Maharashtra, 411021, India

    Singh Nityanand

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Correspondence to Ranade Ashwini.

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Ashwini, R., Nityanand, S. Evaluation of 3D structural changes in general atmospheric and monsoon circulations during Kedarnath disaster (India), 16–17 June 2013. Meteorol Atmos Phys 133, 857–878 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00780-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00780-7