Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

An Optimization Method Based on Scenario Analysis for Watershed Management Under Uncertainty

  • Published:
Environmental Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that will be applied in the future. An optimization method based on scenario analysis is proposed in this paper as a means of handling watershed management under uncertainty. This method integrates system analysis, forecast methods, and scenario analysis, as well as the contributions of stakeholders and experts, into a comprehensive framework. The proposed method comprises four steps: system analyses, a listing of potential engineering techniques and countermeasures, scenario analyses, and the optimal selection of countermeasures and engineering techniques. The proposed method was applied to the case of the Lake Qionghai watershed in southwestern China, and the results are reported in this paper. This case study demonstrates that the proposed method can be used to deal efficiently with uncertainties at the watershed level. Moreover, this method takes into consideration the interests of different groups, which is crucial for successful watershed management. In particular, social, economic, environmental, and resource systems are all considered in order to improve the applicability of the method. In short, the optimization method based on scenario analysis proposed here is a valuable tool for watershed management.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Affum JK, Brown AL, Chan YC (2003) Integrating air pollution modelling with scenario testing in road transport planning: the TRAEMS approach. Science of the Total Environment 312:1–14

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chau KW (2004) A prototype knowledge-based system on unsteady open channel flow in water resources management. Water International 29:54–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark BT, Burkardt N, King MD (2005) Watershed management and organizational dynamics: Nationwide findings and regional variation. Environmental Management 36:297–310

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dórner S, Swayne DA, Rudra RP, Newald C (2001) Integrating parametric uncertainty and modeling results into an advisory system for watershed management. Advances in Environmental Research 5:445–451

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferng JJ (2002) Toward a scenario analyses framework for energy footprints. Ecological Economics 40:53–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo HC, Liu L, Huang GH, Fuller GA, Zou R, Yin YY (2001) A system dynamics approach for regional environmental planning and management: A study for the Lake Erhai Basin. Journal of Environmental Management 61:93–111

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hamed MM, El-Beshry MZ (2004) Uncertainty analysis in dissolved oxygen modeling in streams. Environmental Management 34:233–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hantush MM, Kalin L (2005) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of runoff and sediment yield in a small agricultural watershed with KINEROS2. Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques 50:1151–1171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He CY, Shi PJ, Li JG (2004) Scenario simulation land use change in the northern China by system dynamic model. Acta Geographica Sinica 59:599–607. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Heathcote IW (1998) Integrated watershed management: principles and practice. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Hubacek K, Sun L (2001) A scenario analyses of China’s land use and land cover change: incorporating biophysical information into input-output modeling. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 12(4):367–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hugues DJ (2000) A brief methodological guide to scenario building. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65(1):37–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Islas J, Manzini F, Martínez M (2003) Cost-benefit analyses of energy scenarios for the Mexican power sector. Energy 28(10):979–992

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jamieson D (1996) Scientific uncertainty: How do we know when to communicate research findings to the public? Science of the Total Environment 184:103–107

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Jutta B, Martin W (1988) A new method of scenario analyses for strategic planning. Journal of forecasting 7:31–47

    Google Scholar 

  • Kahn J, Wiener AJ (1967) The year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next 33 years. MacMillan Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Karjalainen T, Pussinen A, Liski J, Nabuurs G, Eggers T, Lapveteläinen T, Kaipainen T (2003) Scenario analyses of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget. Forest Policy and Economics 5(2):141–155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kronvang1 B, Svendsen LM, Jensen JP, Dørge J (1999) Scenario analysis of nutrient management at the river basin scale . Hydrobiologia 410:207–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Y, Guo HC, Wang LJ, Dai YL, Zhang XM, Li ZH, Bin H (2006) Dynamic phosphorus budget for lake-watershed ecosystems. Journal of Environmental Sciences 18:596–603

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lugo AE (2000) Effects and outcomes of Caribbean hurricanes in a climate change scenario. Science of The Total Environment 262:243–251

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Matsuoka U (1995) Scenario analyses of global warming using the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Energy Policy 23(4):357–371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohren GMJ (2003) Large-scale scenario analyses in forest ecology and forest management. Forest Policy and Economics 5(2):103–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morin DT (2004) An approach for integrating economic impact analyses into the evaluation of potential marine protected area sites. Journal of Environmental Management 70:333–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Muleta MK, Nicklow JW (2005) Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis coupled with automatic calibration for a distributed watershed model. Journal of Hydrology 306:127–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Müller-Wohlfeil DI, Jørgensen JO, Kronvang B, Wiggers L (2002) Linked catchment and scenario analyses of nitrogen leaching and loading: a case-study from a Danish catchment-fjord system, Mariager Fjord. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 27(9–10):691–699

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ogata K (2004) System dynamics (4th ed). Prentice-Hall Publishing

  • Önal H, Algozin KA, Isik M, Hornbaker RH (1998) Economically efficient watershed management with environmental impact and income distribution goals. Journal of Environmental Management 53:241–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pan WB, Tang T, Deng HB, Cai QH (2002) Lake ecosystem services and their ecological valuation -a case study of Baoan Lake in Hubei Province. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology 13(10):1315–1318. (in Chinese)

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pearman AD, (1988) Scenario construction for transportation planning. Transportation Planning and Technology 7:73–85

    Google Scholar 

  • Ratcliffe JS (1999) Scenario Building: A suitable method for strategic property planning? RICS Cutting Edge Conference, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Recknagel F, Hosomi M, Fukushima T, Kong DS (1995) Short- and long-term control of external and internal phosphorus loads in lakes: a scenario analyses. Water Research 29(7):691–699

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richard P, Scott C (1996) Water 2010, four scenarios for 21st century water systems. http://www.rmi.org/images/other/Water/W96-04_Water2010.pdf

  • Ringland G (1998) Scenario planning: managing for the future. John Wiley, New York, pp 3–15

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiftan Y, Kaplan S, Hakkert S (2003) Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system. Transportation Research Part D 8(5):323–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silberglitt R, Hove A, Shulman P (2003) Analyses of US energy scenarios: Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70(4):297–315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sohrabi TM, Shirmohammadi A, Chu TW (2003) Uncertainty analysis of hydrologic and water quality predictions for a small watershed using SWAT2000. Environmental Forensics 4:229–238

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Swarta RJ, Raskinb P, Robinsonc J (2004) The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analyses. Global Environmental Change 14:137–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thornton PK, Herrero M (2001) Integrated crop-livestock simulation models for scenario analyses and impact assessment. Agricultural Systems 70(2–3):581–602

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tracing C, Checking R (2002) Vensim PLE Personal Learning Edition User’s Guide Version 4:1–6

  • Wang X (2001) Integrating water-quality management and land-use planning in a watershed context. Journal of Environmental Management 61:25–36

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yamamoto H, Yamaji K, Fujino J (2000) Scenario analyses of bioenergy resources and CO2 emissions with a global land use and energy model. Applied Energy 66(4):325–337

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zheng Y, Keller AA (2006) Understanding parameter sensitivity and its management implications in watershed-scale water quality modeling. Water Resources Research 42:W05402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zou Y, Huang GH, Maqsood I (2004) Integrated rainfall-runoff simulation and factorial analysis approach for watershed systems modeling under uncertainty. Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China 14:54–59

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This paper was supported by the “National Basic Research (973) Program” Project (No. 2005CB724205) of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China. The authors are grateful to the editors, Dr. Nina Burkardt, and anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

    Yong Liu, Huaicheng Guo, Lijing Wang, Yongli Dai & Yingying Fan

  2. Environmental Resource and Forest Engineering, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA

    Zhenxing Zhang

  3. Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China

    Lijing Wang

Authors
  1. Yong Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Huaicheng Guo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Zhenxing Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Lijing Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Yongli Dai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Yingying Fan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Huaicheng Guo.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Liu, Y., Guo, H., Zhang, Z. et al. An Optimization Method Based on Scenario Analysis for Watershed Management Under Uncertainty. Environmental Management 39, 678–690 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-006-0029-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-006-0029-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation