Abstract
Purpose
Due to prolonged survival, there will be many more chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients alive in the future. The aims of this work were to estimate the current prevalence of CML by using routine data and to project future patient numbers in Germany.
Methods
Data were available for about 10.5 million people in the statutory health insurance system in Bavaria for the years 2008–2013. Survival rates were adapted from two recent publications.
Results
The mean estimated age-standardized (Old European Standard Population) incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants were 1.300 and 1.768 for women and men. Based on the population data, we estimated a total number of about 9000 CML patients in Germany for 2012. We expect the number of CML patients to increase further until at least 2040–2050 with a maximum of more than 20,000 CML patients as the most probable scenario.
Conclusions
Using a restrictive definition for case patients, we do not think that there is much overestimation. As a consequence of this considerable increase of the prevalence of CML the burden for the health care system will increase with respect to costs and medical care needed. The procedure presented here allows to estimate the expected number of CML patients in other countries, too.
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Acknowledgments
We would like to thank Carina Fink, Christina Niedermeier, Annett Schmitt and Andrea Stüven for their valuable help.
Author contributions
ML designed the research, checked, analyzed and interpreted the data, and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. RG provided, processed, and interpreted the data. MT provided, processed, and interpreted the data. JH analyzed and interpreted the data and designed the research. All authors contributed to the manuscript and approved the final version.
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Michael Lauseker, Roman Gerlach, Martin Tauscher, and Joerg Hasford declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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Lauseker, M., Gerlach, R., Tauscher, M. et al. Improved survival boosts the prevalence of chronic myeloid leukemia: predictions from a population-based study. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol 142, 1441–1447 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-016-2155-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-016-2155-y