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Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation

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Abstract

The effect of climate change on the Brewer–Dobson circulation and, in particular, the large-scale seasonal-mean transport between the troposphere and stratosphere is compared in a number of middle atmosphere general circulation models. All the models reproduce the observed upwelling across the tropical tropopause balanced by downwelling in the extra tropics, though the seasonal cycle in upwelling in some models is more semi-annual than annual. All the models also consistently predict an increase in the mass exchange rate in response to growing greenhouse gas concentrations, irrespective of whether or not the model includes interactive ozone chemistry. The mean trend is 11 kt s−1 year−1 or about 2% per decade but varies considerably between models. In all but one of the models the increase in mass exchange occurs throughout the year though, generally, the trend is larger during the boreal winter. On average, more than 60% of the mean mass fluxes can be explained by the EP-flux divergence using the downward control principle. Trends in the annual mean mass fluxes derived from the EP-flux divergence also explain about 60% of the trend in the troposphere-to-stratosphere mass exchange rate when averaged over all the models. Apart from two models the interannual variability in the downward control derived and actual mass fluxes were generally well correlated, for the annual mean.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Kunihiko Kodera and Steven Pawson for agreeing to include this study in the GRIPS as a level 4 task. Discussions with Steven Hardiman, Peter Haynes, and Ted Shepherd were very much appreciated. The IGCM simulations were performed with support by the NERC Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere Thematic Programme (GST022385 and NER/T/S/2002/00058). The UM64L and UM64Lchem simulations were funded by the EU as part of the EuroSPICE project.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK

    N. Butchart

  2. Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK

    A. A. Scaife

  3. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK

    M. Bourqui & S. H. E. Hare

  4. McGill University, Montreal, Canada

    M. Bourqui & J. de Grandpré

  5. Rutherford Laboratory, British Atmospheric Data Centre, Didcot, UK

    J. Kettleborough

  6. Freie Universität of Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    U. Langematz

  7. National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology, Bologna, Italy

    E. Manzini

  8. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    F. Sassi

  9. Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

    K. Shibata

  10. NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA

    D. Shindell

  11. University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada

    M. Sigmond

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  1. N. Butchart
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Correspondence to N. Butchart.

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Butchart, N., Scaife, A.A., Bourqui, M. et al. Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Clim Dyn 27, 727–741 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4

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