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A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009

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Abstract

The academic literature has focused largely on testing for long-run fiscal sustainability. In this exercise we formulate a flexible regression model that can be used to assess the sustainability of a more recent build-up of fiscal deficits and debt that would be of major concern to policy makers. The analysis of US data shows that, after adjusting for some fundamentals, the gross Federal debt–income ratio has been growing at an unsustainable rate of 4 % per year since 2007. The net debt–income ratio does not show such a significant trend. Since not all government assets are readily available to reduce debt, significant positive trends in the gross debt–income ratio calls for policy actions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, National University of Singapore, 1Arts Link, Singapore, 117570, Singapore

    Tilak Abeysinghe

  2. Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka

    Ananda Jayawickrama

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  1. Tilak Abeysinghe
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  2. Ananda Jayawickrama
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Correspondence to Tilak Abeysinghe.

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Abeysinghe, T., Jayawickrama, A. A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009. Empir Econ 44, 1129–1141 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-012-0584-2

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