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Reinspecting two types of El Niño: a new pair of Niño indices for improving real-time ENSO monitoring

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Abstract

This study reinspects the dominant modes of different types of El Niño from the perspectives of monthly mean and seasonality using a combined technique referred as RC-REOF. Several features have been revealed. (1) The explained variances of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and central Pacific (CP) El Niño are comparable, in the ranges of 33–43 and 23–28 %, respectively. (2) This feature is more in line with the frequent occurrence of CP El Niño compared to the result from orthogonal EOF analysis in which El Niño Modoki explains a smaller variance of 11–12 %. (3) Both special patterns of EP El Niño and CP El Niño are of equatorial asymmetry that is often overlooked previously by the traditional Niño indices. Based on the features captured by the two leading RC-REOF modes, the authors propose a new pair of Niño indices referred to as Niño3b and Niño4b that have the following advantages: (1) simple calculation, (2) robust and stable relationship with the EP/CP El Niño modes, (3) more representative for Pacific decadal signals, (4) easier to distinguish ENSO types, and (5) without restriction by orthogonality, and others. The Niño3b and Niño4b indices are potentially useful for both scientific research and real-time monitoring of the two types of El Niño. Besides, an index namely Niño3.4b is also introduced to describe the hybrid ENSO events, with relatively equal covariance to EP El Niño and CP El Niño and with larger covariance at decadal time scale than index Niño3.4.

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Acknowledgments

The study was supported by the National Key Scientific Research Plan of China (Grants 2012CB956002 and 2014CB953900), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41375076 and 41375081), the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Grant 201206038), the LASW State Key Laboratory Special Fund (2013LASW-A05), and the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change. Calculations for this study were supported by the China National Supercomputer Center in Guangzhou.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Xianlin Campus, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

    Chundi Hu & Qigang Wu

  2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou, 510275, Guangdong, China

    Song Yang, Tuantan Zhang, Yana Li, Kaiqiang Deng, Teng Wang & Junwen Chen

  3. Institute of Earth Climate and Environment System, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China

    Chundi Hu, Song Yang, Tuantan Zhang, Chengyang Zhang, Yana Li, Kaiqiang Deng, Teng Wang & Junwen Chen

  4. Climate Center, Guangxi Meteorological Bureau, Nanning, Guangxi, China

    Chengyang Zhang

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  1. Chundi Hu
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Hu, C., Yang, S., Wu, Q. et al. Reinspecting two types of El Niño: a new pair of Niño indices for improving real-time ENSO monitoring. Clim Dyn 47, 4031–4049 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3059-x

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