Abstract
In 2023, the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850. Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society. We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature (GMST) in 2023 and found that the globe, the land, and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming, which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history. Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41°C ± 0.07°C, which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850, and is approaching the 1.5°C global warming threshold. Compared to 2022, the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24°C, with 88% of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño. Moreover, the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise. As a result, the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15°C ± 0.07°C, with only a 0.02°C increment, if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.
摘要
前所未有的破纪录最暖季节连续出现, 极大程度地增加了2023年成为历史最热年的概率, 这引发了全球各界对2023年全球表面温度(GMST)到底会有多高、 为何会出现如此迅速增温等问题的关注. 为量化2023年全球增暖程度并厘清2023年GMST爆发式增长中自然变率和全球变暖的相对贡献, 本报告依据大气所GMST统计集合预测模型2023年11月起报的结果, 预测2023年GMST将达1.41°C±0.07°C, 相较于2022年GMST增长0.24°C, 将超过2016年成为有记录以来最热的年份, 并逼近《巴黎协定》中制定的气候变化增温1.5°C控制目标. 报告进一步利用尺度分离的方法探究了2023年GMST急剧升温的原因, 发现2023年比2022年GMST年增量中88%由与强厄尔尼诺事件激发的年际尺度分量贡献, 同时大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)正位相也提供了重要的年代际尺度偏暖背景. 包括El Niño、 AMO、 极地海冰减少和北太平洋暖斑爆发在内的自然变率共同助推了此次GMST的爆发式增长. 在剔除自然变率的作用后, 如果仅考虑全球变暖长期趋势的影响, 2023年GMST预计为1.15°C±0.07°C, 相对于2022年仅增长0.02°C, 并不能够打破历史记录成为最暖年, 同时较1.5°C阈值尚有较大空间. 但由于全球变暖长期趋势在可预见的未来仍将逐年增加, 叠加自然变率的影响后, GMST将更加容易达到破纪录的温度并长期突破1.5°C阈值, 并有可能导致气候系统的不可逆转折点出现、 对人类生产生活造成严重影响, 因此, 达成减碳目标、 减缓人为影响的气候变暖仍然刻不容缓.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. ZDBS-LY-DQC010), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42175045).
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Li, K., Zheng, F., Zhu, J. et al. El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of Warming in the Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2023. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 1017–1022 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3371-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3371-4