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Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the midst of decadal variability

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Abstract

Long-term climate change and decadal variability in the Mediterranean region during 1860–2100 are investigated based on observational data and the newly available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments. Observational records show that decadal variability and a general tendency for annual-mean conditions to be warmer and drier have characterized the Mediterranean during 1860–2005. Consistency with CMIP5 model simulations including greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as anthropogenic aerosols and natural forcings, suggest that forced changes have characterized aspects of Mediterranean climate during this period. Future GHG-forced change will take place in the midst of decadal variability, both internal and forced, as it has occurred in the past. However, future rates of forced warming and drying over the Mediterranean are projected to be higher than in the past century. The degree to which forced change and internal variability will matter depends on the climatic quantity being considered. For surface air temperature and Mediterranean Sea annual-mean evaporation and surface freshwater fluxes, variability and forced change have become comparable and the forced signal has already emerged from internal variability. For quantities with large internal variability and relatively small forced signal such as precipitation, forced change will emerge later on in the twenty-first century over selected regions and seasons. Regardless, the probability distribution of future precipitation anomalies is progressively shifting towards drier conditions. Overall, results highlight that both mean projected forced change and the variability that will accompany forced mean change should be considered in the development of future climate outlooks.

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Notes

  1. “Forced” variability of the Earth system here is defined as variability that results from changes in the radiative forcing of the Earth. These changes may be of anthropogenic origin such as those due to GHG, aerosol emissions and land-use changes with associated variability referred to as “anthropogenically forced”; or of natural origin, such as volcanic aerosols or changes in the Earth’s orbit with variability referred to as “naturally forced”. “Internal variability” of the Earth system instead results exclusively from the interactions among its components. “Natural variability” may be “forced” by natural factors (e.g. volcanic eruptions) or of “internal” origin.

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Acknowledgments

This manuscript has been greatly improved thanks to the careful review and insightful comments of the anonymous reviewers that the authors gratefully acknowledge. Research was partly supported by NOAA grant NA10OAR4310208. This work is a contribution to the HyMeX programme (http://www.hymex.org/). The authors wish to thank the modeling centers that provided data for CMIP5 and PCMDI for making the data available. The authors wish to thank Herve Douville for providing the CNRM land data. All other data providers are thankfully acknowledged.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. OAR/Climate Program Office, NOAA, 1315 EastWest HWY, Silver Spring, MD, 20910, USA

    Annarita Mariotti

  2. University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    Yutong Pan & Ning Zeng

  3. ENEA, Rome, Italy

    Andrea Alessandri

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  1. Annarita Mariotti
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  2. Yutong Pan
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Correspondence to Annarita Mariotti.

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Mariotti, A., Pan, Y., Zeng, N. et al. Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the midst of decadal variability. Clim Dyn 44, 1437–1456 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2487-3

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