Abstract
Coral reef ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change. The Amami Islands in Southern Japan were selected as the study area. It is important to select areas that should be given priority for conservation and subsequently direct resources there. The objective of this study was to identify locations with low bleaching potential against future increases in water temperature, as well as high larval recruitment from other areas and high larval supply capacity to other areas based on connectivity. We simulated the coral bleaching rate and larval connectivity under historical (2000s) and future (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the 2090s) climate conditions using a high-resolution (1/30° × 1/50°) future ocean regional projection dataset. From the model simulation, coral bleaching did not occur in most areas in the 2000s. However, the bleaching frequency would increase significantly under RCP8.5 in the 2090s, and it is projected that mass coral bleaching events will occur in more than half of the years of that decade. Larval dispersion simulation shows that some particles released from the Amami Islands remain in the same area. However, fluctuations in both the sink strength and the source strength among the islands were larger than those within each island, and differences in connectivity between scenarios were not apparent. Grid cells that have a low bleaching rate and high potential for a larval sink and source under each scenario were selected. Since our results can identify priority conservation areas, it is important to conduct conservation and/or adaptation strategies according to the specific characteristics of each island.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abe H, Kumagai NH, Yamano H, Kuramoto Y (2021a) Coupling high-resolution coral bleaching modeling with management practices to identify areas for conservation in a warming climate: Keramashoto National Park (Okinawa Prefecture, Japan). Sci Total Environ 790:148094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148094
Abe H, Suzuki H, Kitano YF, Kumagai NH, Mitsui S, Yamano H (2021b) Climate-induced species range shift and local adaptation strategies in a temperate marine protected area, Ashizuri-Uwakai National Park, Shikoku Island, western Japan. Ocean Coast Manag 210:105744. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105744
Abe H, Mitsui S, Yamano H (2022) Conservation of the coral community and local stakeholders’ perceptions of climate change impacts: Examples and gap analysis in three Japanese national parks. Ocean Coast Manag 218:106042. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106042
Ainsworth TD, Heron SF, Ortiz JC, Mumby PJ, Grech A, Ogawa D, Eakin CM, Leggat W (2016) Climate change disables coral bleaching protection on the Great Barrier Reef. Science 352:338–342. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac7125
Assist J, Tyberghein L, Bosch S, Verbruggen H, Serrão EA, De Clerck O (2018) Bio-ORACLE v2.0: Extending marine data layers for bioclimatic modelling. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 27:277–284. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12693
Bartley R, Bainbridge ZT, Lewis SE, Kroon FJ, Wilkinson SN, Brodie JE, Silburn DM (2014) Relating sediment impacts on coral reefs to watershed sources, processes and management: A review. Sci Tot Environ 468–469:1138–1153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.09.030
Baums IB, Paris CB, Chérubin LM (2006) A bio-oceanographic filter to larval dispersal in a reef-building coral. Limnol Oceanogr 51:1969–1981. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2006.51.5.1969
Berkelmans R, De’ath G, Kininmonth S, Skirving WJ (2004) A comparison of the 1998 and 2002 coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef: spatial correlation, patterns, and predictions. Coral Reefs 23:74–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-003-0353-y
Botsford LW, White JW, Coffroth MA, Paris CB, Planes S, Shearer TL, Thorrold SR, Jones GP (2009) Connectivity and resilience of coral reef metapopulations in marine protected areas: matching empirical efforts to predictive needs. Coral Reefs 28:327–337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-009-0466-z
Chérubin LM, Kuchinke CP, Paris CB (2008) Ocean circulation and terrestrial runoff dynamics in the Mesoamerican region from spectral optimization of SeaWiFS data and a high resolution simulation. Coral Reefs 27:503–519. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-007-0348-1
Connolly SR, Baird AH (2010) Estimating dispersal potential for marine larvae: dynamic models applied to scleractinian corals. Ecology 91:3572–3583. https://doi.org/10.1890/10-0143.1
Costello MJ, Ballantine B (2015) Biodiversity conservation should focus on no-take Marine Reserves: 94% of Marine Protected Areas allow fishing. Trends Ecol Evol 30:507–509. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2015.06.011
Dixon AM, Forster PM, Heron SF, Stoner AMK, Beger M (2022) Future loss of local-scale thermal refugia in coral reef ecosystems. PLOS Clim 1:e0000004. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004
Donner SD, Skirving WJ, Little CM, Oppenheimer M, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2005) Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Glob Change Biol 11:2251–2265. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01073.x
Figueiredo J, Baird AH, Harii S, Connolly SR (2014) Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming. Nat Clim Chang 4:498–502. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2210
Freeman LA, Kleypas JA, Miller AJ (2013) Coral reef habitat response to climate change scenarios. PLoS ONE 8:e82404. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0082404
Graham EM, Baird AH, Willis BL, Connolly SR (2013) Effects of delayed settlement on post-settlement growth and survival of scleractinian coral larvae. Oecologia 173:431–438. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-013-2635-6
Guadayol Ò, Silbiger NJ, Donahue MJ, Thomas FIM (2014) Patterns in temporal variability of temperature, oxygen and pH along an environmental gradient in a coral reef. PLoS ONE 9:e85213. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0085213
Hargreaves-Allen V, Mourato S, Milner-Gulland EJ (2011) A global evaluation of coral reef management performance: Are MPAs producing conservation and socio-economic improvements? Environ Manage 47:684–700. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-011-9616-5
Heron SF, Liu G, Rauenzahn JL, Christensen TRL, Skirving WJ, Burgess TFR, Eakin CM, Morgan JA (2014) Improvements to and continuity of operational global thermal stress monitoring for coral bleaching. J Operational Oceanogr 7:3–11. https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2014.11020154
Heyward AJ, Negri AP (2010) Plasticity of larval pre-competency in response to temperature: observations on multiple broadcast spawning coral species. Coral Reefs 29:631–636. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-009-0578-5
Hongo C, Yamano H (2013) Species-specific responses of corals to bleaching events on anthropogenically turbid reefs on Okinawa Island, Japan, over a 15-year period (1995–2009). PLoS ONE 8:e60952. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060952
JPL MUR MEaSUREs Project (2015) GHRSST level 4 MUR global foundation sea surface temperature analysis (v4.1). https://doi.org/10.5067/GHGMR-4FJ04. Accessed 21 Oct 2020
Kawabe M (1995) Variations of current path, velocity, and volume transport of the Kuroshio in relation with the large meander. J Phys Oceanogr 25:3103–3311. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025%3c3103:VOCPVA%3e2.0.CO;2
Kubo T, Tsuge T, Abe H, Yamano H (2019) Understanding island residents’ anxiety about impacts caused by climate change using Best-Worst Scaling: a case study of Amami islands, Japan. Sustain Sci 14:131–138. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0640-8
Kumagai NH, Yamano H, Committee Sango-Map-Project (2018) High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management. PeerJ 6:e4382. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4382
Lenihan HS, Adjeroud M, Kotchen MJ, Hench JL, Nakamura T (2008) Reef structure regulates small-scale spatial variation in coral bleaching. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 370:127–141. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps07622
Logan CA, Dunne JP, Eakin CM, Donner SD (2014) Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching. Glob Change Biol 20:125–139. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12390
Magris RA, Pressey RL, Weeks R, Ban NC (2014) Integrating connectivity and climate change into marine conservation planning. Biol Conser 170:207–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2013.12.032
Magris RA, Andrello M, Pressey RL, Mouillot D, Dalongeville A, Jacobi MN, Manel S (2018) Biologically representative and well-connected marine reserves enhance biodiversity persistence in conservation planning. Conserv Lett 11:e12439. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12439
McClanahan TR, Ateweberhan M, Muhando CA, Maina J, Mohammed MS (2007) Effects of climate and seawater temperature variation on coral bleaching and mortality. Ecol Monogr 77:503–525. https://doi.org/10.1890/06-1182.1
Miller K, Mundy C (2003) Rapid settlement in broadcast spawning corals: implications for larval dispersal. Coral Reefs 22:99–106. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-003-0290-9
Mitsui S, Kubo T, Shoji Y (2020) Understanding residents’ perceptions of nature and local economic activities using an open-ended question before protected area designation in Amami Islands. Japan J Nat Conserv 56:125857. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2020.125857
Mumby PJ, Steneck RS (2008) Coral reef management and conservation in light of rapidly evolving ecological paradigms. Trends Ecol Evol 23:555–563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2008.06.011
Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Barnett DN, Jones GS, Webb MJ, Collins M, Stainforth DA (2004) Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430:768–772. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02771
Naha Nature Conservation Office, Kyushu Regional Environmental Office, Ministry of the Environment, Japan (2018) Report on the coral reef monitoring survey in Kerama Islands National Park in the fiscal 2017 (in Japanese)
Naha Nature Conservation Office, Kyushu Regional Environmental Office, Ministry of the Environment, Japan (2019) Report on the coral reef monitoring survey in Kerama Islands National Park in the fiscal 2018 (in Japanese)
Nakabayashi A, Yamakita T, Nakamura T, Aizawa H, Kitano YF, Iguchi A, Yamano H, Nagai S, Agostini S, Teshima KM, Yasuda N (2019) The potential role of temperate Japanese regions as refugia for the coral Acropora hyacinthus in the face of climate change. Sci Rep 9:1892. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38333-5
Nakai T, Oki K (2004) Amami Archipelago. In: The Japanese Coral Reef Society, Ministry of the Environment (eds) Coral Reefs of Japan. Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo, pp 171–174
Nakamura T, van Woesik R (2001) Water-flow rates and passive diffusion partially explain differential survival of corals during the 1998 bleaching event. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 212:301–304. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps212301
Nakashiki N, Tsubono T, Maruyama K (2005) Impact of global warming on the ocean environment around Japan. Bull Coast Oceanogr 42:103–109. https://doi.org/10.32142/engankaiyo.42.2_103 (in Japanese with English abstract)
Nishikawa A, Katoh M, Sakai K (2003) Larval settlement rates and gene flow of broadcast-spawning (Acropora tenuis) and planula-brooding (Stylophora pistillata) corals. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 256:87–97. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps256087
Nishikawa S, Wakamatsu T, Ishizaki H, Sakamoto K, Tanaka Y, Tsujino H, Yamanaka G, Kamachi M, Ishikawa Y (2021) Development of high-resolution future ocean regional projection datasets for coastal applications in Japan. Prog Earth Planet Sci 8:7. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00399-z
Otani Y, Nakanishi Y (2019) Stable isotope study on nitrogen and sulfur impact to coral ecosystem of Yoron, Japan. Tropics 28:13–21. https://doi.org/10.3759/tropics.MS18-04
Palumbi SR (2003) Population genetics, demographic connectivity, and the design of marine reserves. Ecol Appl 13:S146–S158. https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(2003)013[0146:PGDCAT]2.0.CO;2
Raimondi PT, Morse ANC (2000) The consequences of complex larval behavior in a coral. Ecology 81:3193–3211. https://doi.org/10.2307/177410
Risk MJ (2014) Assessing the effects of sediments and nutrients on coral reefs. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 7:108–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2014.01.003
Roberts CM, O’Leary BC, McCauley DJ, Cury PM, Duarte CM, Lubchenco J, Pauly D, Sáenz-Arroyo A, Sumaila UR, Wilson RW, Worm B, Castilla JC (2017) Marine reserves can mitigate and promote adaptation to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 114:6167–6175. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701262114
Rossi V, Ser-Giacomi E, López C, Hernández-García E (2014) Hydrodynamic provinces and oceanic connectivity from a transport network help designing marine reserves. Geophys Res Lett 41:2883–2891. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059540
Sakai Y, Kato K, Koyama H, Kuba A, Takahashi H, Fujimori T, Hatta M, Negri AP, Baird AH, Ueno N (2020) A step-down photophobic response in coral larvae: implications for the light-dependent distribution of the common reef coral, Acropora Tenuis. Sci Rep 10:17680. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-74649-x
Sakamoto TT, Hasumi H, Ishii M, Emori S, Suzuki T, Nishimura T, Sumi A (2005) Responses of the Kuroshio and the Kuroshio Extension to global warming in a high-resolution climate model. Geophys Res Lett 32:L14617. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023384
Sakuno Y, Oki K (2015) Relationship between turbid water and coral damage distribution using ALOS AVNIR-2 images and diving survey data immediately after the heavy rain disaster of the Amami-Oshima Island, Japan. Adv Remote Sens 4:25–34. https://doi.org/10.4236/ars.2015.41003
Schill SR, Raber GT, Roberts JJ, Treml EA, Brenner J, Halpin PN (2015) No reef is an island: integrating coral reef connectivity data into the design of regional-scale marine protected area networks. PLoS ONE 10:e0144199. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0144199
Siegel DA, Kinlan BP, Gaylord B, Gaines SD (2003) Lagrangian descriptions of marine larval dispersion. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 260:83–96. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps260083
Smagorinsky J (1963) General circulation experiments with the primitive equations I. The Basic experiment. Monthly Weather Rev 91:99–164. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1963)091%3c0099:GCEWTP%3e2.3.CO;2
Sudo K, Maehara S, Nakaoka M, Fujii M (2022) Projecting future shifts in the distribution of tropicalization indicator fish that affect coastal ecosystem services of Japan. Front Built Environ 7:788700. https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2021.788700
Sully S, Burkepile DE, Donovan MK, Hodgson G, van Woesik R (2019) A global analysis of coral bleaching over the past two decades. Nat Commun 10:1264. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09238-2
Sully S, Hodgson G, van Woesik R (2022) Present and future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change. Glob Change Biol (in Press). https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16083
Suzuki G, Arakaki S, Hayashibara T (2011) Rapid in situ settlement following spawning by Acropora corals at Ishigaki, southern Japan. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 421:131–138. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08896
Tegner MJ, Butler RA (1985) Drift-tube study of the dispersal of green abalone (Haliotis fulgens) larvae in the southern California Bight: implications for recovery of depleted populations. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 26:73–84
Teneva L, Karnauskas M, Logan CA, Bianucci L, Currie JC, Kleypas JA (2012) Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates. Coral Reefs 31:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-011-0812-9
Thompson DM, Kleypas J, Castruccio F, Curchitser EN, Pinsky ML, Jönsson B, Watson JR (2018) Variability in oceanographic barriers to coral larval dispersal: Do currents shape biodiversity? Prog Oceanogr 165:110–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2018.05.007
Uchiyama Y, Odani S, Kashima M, Kamidaira Y, Mitarai S (2018) Influences of the Kuroshio on interisland remote connectivity of corals across the Nansei Archipelago in the East China Sea. J Geophys Res Oceans 123:9245–9265. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014017
Usui N, Tsujino H, Nakano H, Matsumoto S (2013) Long-term variability of the Kuroshio path south of Japan. J Oceanogr 69:647–670. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-013-0197-1
van Hooidonk R, Maynard J, Tamelander J, Gove J, Ahmadia G, Raymundo L, Williams G, Heron SF, Planes S (2016) Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement. Sci Rep 6:39666. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep39666
van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
Watanabe M, Suzuki T, O’ishi R, Komuro Y, Watanabe S, Emori S, Takemura T, Chikira M, Ogura T, Sekiguchi M, Takata K, Yamazaki D, Yokohata T, Nozawa T, Hasumi H, Tatebe H, Kimoto M (2010) Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J Clim 23:6312–6335. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1
West JM, Salm RV (2003) Resistance and resilience to coral bleaching: Implications for coral reef conservation and management. Conserv Biol 17:956–967
Wooldridge SA, Done TJ, Thomas CR, Gordon II, Marshall PA, Jones RN (2012) Safeguarding coastal coral communities on the central Great Barrier Reef (Australia) against climate change: realizable local and global actions. Clim Change 112:945–961. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0229-z
Yara Y, Vogt M, Fujii M, Yamano H, Hauri C, Steinacher M, Gruber N, Yamanaka Y (2012) Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan. Biogeosciences 9:4955–4968. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-4955-2012
Yasuda N (2018) Distribution expansion and historical population outbreak patterns of crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster planci sensu lato, in Japan from 1912–2015. In: Iguchi A, Hongo C (eds) Coral Reef Studies of Japan. Springer, Singapore, pp 125–148
Young EF, Meredith MP, Murphy EJ, Carvalho GR (2011) High-resolution modelling of the shelf and open ocean adjacent to South Georgia, Southern Ocean. Deep-Sea Res II 58:1540–1552. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2009.11.003
Yukimoto S, Adachi Y, Hosaka M, Sakami T, Yoshimura H, Hirabara M, Tanaka TY, Shindo E, Tsujino H, Deushi M, Mizuta R, Yabu S, Obata A, Nakano H, Koshiro T, Ose T, Kitoh A (2012) A new global climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3—model description and basic performance. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II 90A:23–63. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-A02
Acknowledgements
This study was partially supported by the Climate Change Adaptation Research Program of the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan. This study was conducted as part of a “Regional Adaptation Consortium Project” by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and utilized the Future Ocean Regional Projection (FORP) dataset, which was produced by the Japan Agency for Marine Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) under the “SI-CAT” project (Grant Number: JPMXD0715667163) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. Calculations were performed by using the supercomputer system (HPE Apollo 2000) at the NIES.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Abe, H., Kumagai, N.H. & Yamano, H. Priority coral conservation areas under global warming in the Amami Islands, Southern Japan. Coral Reefs 41, 1637–1650 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-022-02309-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-022-02309-9