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Forecasting ragweed pollen characteristics with nonparametric regression methods over the most polluted areas in Europe

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Abstract

Nonparametric time-varying regression methods were developed to forecast daily ragweed pollen concentration, and the probability of the exceedance of a given concentration threshold 1 day ahead. Five-day and 10-day predictions of the start and end of the pollen season were also addressed with a nonparametric regression technique combining regression analysis with the method of temperature sum. Our methods were applied to three of the most polluted regions in Europe, namely Lyon (Rhône Valley, France), Legnano (Po River Plain, Italy) and Szeged (Great Plain, Hungary). For a 1-day prediction of both the daily pollen concentration and daily threshold exceedance, the order of these cities from the smallest to largest prediction errors was Legnano, Lyon, Szeged and Legnano, Szeged, Lyon, respectively. The most important predictor for each location was the pollen concentration of previous days. The second main predictor was precipitation for Lyon, and temperature for Legnano and Szeged. Wind speed should be considered for daily concentration at Legnano, and for daily pollen threshold exceedances at Lyon and Szeged. Prediction capabilities compared to the annual cycles for the start and end of the pollen season decreased from west to east. The order of the cities from the lowest to largest errors for the end of the pollen season was Lyon, Legnano, Szeged for both the 5- and 10-day predictions, while for the start of the pollen season the order was Legnano, Lyon, Szeged for 5-day predictions, and Legnano, Szeged, Lyon for 10-day predictions.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Gilles Oliver for his part in collecting the pollen data for Lyon, Miklós Juhász for providing pollen data of Szeged, and Zoltán Sümeghy for the digital mapping in Fig. 1.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of Szeged, P.O.B. 653, 6701, Szeged, Hungary

    László Makra

  2. Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter st. 1/A, 1117, Budapest, Hungary

    István Matyasovszky

  3. RNSA (Aerobiology Network of France), La Parličre, 69610, Saint Genis l’Argentière, France

    Michel Thibaudon

  4. Department of Medical Prevention, ASL (Local Health Unit) of the Province of Milan 1, Public Health Service, via Spagliardi 19, Parabiago, 20015, Milan, Italy

    Maira Bonini

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  1. László Makra
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  4. Maira Bonini
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Correspondence to László Makra.

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Makra, L., Matyasovszky, I., Thibaudon, M. et al. Forecasting ragweed pollen characteristics with nonparametric regression methods over the most polluted areas in Europe. Int J Biometeorol 55, 361–371 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0346-9

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