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Probabilistic risk assessment of contaminant transport in groundwater and vapour intrusion following remediation of a contaminant source

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Abstract

Community-scale simulations were performed to investigate the risk to groundwater and indoor air receptors downgradient of a contaminated site following the remediation of a long-term source. Six suites of Monte Carlo simulations were performed using a numerical model that accounted for groundwater flow, reactive solute transport, soil gas flow, and vapour intrusion in buildings. The model was applied to a three-dimensional, community-scale (250 m × 1000 m × 14 m) domain containing heterogeneous, spatially correlated distributions of the hydraulic conductivity, fraction of organic carbon, and biodegradation rate constant, which were varied between realizations. Analysis considered results from both individual realizations as well as the suite of Monte Carlo simulations expressed through several novel, integrated parameters, such as the probability of exceeding a regulatory standard in either groundwater or indoor air. Results showed that exceedance probabilities varied considerably with the consideration of biodegradation in the saturated zone, and were less sensitive to changes in the variance of hydraulic conductivity or the incorporation of heterogeneous distributions of organic carbon at this spatial scale. A sharp gradient in exceedance probability existed at the lateral edges of the plumes due to variability in lateral dispersion, which defined a narrow region of exceedance uncertainty. Differences in exceedance probability between realizations (i.e., due to heterogeneity uncertainty) were similar to differences attributed to changes in the variance of hydraulic conductivity or fraction of organic carbon. Simulated clean-up times, defined by reaching an acceptable exceedance probability, were found to be on the order of decades to centuries in these community-scale domains. Results also showed that the choice of the acceptable exceedance probability level (e.g., 1 vs. 5 %) would likely affect clean up times on the order of decades. Moreover, in the scenarios examined here, the risk of exceeding indoor air standards was greater than that of exceeding groundwater standards at all times and places. Overall, simulations of coupled transport processes combined with novel spatial and temporal quantification metrics for Monte Carlo analyses, provide practical tools for assessing risk in wider communities when considering site remediation.

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Acknowledgments

Funding for this research was provided by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Best in Science-Research Grant Project 89011. The authors would like to thank the project steering committee. We acknowledge the contributions from SHARCNET, a consortium of Canadian academic institutions who share a network of high performance computers. We also thank Christopher Power for his assistance and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, K7L 3N6, Canada

    Kevin G. Mumford

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, N6A 5B9, Canada

    Nizar Mustafa & Jason I. Gerhard

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  1. Kevin G. Mumford
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  3. Jason I. Gerhard
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Correspondence to Kevin G. Mumford.

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Mumford, K.G., Mustafa, N. & Gerhard, J.I. Probabilistic risk assessment of contaminant transport in groundwater and vapour intrusion following remediation of a contaminant source. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30, 1017–1031 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1156-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1156-8

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