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Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone

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Abstract

Reliable projections of extremes at finer spatial scales are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on societal and natural systems, particularly for elevated and cold regions in the Tibetan Plateau. This paper presents future projections of extremes of daily precipitation and temperature, under different future scenarios in the headwater catchment of Yellow River basin over the 21st century, using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicate that: (1) although the mean temperature was simulated perfectly, followed by monthly pan evaporation, the skill scores in simulating extreme indices of precipitation are inadequate; (2) The inter-annual variabilities for most extreme indices were underestimated, although the model could reproduce the extreme temperatures well. In fact, the simulation of extreme indices for precipitation and evaporation were not satisfactory in many cases. (3) In future period from 2011 to 2100, increases in the temperature and evaporation indices are projected under a range of climate scenarios, although decreasing mean and maximum precipitation are found in summer during 2020s. The findings of this work will contribute toward a better understanding of future climate changes for this unique region.

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Acknowledgments

The work was jointly supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40901016, 40830639, 40830640), a grant from the State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (2009586612, 2009585512), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2010B00714), the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities—the 111 Project of Hohai University, the Australian Endeavour Fellowship Program, and CSIRO Computational and Simulation Sciences Transformational Capability Platform. Cordial thanks are also extended to the editor, Professor George Christakos and two referees for their valuable comments which greatly improved the quality of this paper.

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Correspondence to Tao Yang.

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Wang, X., Yang, T., Shao, Q. et al. Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 26, 405–418 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0535-z

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