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A review on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, variability and its association with ENSO and IOD

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Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during June to September contributes most of the annual rainfall over India and plays an important role in Indian agriculture and thus the economy. It exhibits high spatio-temporal variabilities forced from both internal and external factors, which are important for better understanding and prediction of ISMR. Since the internal factors, mainly in the form of intraseasonal oscillations set a limit to the predictability, the major focus is given to the external forcing factors including the coupled air–sea interactions, sea surface temperature variations, snow cover, etc. This paper mainly aims to review the results of recent research analysis on ISMR variability and the major climate factors that determine the variability. Focus is given on the contributions from the coupled ocean–atmosphere processes in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to the ISMR variability [(primarily the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Several studies were carried out in recent decades to explore the ISMR variabilities and their influences from tropical oceans. The studies, which focused the impact of ENSO and IOD on the ISMR variability have been considered in exploring their relationships and observed changes in recent decades. In the backdrop of varying relationship of ISMR with ENSO and IOD in the regional scale, it is important to study further the regional teleconnection of ISMR variabilities with oceanic factors, especially from the Indian and Pacific Ocean basin.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune and the Principal, Sree Krishna College, Guruvayoor for the support and necessary facilities to pursue this study. The authors also acknowledge the CRU data for the rainfall analysis, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for circulation parameters and NOAA for the indices of Niño 3.4 and IOD.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, Sree Krishna College, Affiliated to University of Calicut, Guruvayoor, Kerala, India

    P. H. Hrudya & R. Vishnu

  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune, 411008, India

    Hamza Varikoden

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  1. P. H. Hrudya
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  2. Hamza Varikoden
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  3. R. Vishnu
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Correspondence to Hamza Varikoden.

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Hrudya, P.H., Varikoden, H. & Vishnu, R. A review on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, variability and its association with ENSO and IOD. Meteorol Atmos Phys 133, 1–14 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00734-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00734-5