Abstract
The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space–time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species.
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank the National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas (FAPEAM), the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), and the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior-Brasil (CAPES), and all anonymous reviewers who offered suggestions for its improvement.
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This study was funded by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES) Finance Code 001.
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Conceptualization: Geovani da Silva Santana. Methodology and validation: Geovani da Silva Santana and Ricardo Siqueira da Silva. Formal analysis: Geovani da Silva Santana and Ricardo Siqueira da Silva. Investigation: Geovani da Silva Santana. Resources: Geovani da Silva Santana. Writing—original draft preparation: Geovani da Silva Santana; Writing—review and Editing: Beatriz Ronchi-Teles, Cero Manoel dos Santos, Marcus Alvarenga Soares, Philipe Guilherme Corcino Souza, Fausto Henrique Vieira Araújo, Caio Victor Soares de Aguiar and Geovani da Silva Santana. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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da Silva Santana, G., Ronchi-Teles, B., dos Santos, C.M. et al. Climate suitability modeling for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae): current and future invasion risk analysis. Int J Biometeorol 67, 1185–1197 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02487-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02487-3