Abstract
Streamflow series of five hydrological stations were analyzed with aim to indicate variability of water resources in the Tarim River basin. Besides, impacts of climate changes on water resources were investigated by analyzing daily precipitation and temperature data of 23 meteorological stations covering 1960–2005. Some interesting and important results were obtained: (1) the study region is characterized by increasing temperature, however, only temperature in autumn is in significant increasing trend; (2) precipitation changes present different properties. Generally, increasing precipitation can be detected. However, only the precipitation in the Tienshan mountain area is in significant increasing trend. Annual streamflow of major rivers of the Tarim River basin are not in significant trends, except that of the Akesu River which is in significantly increasing trend. Due to the geomorphologic properties of the Tienshan mountain area, precipitation in this area demonstrates significant increasing trend and which in turn leads to increasing streamflow of the Akesu River. Due to the fact that the sources of streamflow of the rivers in the Tarim River basin are precipitation and melting glacial, both increasing precipitation and accelerating melting ice has the potential to cause increasing streamflow. These results are of practical and scientific merits in basin-scale water resource management in the arid regions in China under the changing environment.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Booij MJ (2005) Impact of climate change on river flooding assessed with different spatial model resolutions. J Hydrol 303:176–198
Bordi I, Sutera A (2001) Fifty years of precipitation: some spatially remote teleconnections. Water Resour Manag 15(4):247–280
Bosilovich MG, Schubert SD, Walker GK (2005) Global changes of the water cycle intensity. J Clim 18:1591–1608
Burn DH (2008) Climatic influences on streamflow timing in the headwaters of the Mackenzie River Basin. J Hydrol 352(1–2):225–238
Chen YN, Li WH, Chen YP, Zhang HF (2003) Water resources and ecological problems in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China. In: Wilderer PA, Zhu J, Schwarzenbeck N (eds) Water and environmental management. IWA, London, pp 3–12
Chen YN, Takeuchi K, Xu C, Chen YP, Xu ZX (2006) Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China. Hydrol Process 20:2207–2216
Chen H, Guo SL, Xu C-Y, Singh VP (2007) Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin. J Hydrol 344(3-4):171–184
Douville H (2006) Impact of regional SST anomalies on the indian monsoon response to global warming in the CNRM climate model. J Clim 19(10):2008–2024
Douville H, Salas-Mélia D, Tyteca (2006) On the tropical origin of uncertainties in the global land precipitation response to global warming. Clim Dyn 26:367–385
Feng Q, Endo KN, Cheng GD (2001) Towards sustainable development of the environmentally degraded arid rivers of China-a case study from Tarim River. Environ Geol 4:229–238
Gao G, Chen D, Xu C-Y, Simelton E (2007) Trend of estimated actual evapotranspiration over China during 1960-2002. J Geophys Res Atmos 112:D11120. doi:10.1029/2006JD008010
Hagg W, Braun LN, Kuhn M, Nesgaard TI (2007) Modelling of hydrological response to climate change in glacierized Central Asian catchments. J Hydrol 332:40–53
Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) (2001) Climate Change 2001: the scientific basis, third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin, London
Khaled HH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204(1–4):182–196
Labat D, Goddéris Y, Probst JL, Guyot JL (2004) Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Adv Water Resour 27:631–642
Liu SY, Ding YJ, Shangguan DH (2006) Glacier retreat as a result of climate warming and increased precipitation in the Tarim River Basin, northwest China. Ann Glaciol 43:91–96
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259
Menzel L, Bürger G (2002) Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany). J Hydrol 267:53–64
Mitchell JM, Dzerdzeevskii B, Flohn H, Hofmeyr WL, Lamb HH, Rao KN, Wallén CC (1966) Climate change, WMO Technical Note No. 79, World Meteorological Organization, pp 79
Shi YF, Shen YP, Li DL (2003) Transition from warm and dry climate to warm and humid climate in the north west China. Meteorological Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
Shi YF, Liu SY, ShangGuan DH (2006) Two peculiar phenomena of climatic and glacial variations in the Tibetan Plateau. Adv Clim Change Res (in Chinese) 2(4):154–160
Song YD, Wang RH, Peng YS (2002) Water resources and ecological conditions in the Tarim. Sci China (Ser D) 45:11–17
Tao H, Marco G, Song YD, Su BD, Jiang T (2008) Eco-hydrological responses on water division in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, China. Water Resour Res 44:W08422. doi:10.1029/2007WR006186
Xu C-Y, Singh VP (2004) Review on regional water resources assessment models under stationary and changing climate. Water Resour Manag 18:591–612
Xu Z, Chen Y, Li J (2004) Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tarim River basin. Water Resour Manag 18:439–458
Xu C-Y, Gong L, Jiang T, Chen D, Singh VP (2006) Analysis of spatial distribution and temporal trend of reference evapotranspiration in Changjiang (Yangtze River) catchment. J Hydrol 327:81–93
Ye M, Xu HL, Song YD (2006) Water resource and associate changing trends of the Tarim River basin. Chinese Sci Bull 51:14–20 (in Chinese)
Yue S, Wang CY (2002) Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann–Kendall test. Water Resour Res 38(6):1068. doi:10.1029/2001WR000861
Yue S, Wang CY (2004) The Mann–Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18:201–218
Zhang Q, Xu C-Y, Zhang Z, Chen YD, Liu C-L (2008a) Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960–2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation. J Hydrol 353:215–227
Zhang Q, Xu C-Y, Gemmer M, Chen YD, Liu C-L (2008b) Changing properties of precipitation concentration in the Pearl River basin, China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 23(3):377–385
Zhang Q, Xu C-Y, Zhang Z, Chen YD (2008c) Changes of temperature extremes for 1960–2004 in Far-West China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess. doi:10.1007/s00477-008-0252-4
Acknowledgments
The work described in this paper was financially supported by the ‘985 Project’ (Grant No.: 37000-3171315), the innovative project from Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS (Grant No.: CXNIGLAS200814), National Scientific and Technological Support Program (Grant No.: 2007BAC03A0604), Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS (Grant No.: 05710401), and by Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities—the 111 Project of Hohai University. Cordial thanks should be extended to the editor-in-chief, Prof. Dr. George Christakos and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions and comments which greatly helped to improve the quality of this paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, Q., Xu, CY., Tao, H. et al. Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 24, 349–358 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-009-0324-0
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-009-0324-0