Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The last decade in ecological climate change impact research: where are we now?

  • Review
  • Published:
Naturwissenschaften Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly affecting organisms and ecosystems. The amount of research and the number of articles in this field is overwhelming. However, single studies necessarily consider limited aspects. Hence, there is an increasing need for structuring the research approaches and findings in climate change research in order to direct future action in an efficient way towards research gaps and areas of uncertainty. Here, we review the current state of knowledge accumulated over the last 10 years (2003–2012) about impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. Almost 1,200 articles of the scientific literature listed in the ISI Web of Science are analysed. We explore the geographical distribution of knowledge gain, the studied taxonomic groups, ecosystems and environmental parameters as well as the applied methods. Several knowledge gaps arise. Most of the first authors of the analysed articles are residents of North America, Australia or Europe. A similar pattern is found for the study areas. Vascular plants and therewith forests are the most studied taxonomic group and ecosystem. The use of models to estimate potential impacts of climate change is well established in climate change impact research and is continuously developing. However, there is a lack of empirical data derived from experimental climate change simulations. In a rapidly evolving research landscape, this review aims at providing an overview of the current patterns of knowledge distribution and research demands arising from knowledge gaps and biases. Our results should help to identify future research needs and priorities.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Amano T, Sutherland WJ (2013) Four barriers to the global understanding of biodiversity conservation: wealth, language, geographical location and security. Proc R Soc B 280:20122649

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Araújo MB, Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Erhard M (2005) Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 11:1504–1513

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beier C, Beierkuhnlein C, Wohlgemuth T, Penuelas J, Emmett B, Körner C, Hd B, Hesselbjerg Christensen J, Leuzinger S, Janssens IA, Hansen K (2012) Precipitation manipulation experiments - challenges and recommendations for the future. Ecol Lett 15:899–911

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Botkin DB, Saxe H, Araújo MB, Betts R, Bradshaw RHW, Cedhagen T, Chesson P, Dawson TP, Etterson JR, Faith DP, Ferrier S, Guisan A, Skjoldborg Hansen A, Hilbert DW, Loehle C, Margules C, New M, Sobel MJ, Stockwell DRB (2007) Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. Bioscience 57:227–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buse J, Griebeler EM (2011) Incorporating classified dispersal assumptions in predictive distribution models – A case study with grasshoppers and bush-crickets. Ecol Model 222:2130–2141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cahill AE, Aiello-Lammens ME, Fisher-Reid MC, Hua X, Karanewsky CJ, Yeong Ryu H, Sbeglia GC, Spagnolo F, Waldron JB, Warsi O, Wiens JJ (2013) How does climate change cause extinction? Proc R Soc B 280:20121890

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Cardoso P (2011) Habitats Directive species lists: urgent need of revision. Insect Conserv Divers 5:169–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen I-C, Hill JK, Ohlemüller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333:1024–1026

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Elith J, Leathwick JR (2009) Species distribution models: Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 40:677–697

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • European Topic Centre on Biological Diversity (ETC/BD) (2008) Article 17 Technical Report (2001-2006). Annex J - Some specific analysis on conservation status

  • Fazey I, Fischer J, Lindenmayer DB (2005) Who does all the research in conservation biology? Biodivers Conserv 14:917–934

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Felton A, Fischer J, Lindenmayer DB, Montague-Drake R, Lowe AR, Saunders D, Felton AM, Steffen W, Munro NT, Youngentob K, Gillen J, Gibbons P, Bruzgul JE, Fazey I, Bond SJ, Elliott CP, Macdonald BCT, Porfirio LL, Westgate M, Worthy M (2009) Climate change, conservation and management: an assessment of the peer-reviewed scientific journal literature. Biodivers Conserv 18:2243–2253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischlin A, Midgley GF, Price JT, Leemans R, Gopal B, Turley C, Rounsevell MDA, Dube OP, Tarazona J, Velichko A (2007) Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University, Cambridge, pp 211–272

    Google Scholar 

  • Fronzek S, Luoto M, Carter TR (2006) Potential effect of climate change on the distribution of palsa mires in subarctic Fennoscandia. Clim Res 32:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guisan A, Tingley R, Baumgartner JB, Naujokaitis-Lewis I, Sutcliffe PR, Tulloch AIT, Regan TJ, Brotons L, McDonald-Madden E, Mantyka-Pringle C, Martin TG, Rhodes JR, Maggini R, Setterfield SA, Elith J, Schwartz MW, Wintle BA, Broennimann O, Austin M, Ferrier S, Kearney MR, Possingham HP, Buckley YM (2013) Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecol Lett 16:1424–1435

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harmeling S, Eckstein D (2012) Global Climate Risk Index 2013 - Who suffers most from extreme weather events? Weather-related loss events in 2011 and 1992 to 2011. Briefing paper. Germanwatch e.V

  • IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University, Cambridge, pp 7–22

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp

  • IPCC (2013) Summary for Policymakers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds.). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 27 pp

  • Jaeschke A, Bittner T, Jentsch A, Reienking B, Schlumprecht H, Beierkuhnlein C (2012) Biotic interactions in the face of climate change: A comparison of three modelling approaches. PLoS ONE 7:e51472

    Article  CAS  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Jentsch A, Beierkuhnlein C (2008) Research frontiers in climate change: effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems. CR Geosci 340:621–628

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jentsch A, Kreyling J, Beierkuhnlein C (2007) A new generation of climate change experiments: Events, not trends. Front Ecol Environ 5:365–374

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kissling WD, Dormann CF, Groenveld J, Hickler T, Kühn I, McInerny GJ, Montoya JM, Römermann C, Schiffers K, Schurr FM, Singer A, Svenning J-C, Zimmermann NE, O’Hara RB (2012) Towards novel approaches to modelling biotic interactions in multispecies assemblages at large spatial extents. J Biogeogr 39:2163–2178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Körner C, Basler D (2010) Phenology under global warming. Science 327:1461–1462

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lavorel S, Dìaz S, Cornelissen JHC, Garnier E, Harrison SP, McIntyre S, Pausas JG, Pérez-Harguindeguy N, Roumet C, Urcelay C (2007) Plant functional types: are we getting any closer to the Holy Grail? In: Canadell J, Pataki D, Pitelka L (eds) Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World. Springer, New York, pp 171–186

    Google Scholar 

  • Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, Ackerly DD (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature 462:1052–1055

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • McCarty JP (2002) Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conserv Biol 15:320–331

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer L (2011) Show me the money. Nature Clim Change 1:376–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peñuelas J, Sardans J, Estiarte M, Áogaya R, Carnicer J, Coll M, Barbeta A, Rivas-Ubach A, Llusiá J, Garbulsky M, Filella I, Jump AS (2013) Evidence of current impact of climate change on life: a walk from genes to the biosphere. Glob Change Biol. doi:10.1111/gcb.12143

    Google Scholar 

  • Roy DB, Sparks TH (2000) Phenology of British butterflies and climate change. Glob Chang Biol 6:407–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaw MR, Zavaleta ES, Chiariello NR, Cleland EE, Mooney HA, Field CB (2002) Grassland responses to global environmental changes suppressed by elevated CO2. Science 298:1987–1990

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Seo C, Thorne JH, Hannah L, Thuiller W (2009) Scale effects in species distribution models: implications for conservation planning under climate change. Biol Lett 5:39–43

    Article  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Tingley MW, Monahan WB, Beissinger SR, Moritz C (2009) Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 17:19637–19643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vedder O, Bouwhuis S, Sheldon BC (2013) Quantitative assessment of the importance of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation to climate change in wild bird populations. PLoS Biol 11:e1001605

    Article  CAS  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Vié J-C, Hilton-Taylor C, Stuart SN (eds) (2009) Wildlife in a Changing World – An Analysis of the 2008 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. IUCN, Gland, 157 pp

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the Federal Agency of Nature Conservation in Germany for funding this work (FKZ 3508 85 0600). We also thank four anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on an earlier version of this article.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Biogeography, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstr. 30, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany

    Anja Jaeschke & Carl Beierkuhnlein

  2. Disturbance Ecology, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstr. 30, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany

    Anke Jentsch

  3. LGL - Landesamt für Geoinformation und Landentwicklung Baden-Württemberg, Büchsenstraße 54, 70174, Stuttgart, Germany

    Torsten Bittner

Authors
  1. Anja Jaeschke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Torsten Bittner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Anke Jentsch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Carl Beierkuhnlein
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Anja Jaeschke.

Additional information

Communicated by: Sven Thatje

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Table S1

Search string for the literature study in the ISI Web of Science. The search was restricted to publications between 2003 and 2012. Relevant alternative suffixes were included using the asterisk * (DOC 28 kb)

Fig. S1

Development of the applied methods in scientific climate change impacts research in the ISI Web of Science between 2003 and 2012 (JPEG 210 kb)

Fig. S1

Development of the applied methods in scientific climate change impacts research in the ISI Web of Science between 2003 and 2012 (JPEG 210 kb)

Fig. S2

Correlation of the number of studies with a) the gross domestic product (GDP) of a country, b) the Climate Risk Index (CRI) of a country in 2011, and a correlation of the CRI against the GDP. Sources: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html (GDP, last accessed 30.08.2013) and Harmeling and Eckstein (2012) (Climate Risk Index 2011) (JPEG 2100 kb)

Fig. S3

High resolution image (EPS 732 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Jaeschke, A., Bittner, T., Jentsch, A. et al. The last decade in ecological climate change impact research: where are we now?. Naturwissenschaften 101, 1–9 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00114-013-1132-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00114-013-1132-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation