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Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict recovery following intracerebral hemorrhage

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Abstract

Context

While several models have been developed to predict mortality following intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), the functional outcome and its predictors in surviving patients have been poorly investigated so far.

Objectives

To identify predictors and validate a prognostic model for independent functional outcome in patients with acute ICH.

Design

An inception cohort was assessed on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIH–SS) at admission and followed–up after 100 days.

Setting

11 neurological departments with an acute stroke unit.

Patients

207 consecutive patients who were neither comatose nor intubated at admission within 6 hours after ICH and with complete follow–up.

Results

After 100 days, 40 patients (19.3 %) had died, 78 (37.7%) had regained functional independence (Barthel Index ≥ 95) and 89 (43%) had survived but not recovered. In these patients, age and the NIH–SS total score were identified as independent predictors for functional independence after 100 days. With the predefined cut–off value, the prognosis of 79.8% of all patients could be predicted accurately upon validation in an independent data set of 173 non–comatose patients with acute ICH.

Conclusion

Our study provides a validated prognostic model for prediction of complete recovery following ICH which could be very useful for the design of clinical studies.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Neurology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Hufelandstr. 55, 45122, Essen, Germany

    Ch. Weimar MD, J. Benemann PhD & H.-Ch. Diener MD

  2. Department of Neurology, Universitätskliniken des Saarlandes, 66421, Homburg-Saar, Germany

    M. Roth MD & P. Kostopoulos MD

  3. Department of Neurology, University of Jena, Philosophenweg 3, 07743, Jena, Germany

    V. Willig MD

Authors
  1. Ch. Weimar MD
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  2. M. Roth MD
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  3. V. Willig MD
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  4. P. Kostopoulos MD
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  5. J. Benemann PhD
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  6. H.-Ch. Diener MD
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Consortia

for the German Stroke Study Collaboration

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ch. Weimar MD.

Additional information

Collaborators of the German Stroke Study Collaboration

Neurology departments (responsible for study investigators):

Krankenanstalten Gilead Bielefeld (C.Hagemeister, MD), Rheinische Kliniken Bonn (C. Kley, MD), University of Saarland (P. Kostopoulos, MD), University of Jena (V. Willig, MD), University of Magdeburg (M. Goertler, MD), Klinikum Minden (J. Glahn, MD), Städtisches Krankenhaus München Harlaching (K. Aulich, MD), University of Rostock (A. Kloth, MD), Bürgerhospital Stuttgart (T.Mieck, MD), University of Ulm (M. Riepe, MD), University of Essen (V. Zegarac, MD)

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Weimar, C., Roth, M., Willig, V. et al. Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict recovery following intracerebral hemorrhage. J Neurol 253, 788–793 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00415-006-0119-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00415-006-0119-x

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