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Evaluating the effect of the uncertainty of CMIP6 models on extreme flows of the Caspian Hyrcanian forest watersheds using the BMA method

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of climate change on the hydrological and meteorological parameters of the Navrood Watershed (a Caspian Hyrcanian forest watershed) in the north of Iran. Outputs of seven CMIP6 GCMs (Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation) under two scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, were utilized. This study considered the historical period (1994–2014), the near future (2025–2049), the middle future (2050–2074), and the far future (2075–2099). The EDCDFm and MBA methods were used for bias correction of the outputs of GCMs and combining GCMs, respectively. The LARS-WG model was used for statistical downscaling. the runoff was calculated by the IHACRES model. Based on the results, the annual Tmin under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 will increase as much as 1.04 °C and 1.25 °C in the near future, 1.55 °C and 2.48 °C in the middle future, and 2.09 °C and 4.11 °C in the far future, respectively. The annual Tmax under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 will increase as much as 1.59 °C and 1.38 °C in the near future, 1.98 °C and 3.02 °C in the middle future, and 2.58 °C and 4.94 °C in the far future, respectively. The annual precipitation (PCP) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 will increase as much as 6.81% and 7.11% in the near future, 6.15% and 4.43% in the middle future, and 8.63% and 6.58% in the far future, respectively. Finally, the annual runoff under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 will increase as much as 16.3% and 15.4% in the near future, 14.8% and 10.6% in the middle future, and 19.2% and 15.1% in the far future, respectively.

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  1. Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

    Morteza Lotfirad, Arash Adib, Mohammad Mehdi Riyahi & Mohammad Jafarpour

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  1. Morteza Lotfirad
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Lotfirad, M., Adib, A., Riyahi, M.M. et al. Evaluating the effect of the uncertainty of CMIP6 models on extreme flows of the Caspian Hyrcanian forest watersheds using the BMA method. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 491–505 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02269-0

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