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Cox model risk score to predict survival of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after ultrasound-guided ablation

  • Interventional Radiology
  • Published:
Abdominal Radiology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Purpose

To explore factors associated with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) after ultrasound-guided ablation and establish a model for survival risk evaluation.

Methods

Data from 54 patients with 86 iCCAs between August 2008 and October 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Cox regression were used to analyze the effects of clinical features on OS and PFS. Based on the variables screened by multivariable analysis, a model was established to predict the survival of the patients. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (timeROC) curve was constructed to evaluate the performance of this model. The model was further verified by bootstrap validation. The clinical usefulness of the model was evaluated by the decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

During follow up, 39 patients died and 49 patients developed recurrence. Pre-ablation CA199 level > 140 U/ml was the only independent predictor of poor PFS. Age > 70 years, early recurrence, maximal diameter of tumor size > 1.5 cm and pre-ablation CA199 level > 140 U/ml were significantly associated with poor OS. Then a model was established based on the above four variables. The areas under the timeROC curve (AUC) for 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 5-year were 0.767, 0.854, 0.791 and 0.848, respectively. After bootstrapping for 1000 repetitions, the AUCs were similar to the initial model. DCA also demonstrated that the model had good positive net benefits.

Conclusion

The established model in this study could predict the survival outcomes of the patients with iCCA after thermal ablation, but further research was needed to validate the results.

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Funding

This study has received funding by National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants No. 92059201].

Author information

Author notes

  1. Yueting Sun and Baoxian Liu have contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Medical Ultrasonics, Institute of Diagnostic and Interventional Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 58 Zhong Shan Road, Guangzhou, 510000, Guangdong Province, China

    Yueting Sun, Baoxian Liu, Hui Shen, Yi Zhang, Ruiying Zheng, Jiaming Liu, Hanliang Hu, Xiaoyan Xie & Guangliang Huang

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  1. Yueting Sun
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Contributions

YS: Conceptualization, Data curation, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Writing—original draft, Writing—review & editing. BL: Data curation, Writing—original draft, Writing—review & editing. HS: Data curation, Writing—original draft, Writing—review & editing. YZ: Data curation, Writing—original draft, Writing—review & editing. RZ: Data curation, Validation, Writing—review & editing. JL: Data curation. HH: Data curation. XX: Conceptualization, Investigation, Project administration, Funding acquisition, Supervision, Writing—review & editing. GH: Conceptualization, Data curation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing—review & editing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guangliang Huang.

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Sun, Y., Liu, B., Shen, H. et al. Cox model risk score to predict survival of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after ultrasound-guided ablation. Abdom Radiol 49, 1653–1663 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00261-024-04192-0

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