Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Possible selection effects for radiation risk estimates in Japanese A-bomb survivors: reanalysis of acute radiation symptoms data

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Radiation and Environmental Biophysics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

An earlier analysis examined the possibility of bias in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort by studying Japanese A-bomb survivors with bomb-related acute injuries and those without such injuries (Stewart and Kneale in Int J Epidemiol 29:708–714, 2000). The authors reported significantly higher radiation risks, both for cancers and non-cancers, among those survivors with acute injuries compared with those without. The risks were reported to be particularly large among survivors aged <10 or ≥55 years of age at the time of bombings. The aim of this paper is to examine these findings more closely using the LSS acute effects data. All the analyses were carried out using Poisson regression. Relative risk models were fitted with adjustment for sex and other factors. Significant differences in relative risk between survivors with epilation and burns and those without epilation and burns are found for leukaemia. There is also some evidence for heterogeneity in the leukaemia risk between survivors with two or more acute injuries and those with no injuries, but the evidence is disappeared when survivors with one or more injuries are compared with those without injuries. For solid cancers, cardiovascular disease and all deaths combined, the risks do not differ to a statistically significant extent between survivors with and without injuries. There is no statistically significant heterogeneity in risk across age-at-exposure categories for survivors with injuries. For all deaths combined, relative risk estimates and their uncertainties are significantly higher for survivors exposed at ages <10 years when compared with other exposure ages, but risks are not significantly raised for survivors exposed at ≥55 years of age. With the exception of leukaemia, the findings from the present work are inconsistent with those of Stewart and Kneale.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Pierce DA, Preston DL (2000) Radiation-related cancer risks at low doses among atomic bomb survivors. Radiat Res 154:178–186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Preston DL, Kusumi S, Tomonaga M, Izumi S, Ron E, Kuramoto A, Kamada N, Dohy H, Matsui T, Nonaka H, Thompson DE, Soda M, Mabuchi K (1994) Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors. Part III. Leukemia, lymphoma and multiple myeloma, 1950–1987. Radiat Res 137:S68–S97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Preston DL, Pierce DA, Shimizu Y, Cullings HM, Fujita S, Funamoto S, Kodama K (2004) Effect of recent changes in atomic bomb survivor dosimetry on cancer mortality risk estimates. Radiat Res 162:377–389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Preston DL, Shimizu Y, Pierce DA, Suyama A, Mabuchi K (2003) Studies of mortality of atomic bomb survivors. Report 13: Solid cancer and non-cancer disease mortality: 1950–1997. Radiat Res 160:381–407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Gilbert ES, Ohara JL (1984) An analysis of various aspects of atomic bomb dose estimation at RERF using data on acute radiation symptoms. Radiat Res 100:124–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Neriishi K, Stram DO, Vaeth M, Mizuno S, Akiba S (199) The observed relationship between the occurrence of acute radiation effects and leukemia mortality among A-bomb survivors. Radiat Res 125:206–213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Stewart AM, Kneale GW (2000) A-bomb survivors: factors that may lead to a re-assessment of the radiation hazard. Int J Epidemiol 29:708–714

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Little MP (2002) Absence of evidence for differences in the dose–response for cancer and non-cancer endpoints by acute injury status in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors. Int J Radiat Biol 78:1001–1010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Shimizu Y, Kato H, Schull WJ, Hoel DG (1992) Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors. 9. Mortality, 1950–1985: Part 3. Noncancer mortality based on the revised doses (DS86). Radiat Res 130:249–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Thompson DE, Mabuchi K, Ron E, Soda M, Tokunaga M, Ochikubo S, Sugimoto S, Ikeda T, Terasaki M, Izumi S, Preston DL (1994) Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors, Part II: solid tumours, 1958–1998. Radiat Res 137:S17-S67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Preston DL, Lubin JA, Pierce DA, McConney ME (1993) Epicure user’s guide

  12. UNSCEAR (1994) United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic radiation. Sources and Effects of Ionising radiation. United Nations, New York

  13. UNSCEAR (2000) United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. Sources and Effects of Ionising Radiation. United Nations, New York

  14. Pierce DA, Shimizu Y, Preston DL, Vaeth M, Mabuchi K (1996) Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors. Report 12, Part I. Cancer: 1950–1990. Radiat Res 146:1–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Shimizu Y, Kato H, Schull WJ, Preston DL, Fujita S, Pierce DA (1989) Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors. 9. Mortality, 1950–1985: Part 1. Comparison of risk coefficients for site-specific cancer mortality based on the DS86 and T65DR shielded kerma and organ doses. Radiat Res 118:502–524

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Stewart AM (1997) A-bomb data: detection of bias in the Life Span Study cohort. Environ Health Perspect 105:1519–1521

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Stewart AM, Kneale GW (1999) A-bomb survivors: reassessment of the radiation hazard. Med Confl Surviv 15(1):47–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Little MP (2001) Comparison of the risks of cancer incidence and mortality following radiation therapy for benign and malignant disease with the cancer risks observed in the Japanese A-bomb survivors. Int J Radiat Biol 77:431–464

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Little MP, Hawkins MM, Charles MW and Hilderth NG (1992) Fitting the Armitage_Doll model to radiation-exposed cohorts and implications for population risks. Radiat Res 132: 207–221, and 137:124–128

    Google Scholar 

  20. Little MP (1995) Are two mutations sufficient to cause cancer? Some generalisations of the two-mutation model of carcinogenesis of Moolgavkar, Venzon, and Knudson, and of the multistage model of Armitage and Doll. Biometrics 51:1278–1291

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  21. Little MP and Muirhead CR (1997) Curvilinearity in the dose response curve for cancer in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Environ Health Perspect 105(suppl 6):1505–1509

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Pierce DA, Stram DO and Vaeth M (1990) Allowing for random errors in radiation dose estimates for the atomic bomb survivor data. Radiat Res 123:275–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Dr Dale Preston (formerly of RERF) and the reviewers for their helpful comments. We wish in particular to thank one of the reviewers for resolving a discrepancy between the data used in this paper and those described by Stewart and Kneale. This report makes use of data obtained from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF), Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. RERF is a private, non-profit foundation funded by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and the U.S. Department of Energy, the latter through the National Academy of Sciences. The conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the scientific judgment of RERF or its funding agencies or of the authors’ employers. The European Commission provided partial funding for this analysis under contract FIGD-CT-2000-0079 (part of Framework Programme 5 of the Euratom Research and Training Programme in the Field of Nuclear Energy (1998–2002))

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Radiation Protection Division, Health Protection Agency, Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK

    Nezahat Hunter, Colin R. Muirhead & Wei Zhang

Authors
  1. Nezahat Hunter
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Colin R. Muirhead
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wei Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nezahat Hunter.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hunter, N., Muirhead, C.R. & Zhang, W. Possible selection effects for radiation risk estimates in Japanese A-bomb survivors: reanalysis of acute radiation symptoms data. Radiat Environ Biophys 45, 17–26 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-006-0040-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-006-0040-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation