Abstract
By using Caterpillar-SSA analysis method, through the process of embedding, singular value decomposition, grouping and diagonal averaging, the seasonal precipitation trend at north Helan Mountain and Baiyinaobo regions, Inner Mongolia for the next 20 years is forecasted. The results show an increasing precipitation trend from 1992 to 2004. In the subsequent decade the precipitation should reduce quickly, and it will reach a minimum near 2012 to 2014 in both regions. The drought caused by the decrease of the precipitation from May to July in the north Helan Mountain area during the period of 2013–2014 is probably quite similar to that around 1929. Further, the period of precipitation gradual increase follows in the researched regions.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Shao Xuemei, Wu Xiangding, Reconstruction of climate change on Changbai Mountain, northeast China using tree-ring data, China Quaternary Research (in Chinese), 1997, 1: 76–85.
Shao Xuemei, Fan Jinmei, Past climate on West Sichuan Plateau as reconstructed from Ring-widths of dragon spruce, China Quaternary Research (in Chinese), 1999, 1: 81–89.
Liu Yu, Cai Qiufang, Won-Kyu Park et al., Tree-ring Precipitation Records from Baiyinaobao, Inner Mongolia since A.D. 1838, Chinese Science Bulletin, 2003, 48(11): 1140–1145.
Zhang Zhihua, Wu Xiangding, Reconstruction of climate variation in the last 700 years in the Qi Lian Mountain area using tree-ring data, Chinese Science Bulletin (in Chinese), 1997, 42(8): 849–851.
Liu Yu, Won-Kyu Park, Cai Qiufang et al., Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840: tree-ring evidence from China and Korea, Science in China, Ser. D, 2003, 46(10): 1031–1039.
Liu Yu, Ma Limin, Cai Qiufang et al., Reconstruction of summer temperature (June–August) at Mt. Helan, China, from tree-ring stable carbon isotope values since A. D. 1890, Science in China, Ser. D, 2002, 32(8): 667–674.
Liu Yu, Wu XangDing, Shao Xuemei et al., Seasonal precipitation and temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring density and stable carbon isotope, Science in China, Ser. D, 1997, 27(3): 271–277.
Liu Yu, Shi Jiangfeng, Vladimir Shishov et al., Reconstruction of May–July precipitation in the north Helan Mountain, Inner Mongolia since A. D. 1726 from tree-ring late-wood width, Chinese Science Bulletin, 2004, 49(4): 404–408.
Xu Guoxiang, Hu Qingyou, Statistical Forecasting and Decision (in Chinese), Shanghai: Press of University of Shanghai Finance and Economy, 1998, 1–418.
Golyandina, N., Nekrutkin, V., Zhigljavsky, A., Analysis of Time Series Structure: SSA and related techniques, New York: Hapman&Hall/CRC, 2001, 1–305.
Danilov, D., Zhigljavsky, A., Principal Components of Time Series: the Caterpillar method (in Russian), St. Petersburg: University of St. Petersburg Press, 1997, 1–307.
Elsner, J. B., Tsonis, A. A., Singular Spectral Analysis—A New Tool in Time Series Analysis, New York: Plenum Press, 1996, 1–163.
Broomhead, D. S., King, G. P., On the qualitative analysis of experimental dynamical systems (ed. Sarkar, S.), Nonlinear Phenomena and Chaos, Bristol: Adam Hilger, 1986, 113–144.
Peng Yongqing, Wang Panxing, Wu Hongbao, The Analysis and Application on Atmospheric Low-frequency Variation (in Chinese), Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1997, 1–344.
Wilkinson, J. H., The Algebraic Eigenvalue Problem, London: Oxford University Press, 1965, 1–676.
Ju Yuma, Hu Jinde, Lin Cuiqin et al., Linear Algebra (in Chinese), Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 1995, 1–363.
Shan Fei, Huang Wanyang, Zheng Yongbing, Linear Algebra (in Chinese), Shenyang: Press of University of North-East Finance and Economy, 2001, 1–210.
Huang Jiayou, Statistic Analysis and Forecast Methods in Meteorology, Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2000, 1–302.
Wang Xiaolin, Statistic, Beijing: China Economical Science Press, 2001, 1–466.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, Y., Shishov, V., Shi, J. et al. The forecast of seasonal precipitation trend at the north Helan Mountain and Baiyinaobao regions, Inner Mongolia for the next 20 years. Chin.Sci.Bull. 49, 410–415 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02900326
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02900326